中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院期刊网

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  • HUANG Zhehao, YANG Cunyi, LI Zhenghui
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(6): 1545-1567. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1728
    With the significant expansion of the breadth and depth of financial services for the real economy, the real sector's "be diverted out of the real economy" trend has become a structural contradiction, and the motivation and appropriateness behind the enterprise's financialization have become an urgent issue to be resolved. This paper starts from the enterprise's response to risk and uncertainty, as well as the financialization drive mechanism to pursue shareholder value, and constructs the optimization problem of the investment portfolio intending to minimize enterprise risk and maximize shareholder value, and then obtains the optimal allocation of financial assets under different objectives reflecting the relationship between enterprise risk, shareholder value and the non-linear relationship between the levels of enterprise financialization. On this basis, based on the fact that the enterprise's financialization driving mechanism reflects the characteristics of the financialization motivation, we start from the enterprise's asset allocation structure. Combined with the optimal allocation of financial assets under specific objectives, we propose the criteria for determining the enterprise's financialization motivation and the appropriate scope of the enterprise's financialization. Then, we selected the representative listed non-financial enterprises in China as a sample for empirical analysis:As for the identification of the motivation of financialization, this paper found that although the non-financial enterprise sector is still dominated by the "reservoir" motivation, the whole, the "investment substitution" motivation is more significant and cannot be ignored. There is heterogeneity among different industries and enterprises with different equity natures, among which the motivation of "investment substitution" in the wholesale and retail industry and real estate industry is significant, and the motivation of "investment substitution" in non-state-owned enterprises is significantly stronger than that in state-owned enterprises. Concerning the appropriateness of enterprise financialization, we find that the overall financialization appropriateness of the non-financial enterprise sector is low. Especially in the information technology industry and the power, gas, and water production and supply industry, the appropriateness of financialization is significantly lower than the average level, and the level of industry financialization is insufficient. In contrast, the wholesale, retail, and real estate industries have excessive financialization. The moderation of non-state-owned enterprises' financialization is significantly higher than that of state-owned enterprises, and there is also the phenomenon of excessive financialization. The conclusion of this paper provides guiding suggestions for financial investment decision-making and regulatory identification of enterprises.
  • WANG Yonggui, HONG Aoran, GUO Xiaoxiao, SHI Mengting
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(6): 1686-1708. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1450
    Customization, as an important customer value strategy for corporate development, is of great significance to the improvement of customer satisfaction and the increase of firm revenue. As digital technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud computing develop quickly, firms' customization practices and related academic research meet great opportunities and challenges. Based on this background, through systematic and comprehensive analysis of Chinese and English literatures on customization, this paper clarifies and analyses the definition and patterns of customization, the key influencing factors of customization capabilities, the performance outcomes and the corresponding theoretical mechanisms of customization strategy, and the boundary conditions of the effectiveness of customization strategy. On this basis, this paper then summaries an integrated research framework for customization literature and proposes future research directions for customization from the aspects of patterns, performance outcomes and their mechanism, influencing factors, and the new forms of customer customization in the digital environment, to provide a reference for the development of more in-depth and systematic customization theory, and to bring inspiration for understanding and guiding firms' customization practice.
  • MA Xiaoyu, HUANG Mingzhu, YANG Mengxi
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(9): 2484-2501. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2922
    In recent years, with the significant increase of various security risk events, the supply chain of a large number of enterprises has been impacted or even interrupted. Supply chain resilience has become the common focus of academy, industry and government. From the perspective of single and multiple configurations, this paper constructs research models for the influencing factors of supply chain resilience. Based on 622 valid samples of enterprises, this study applies structural equation model (SEM) and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) for empirical analysis. The research shows that: 1) Flexibility, agility, reconfiguration, visibility and supply chain cooperation can have positive impacts on supply chain resilience. 2) High flexibility, high agility, high reconfiguration, high visibility and strong cooperative relationship cannot be the necessary conditions for high supply chain resilience alone. 3) There are three driving configurations for high supply chain resilience, namely, high agility configuration consisting of agility * reconfiguration * supply chain cooperation, high visibility configuration consisting of ~flexibility * reconfiguration * visibility * supply chain cooperation, and agile visual dual configuration consisting of ~flexibility * agility * visibility * supply chain cooperation and flexibility * agility * visibility * reconfiguration. The high supply chain resilience is the synergy of multiple factors, and the effective combination of various factors promotes the supply chain resilience in the way of "different paths lead to the same goal". This research systematically discusses the influencing factors of supply chain resilience, which can provide theoretical guidance and managerial insight for enterprises to improve supply chain resilience.
  • XIONG Xiong, DI Jiahui, GAO Ya
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(7): 1873-1890. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1955
    With the release of China's "dual carbon goals", individual investors' green concerns gradually cause strengthened pressure on listed companies. Using the data of investor interaction platforms of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, this paper constructs green concern indicators based on a sample of 2048 listed companies and empirically reveals that individual investors' green concerns can promote green innovation in terms of quantity and quality. This influence is more pronounced in non-heavily polluting industries and those with no pollution charges and fewer environmental protection subsidies, individual investors' green concerns play a supplement role in the environmental regulation policies. Improving the construction of the green financial system and guiding individual investors' green investment concept can promote listed companies' green innovation behaviors.
  • CHENG Kaiming, WANG Guimei
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(3): 648-666. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1329
    This paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of urbanization affecting high-quality economic development using an urban-rural dual general equilibrium model including environmental factors, and empirically tests the actual effect of urbanization affecting high-quality economic development through industrial structure upgrading based on panel data of cities above the prefecture level in China. The results show that urbanization has a positive role in high-quality economic development represented by pollutant emissions per unit of GDP, and industrial structure upgrading has a significant mediation effect. Urbanization of eastern cities mainly inhibits environmental pollution emissions through mediation effect of industrial structure upgrading; urbanization of central and western cities has both direct and indirect effects on environmental pollutant emissions. Urbanization of provincial capital cities and non-provincial capital cities has a partial mediating effect on environmental pollutant emissions. The promotion effect of urbanization of provincial capital cities on high-quality economic development is significantly higher than that of non-provincial capital cities. In the future, it is necessary to continue to promote new urbanization, rationally optimize industrial structure, enhance the synergy between urbanization and industrial structure, and promote high-quality economic development.
  • ZHANG Ming, WANG Qiaoyu, ZHANG Lu, SONG Yan, ZHU Bangzhu
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(9): 2467-2483. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2825
    High-quality development focuses on total factor productivity. As a pioneer and demonstration zone of China's economic development, it is of great practical significance for national high-tech zones to effectively play a driving role in the region. Therefore, based on the data of Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2003--2018, the green total factor productivity was calculated as a measure of high-quality development. To alleviate the bias of the traditional DID model due to the neglect of policy spatial spillover, we constructed a spatial DID model to analyze the effect of the national high-tech zones on the green total factor productivity of local and neighboring cities. The results showed that the national high-tech zones increased the green total factor productivity. This policy had a clear promotion effect on cities without a national high-tech zone, and the effect was related to the original development level of the city and the spatial distance between cities; however, the cities with national high-tech zones has not shown a "strong team" or a "race to the top" spatial connection. In addition, the impact of national high-tech zones on regional green total factor productivity worked mainly through improving the regional innovation and entrepreneurship environment. Based on this, we suggest that the high-tech development highlands should to be created with national high-tech zones as the nodes, and the diversified regional cooperation system of national high-tech zones should to be built by breaking down the administrative boundaries.
  • LI Yongwu, WANG Baoling, WANG Yashi, WANG Shouyang
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(11): 3069-3089. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-0400
    In the context of the "double carbon" target, promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of economic and social development is a major systemic project. Developing renewable energy and improving energy efficiency will help to build a more efficient green energy system. Analyzing the effect of energy transformation has important reference value for formulating a reasonable carbon emission policy and achieving medium and long-term emission reduction targets. This study takes this as a starting point. Firstly, static panel and dynamic panel system generalized method of moments (GMM) are used to estimate the impact of energy transformation, renewable energy efficiency and non-renewable energy efficiency on major macroeconomic variables. Secondly, the intermediate production sector is subdivided into renewable energy production sector and non-renewable energy production sector. The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is constructed to analyze the short-term impact of energy transformation impact, renewable energy efficiency impact and non-renewable energy efficiency impact on major macroeconomic variables. The analysis shows that: 1) energy transformation promotes the transfer of resources between sectors, the output of renewable energy production sector will increase, while the output of non-renewable energy production sector and carbon emissions will decrease; 2) The improvement of two kinds of energy efficiency will produce economic expansion effect, but it will also produce energy rebound effect and increase carbon emissions; 3) At the end of the simulation period, the implementation of the carbon emission intensity policy will promote the growth effect of three shocks on output, but will also hinder the emission reduction effect and aggravate the rebound effect in the process of energy transformation. The implementation of the carbon tax policy will inhibit the rebound effect of two types of energy efficiency shocks on carbon emissions. In the process of energy transformation, we should rely on a reasonable carbon emission policy and formulate medium and long-term emission reduction targets. This study has important reference value for China to analyze the effect of energy transformation.
  • ZHU You, JIA Ran, WANG Gangjin, XIE Chi
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(3): 795-812. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-0815
    Supply chain finance (SCF), as a systematic financial service for all member enterprises in the supply chain, focuses on solving the financing problems of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). However, for a long time, the asymmetric information of relevant participants leads to frequent risks, and the risk assessment technology is relatively backward, which makes it difficult to effectively promote the service model. Therefore, the assessment of SCF risk has become a hot issue in the industry and academic circles. In this paper, the related documents of SCF risk assessment are taken as the research object, and knowledge is extracted from 152 Chinese documents and 61 English documents by using knowledge graph technology, and then visual analysis is carried out. On the one hand, the current research status of SCF risk assessment is explored, and it is found that the existing research has one-sided research perspective, single research object, small research data sample, and insufficient research model performance and interpretability. On the other hand, looking ahead to the research trends in SCF risk assessment, the main issues include the following to be explored in depth:1) How to collect structured, semi-structured and unstructured data from multiple sources, integrate them effectively, and share private data securely? 2) How to mine the SCF risk association knowledge from the massive data generated by Internet economic activities and extract risk features from it, to establish a high-dimensional and fine-grained SCF risk assessment index system? 3) How to use deep learning methods to improve the overall performance of SCF risk assessment models and ensure the interpretability of the models by resolving the importance and marginal effects of risk features?
  • LIAO Hua, WANG Fangzhi, TENG Meixuan
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(8): 2179-2194. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-0977
    Climate damage and adaptation are key modules in the integrated assessment modelling on climate-economy system, both of which will directly affect the stringency of climate policy. This paper explores the recent academic advancement in these two aspects. As for climate damage, an emerging strand of literature not only focuses on the overall impact of rising temperature on economic production, but also sheds more spotlights on how rising temperature can cause economic losses through shocks to capital stock, labor supply, technical change and natural capital. Although recent studies illuminate directions for improving damage function under varying degrees of temperature rise, enormous disputes still hang over the concrete settings of the damage function. Existing climate-adaptation models commonly resort to either adaptive investment or market mechanisms. However, additional examinations should be warranted of related constraints on adaptation to avoid overestimating the effects of climate adaptation, as well as the regional heterogeneity in adaptation strategies. Future research should take into account social damages caused by climate change, other climate risk characteristics in addition to rising temperature, and how they channel corresponding effects. Furthermore, more empirical studies are needed to help refine the constructions and calibrations of the damage function, and probability tools are called for to investigate the uncertainties of climate damage and adaptation, in a shared effort to provide references for guiding climate policy practices.
  • SHAO Shuai, XU Lili, YANG Lili
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(4): 958-983. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1418
    Using the social network analysis method, for the first time, this paper builds an exponential random graph model to identify and interpret the formation mechanism of China's carbon emission spatial association networks based on the investigation of the structural characteristics of the networks from 1998 to 2016. The results show that China's carbon emission spatial association networks can be divided into four major plates with different responsibilities and present an evident regional club distribution characteristic. Each plate experienced a recombination process to varying degrees during our sample period. In detail, provinces belonging to the net spillover plate decreased, while provinces belonging to the main benefit and net benefit plates all increased. Meanwhile, although provinces belonging to the broker plate changed, its total number remains unchanged. Moreover, the "carbon emission refuge" effect between regions weakened. Regions tend to participate in the spatial association "activities" of carbon emissions in the forms of "reciprocity" or "clusters," and the spatial association of carbon emissions has the phenomena of "feudal economy" and gradient fault. A high degree of openness, a clean and low-carbon energy structure, and improved energy efficiency are conducive to promoting more carbon emission reception relationships between regions. As energy structure upgrades, the spatial association pattern of carbon emissions has gradient flow trends from west to east and from north to south. The complementarity of inter-regional economic development modes in openness, economic agglomeration, industrial structure, and energy efficiency leads to forming the carbon emission spatial association networks. Thus, the strengthening of regional division and cooperation and close regional trade ties causes the network to present the feature of a "carbon" fate match across a thousand miles drawn by a thread. Therefore, accelerating the implementation of cooperation emission reduction policies, such as regional integration and carbon trading market, will effectively promote the realization of regional collaborative low-carbon transformation development.
  • ZHENG Qiaoqiao, WAN Liang, WANG Shanyong, LI Jun, WU Jie, SONG Malin
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(4): 941-957. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1210
    How to promote green transformation in social life and consumption is a key issue that governments should pay attention to and solve. Academics have paid extensive attention to the green transition of production mode. However, insufficient attention has been paid to the green transition of lifestyle and relevant empirical studies on the theme of green lifestyle are rare. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2019, this paper examines the impact of environmental regulations on residents' green lifestyles by constructing an econometric model and systematically explores the possible mechanism of environmental regulation on the green lifestyle. It is found that environmental regulation directly affects green lifestyles and can also positively affect residents' green lifestyles by improving the level of green technology innovation at the production level. In addition, green environmental awareness positively modifies the impact of environmental regulation intensity on green lifestyles. Heterogeneity analysis and robustness analysis further enrich the reliability of the conclusions and results of this study. This paper attempts to open the "black box" in which environmental regulations guide residents to form green lifestyles and provide a reference for government policy-making and guiding residents to form green lifestyles.
  • LAI Hongzhen, ZHOU Yanju, CHEN Xiaohong, HU Chunhua
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(9): 2502-2516. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2023-0071
    In light of recent events such as "sweatshops", "environmental pollution", and "child slave labor", it has become imperative for enterprises to shift their focus from solely pursuing short-term economic gains to fulfilling social responsibilities in order to achieve sustainable and high-quality development. Focusing on how to coordinate the participation of brand firms and suppliers in fulfilling the social responsibilities of the upstream supply chain and taking account of the prosociality and reference effects of consumers, we use differential game method to build the decision-making model of decentralized decision-making, centralized decision-making, and unilateral cost-sharing contract between brand firms and suppliers. Furthermore, we design the bilateral cost- and revenue-sharing contract to achieve perfect coordination of the supply chain. The results suggest that: 1) An increase in the proportion of prosocial consumers will prompt brand firms and suppliers to improve their efforts of fulfilling social responsibility. However, excessive reliance on brand reputation to determine the level of social responsibility performance of the upstream supply chain may reduce the willingness of supply chain members to fulfill their social responsibilities. 2) The unilateral cost-sharing contract encourages suppliers to improve the efforts of fulfilling social responsibility, but do not affect the brand firm's efforts of fulfilling social responsibility. The contract stimulates the improvement of brand goodwill and consumer reference prices, thus promote the increase of profits for brand firms and suppliers. Moreover, when the reference effect for the level of social responsibility fulfillment of the upstream supply chain has a significant impact on the formation of consumers' reference price, the reference price under this contract will instead be higher than the centralized decision-making model. However, the contract is difficult to promote brand firms and suppliers to jointly improve social responsibility performance, and cannot maximize the total profit of the supply chain. 3) When the revenue sharing ratio of brand firms is at a moderate level, it can promote both brand firms and suppliers to participate in a bilateral cost- and revenue-sharing contract, and coordinate the supply chain perfectly.
  • ZHANG Derong
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(3): 619-647. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-0303
    This paper focuses on the factors influencing China's economic growth since the reform period based on the rent dissipation perspective. This paper consists of the following four parts. Firstly, Analysis based on different data sets shows that the China's rapid economic growth is related to the low level of development in 1978, which puts forward the difficulties of China's economic transition today. Secondly, after the identification of the four stages of development since the reform period, we analyze the reason of China's high economic growth. The core is the market-oriented institutional change, in which process the local government plays an important role. Our regression analysis based on provincial level data agrees with our theory hypothesis. But the trend is changing in recent years, which destroys the incentive compatibility of economic growth and fiscal interest of the local government. Thirdly, we put forward the difficulties that China will face in the process of reform. Reducing the monopoly rent both in product markets and factor markets is very important to further the market-oriented reform. Finally, the difficulty of furthering China's economic reform is concludingly emphasized and policy suggestions are put forward.
  • LING Aifan, HUANG Xinrui, XIE Linli, YANG Xiaoguang
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(5): 1300-1319. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-0420
    How to correctly guide more capital to green projects and promote the transformation of enterprises to the green and low carbon emission have become a hot issue for the sustainable development of China. In this background, the paper proposes an equilibrium investment decision model with ESG investing and exogenous sudden shock. The theoretical results show that: 1) The expected return of portfolio is related to the ESG level from the market and the portfolio itself; 2) The impact of ESG level on the expected return of the portfolio is positively dependent on the degree of sudden shock when there is a sudden shock to the market. Using COVID-19 shock as a national experiment, all theoretical results are checked empirically by the stock funds data, and the impact mechanism of the ESG level on the fund performance are further analyzed. The empirical results are highly consistent with the theoretical prediction. The research of this paper will help guide social capital to the green and environmental protection projects of enterprises through ESG investment, or rather provide valuable helps for financial capital to promote green transformation of enterprises.
  • WU Yewei, ZHOU Linyu, LIU Ning
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(5): 1267-1284. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1505
    Green merger and acquisition (M&A) is an important mechanism to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goal, but its motivation and environmental effects remain unclear. This paper uses the quasi-natural experiment of the segmented implementation of the ambient air quality standard as the exogenous impact to test the impact of environmental regulation on green M&A decisions of listed?companies. It is found that the implementation of ambient air quality standards can significantly improve the probability of green M&A of heavily polluting firms, and cause a significant improvement on firms' green innovation achievements and environmental performance. Further research shows that the green M&As are not concentrated in target areas with relatively lax environmental regulation, which eliminates the alternative explanation of pollution transfer through green M&A. Meanwhile, the green M&As promoted by ambient air quality standard are characterized by low proportion of related M&A, high proportion of major M&A and low proportion of performance commitments, which goes some way towards indicating that green M&As are not a "greenwashing". Finally, the green M&As promoted by ambient air quality standard mainly occur in non-state-owned firms and firms with high external attention. This paper makes an in-depth analysis of green M&A behaviors, which has enlightening significance for understanding the specific coping strategies of firms under the pressure of environmental governance policy, and also provides a useful reference for deepening the reform of environmental governance system.
  • ZHU Bangzhu, ZHANG Haijing, LI Can, DAI Yunhao, WANG Ping
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(12): 3365-3384. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2930
    This paper uses the data of A-share listed companies in China during 2010-2019, and investigates the impacts of TMT faultlines on corporate social responsibility (CSR) by unbalanced panel fixed effect models. The results show that TMT faultlines have a significant negative impact on CSR. TMT faultlines negatively affect internal, external and positive CSR rather than negative CSR. TMT task-faultlines significantly reduce CSR, while TMT bio-faultlines have no significant effect on CSR. Corporate internal governance environment has a significant moderating effect on the relationship between TMT faultlines and CSR. CEO power intensifies the negative effect of TMT faultlines, while CSR committee and top management diversity inclusiveness weaken the negative effect of TMT faultlines. TMT faultlines can inhibit CSR by increasing agency costs and decreasing internal control quality. This paper reveals the importance of TMT construction and regulatory governance from the perspective of CSR, and provides empirical evidence for governments to formulate and improve corporate governance policies, and for firms to improve their social responsibility and enhance sustainable competitiveness.
  • MA Feng, HE Xiaofeng, LU Xinjie
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(10): 2827-2845. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-3239
    It is of great theoretical and practical significance to accurately model and forecast the volatility of financial assets in the complex and changeable financial market environment. Therefore, based on a variety of volatility decomposition methods, and embedded with the Markov regime-switching approach, this study reconstructs multiple new heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility models, and further takes Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF as the research object to compare the prediction accuracy of each model. The main empirical results are as follows. First, the model confidence set (MCS) test shows that the newly constructed model (MS-PHAR) combined with Markov regime-switching and quantile array volatility has the best predictive performance and various robustness checks confirm the above conclusion. Second, during the periods of high and low volatility, before and after the COVID-19 epidemic, and considering the leverage effect, the newly constructed MS-PHAR model still has a good performance.
  • LEI Xing, HU Xiaoxuan, WANG Guoqiang, LUO He
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(3): 889-909. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-0612
    Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) has gradually played an important role in border monitoring tasks. However, challenges remain in developing patrolling strategies of UAVs due to the limited flight duration of UAV, multiple types of border crossers and the observation behavior of the border crossers. To solve the above problems, first, a Stackelberg security game is modeled between multiple UAVs and border crossers. The patrolling strategies and crossing strategies are described based on the designed directed graph. Second, the equivalent relationship between the patrolling strategies and the marginal coverage of directed graph is proved, and the game is transformed into a linear programming problem. A two-stage mapping algorithm is then designed. Third, the transformation process from marginal coverage to the mixed strategy is described through an example, and computational experiments are constructed on the generated data sets from efficiency, effectiveness and robustness. The experimental results show that the linear programming problem can effectively deal with the computational challenges brought by the exponential patrolling strategies, and the patrolling strategies achieves a higher quality and has a strong robustness.
  • HE Peng, SHANG Qi, WANG Xianjia, WANG Tongyuan, CHEN Zhensong
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(8): 2366-2379. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2427
    To address the issues of information misrepresentation, false propaganda, and supervision difficulty in the e-commerce supply chain consisting of brands, MCNs, and e-commerce platforms under the background of “Live streaming+”, this paper first establishes a three-party game model based on evolutionary game theory, and then analyzes each player's game behavior and evolutionary stability strategy. Second, numerical simulation is used to investigate the influences of some key factors on the evolutionary trend of the dynamic system and its evolutionary stability strategy in terms of lower, medium, and higher return rate. It has been discovered that the standardized operation of the live streaming e-commerce supply chain is influenced by multiple factors. Under the lower return rate, no matter whether the e-commerce platforms supervise actively or not, brands and MCNs tend to operate in violation; under the medium and higher return rate, higher latent reputation loss, lower false propaganda factor, and lower trending channel effect would promote this system to evolve to the desired stable state. Finally, this paper puts forward constructive suggestions for the live streaming e-commerce supply chain to achieve standardized operations according to the practical operations.
  • LIU Erzhuo, FENG Haoming, LIU Fangge, HE Qing
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(3): 667-683. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-1636
    This paper investigates the impact of economic sanctions on the value added and global value chain position of the target countries, based on cross-country input-output tables and economic sanctions data from 1990——2018. The findings of this paper show that economic sanctions reduce the value chain participation and domestic value added of the target countries, moving them up the value chain and transforming them into resource-exporting countries. Longer duration and larger scale sanctions more significantly reduce the domestic value added of the target country. The impact of sanctions on value added is transmitted according to foreign value added, indirect value added, and domestic value added. In addition, the basic empirical results of this paper remain robust after using the instrumental variables approach and considering the conditions set by the difference in difference method and industry heterogeneity.
  • LI Genqiang, ZONG Zhigang, PAN Wenqing
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(10): 2749-2768. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1690
    The change of trade cost in services affects the cross-border flow of service elements, and under the division of global value chains, it can influence the production cost and final product price of each country through the input-output linkages and then affect the welfare of consumers. Based on WIOD database, this paper firstly calculates the level of China's trade cost in services from 2000 to 2014. On this basis, using global input-output price model and consumer welfare model, this paper examines the impact of the change of China's trade cost in services on consumer welfare in different countries from the perspective of equivalent variance and compensating variance. The results show that China's trade cost in services showed a downward trend from 2000 to 2014, with the most obvious decline in air transportation and financial services. The price effect of the change of China's trade cost in services on manufacturing industry is higher than that of service and agriculture, and the effect on knowledge-intensive manufacturing industry is the highest, followed by capital-intensive and labor-intensive manufacturing industries. The analysis of consumer welfare shows that the change of China's trade cost in services has improved consumer welfare of all countries, and it has brought more obvious welfare improvement to the United States, Japan, South Korea and Germany besides itself and the rest of the world. In terms of detailed service sector, distribution, postal transportation and finance and commerce services have the largest welfare effect among all services industry. Furthermore, international comparison shows that the welfare improvement to the rest of the world brought by the change of China's trade cost in services was about 3.3 times as much as that by the Unites States from 2000 to 2014, and China shows greater positive externality and provides more universal benefit to the world than the United States, Japan and the European Union. This paper can provide policy reference for further promoting the service trade openness and strengthening mutual cooperation among countries with the consensus of the community with a shared future for mankind.
  • HAO Jing, HE Feng, WANG Bowen
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(3): 725-739. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-2970
    Innovation plays an irreplaceable role in economic development and is the first driving force for enterprises development. Based on the non-financial listed firms in China from 2007 to 2019, this paper studies the impact of CEO overconfidence on company innovation, and analysis this effect through company financialization. We find that CEO overconfidence inhibits firm's R&D investment. Company financialization intensifies the inhibitory effect of CEO overconfidence on enterprise R&D investment. By further distinguish the heterogeneity of enterprises, we find that this effect is stronger in small-scale firms, non-state-owned firms and low transparency firms. Our result is robust after recalculating the explained variables and explanatory variables, replacing the regression model method, dealing with the potential endogeneity and sample selection bias. The results show that overconfident CEO prefer to invest in financial assets with high risk and fast return, which has a crowding out effect on company R&D investment and inhibits enterprise innovation. The conclusions of this paper can be applied to the practice of company governance, deepen the understanding of the relationship between CEO characteristics and enterprise innovation choice, and help to realize the high quality and development of enterprises.
  • YU Xinyao, ZHU Ning, MA Yanming, HE Zhengbing
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(3): 910-928. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-2849
    Bus system in the actual operation often suffers vehicle breakdowns, traffic jams and excessive passenger demands, which causes disruptions, i.e., delays or extra trips. When making a bus scheduling plan, considering the possible disruptions in advance can enhance the robustness of bus scheduling plan and reduce the cost of rescheduling. In view of the vehicle scheduling problem, we proposed two recovery methods including reassigning some trips and adjusting the start times of trips to handle these disruptions. Furthermore, we propose a vehicle scheduling model with disruptions for a robust scheduling plan, and design a row-and-column generation based heuristic algorithm for solving. During the solving process, we decompose the problem into the master problem and three sub-problems. The three sub-problems are solved by Bellman-Ford algorithm for the original routes, labeling method for the modified routes, and tabu search algorithm for the efficiency improvement, respectively. Finally, a series of comparative experiments show that the model proposed in this paper can provide a more robust bus scheduling plan and reduce the expected number of trip adjustments in disruptions, which reduce the workload of scheduling managers.
  • WAN Die, TIAN Yi
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(3): 755-771. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1341
    Using daily trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF option, the paper calculates the volume percentages of out-of-the-money (OTM), at-the-money (ATM), in-the-money (ITM) options and investigates the forecasting ability of each kind of option trading on the realized volatility of underlying ETF. The results show that OTM option trading can significantly promote the predicting power of HAR and HAR-CJ models. Further findings show that, the information of OTM option mainly comes from the deep-out-of-the-money (DOTM) option, while the non-DOTM option has weaker performance in forecasting volatility. Comparing with implied volatility, DOTM option has better performance in in-sample fitting and out-of-sample forecasting volatility. Among the DOTM options, call option has more information than put option, and the call option trading negatively relates to future volatility while the put option trading positively relates to future volatility. These results indicate that informed traders prefer to using DOTM option, and the opposite correlations of DOTM call and put option with future volatility are consistent with leverage effect. Our findings can be applied in improving current volatility forecasting models, and can also be helpful in optimizing governors' risk monitoring systems.
  • WANG Lianfen, LIANG Junyi, CHEN Xiangjie, ZHOU Saiqun
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(5): 1249-1266. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1046
    With the core of embodied carbon intensity, this paper constructs a comprehensive analysis framework of cross-border economic and carbon emission impacts, assessing the impacts of the Belt and Road on China's economy and environment. The results show that the demand of the Belt and Road places a more critical effect on China's value-added, carbon emission, and aggregate carbon intensity. Compared with other countries, the proportion of industries with high embodied carbon intensity in the demand of the Belt and Road is relatively higher, resulting in China's higher embodied carbon intensity, indicating that China has to benefit from specialization through more carbon emission. To achieve the vision of Green Belt and Road, South Asia is a key region. Mining and quarrying, petroleum, chemical and non-metallic mineral products, metal products are key sectors. The difference in supply chain production structure effect is the main reason for China's higher embodied carbon intensity, suggesting that the supply chain transformation plays a significant role in Green Belt and Road. This paper first systematically analyzes the economic and carbon emissions impacts of the Belt and Road on China through international trade, clarifying the challenge of building Green Belt and Road that is ignored in the previous literature and proposes three policy implications on key regional governance, key industrial governance, and transformation of the green supply chain. The comprehensive analysis framework of cross-border economic and carbon emissions effects proposed provides a methodological basis for other environmental indicators.
  • LI Dengfeng, WEI Anpeng
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(3): 841-856. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-2655
    Based on the consumers' perception gap between actual delivery time and promised delivery time, the problem of influence of government and consumer incentives on pricing and delivery channel selection of remanufacturing closed-loop supply chain is studied. In this paper, Stackelberg game theory is used to construct 6 decentralized decision-making models of supply chain for 6 combination scenarios of three incentive modes:No incentive, the government incentive, the consumer incentive, and two delivery channels:The manufacturer responsible for delivery and the retailer responsible for delivery. Then the analytical formulas of optimal wholesale price, optimal sales price, optimal actual delivery time, optimal recovery rate and optimal profits are obtained. By comparing the optimal values under different models and using numerical calculations, it is found that the government and consumer incentives can improve the recovery rate, the delivery time is shortened. When the retailer delivers goods, the recovery rate is larger and the delivery time is shorter. In addition, when the consumer incentive exit, the selling price and wholesale price will increase. According to the profit maximization, whether the goods are delivered by the retailer or the manufacturer depends on the strength of the consumer's incentive.
  • PAN Rongrong, LUO Jianqiang, YANG Zichao
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(11): 3110-3128. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1777
    Under the real demand that Chinese manufacturing industry is advancing to the high end, servitization empowered by digital technology has become an important strategy for manufacturing enterprises to achieve high-quality development, which can stimulate the innovation vitality and create new development opportunities, enabling them to provide customers with intelligent solutions that integrate products, software and services. This study firstly collects foreign and domestic literature that is closely related to digital technology and servitization, selects to form a sample database, and constructs a theoretical analysis framework. Secondly, on the basis of introducing the servitization and digital technology, the evolution trend of the digital servitization is revealed, and the realization approach of the empowerment is analyzed. Thirdly, based on the division of the value chain of manufacturing enterprises, this study expounds the application scenario of servitization empowered by digital technology from the perspective of front-end product innovation, middle-end hybrid product generation and back-end service innovation. Finally, the "double-edged sword" effect of the empowerment with potential value and risks is analyzed, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, and the future research directions of this topic are provided.
  • WANG Ligang, ZHANG Xi, LI Rui
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(8): 2195-2207. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-3135
    At the city level, this paper uses a quasi-natural experiment to study whether green performance appraisal motivates local governments to improve air quality, and then measures the efficiency of urban air pollution control based on super-SBM model, and further identifies the influencing factors of the efficiency of air pollution control. The empirical results show that the performance assessment of air pollution control significantly promote local governments to improve air quality, and the average annual PM$_{2.5}$ concentration of experimental cities decreased by 3.38% more than that of control cities. Secondly, in recent years, the efficiency of air pollution control in China has gradually declined, especially in the central and western regions. While foreign investment has a negative impact on air pollution control efficiency, the development level of science and technology service industry has a positive impact on air pollution control efficiency, and the impact of science and technology investment level is not significant. Therefore, this paper proposes that China should maintain the performance appraisal system of air pollution control as a long-term system, and raise the admittance threshold of “two high” type industries in air pollutant discharge, so as to promote local governments to control air pollution. In addition, the city needs to increase investment in green science and technology and vigorously develop science and technology services to promote the green transformation of the city.
  • LIU Zhifeng, ZHANG Zipang, DAI Pengfei, LIU Wenhua
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(3): 740-754. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-0458
    Based on the GARCH-S model and the time-varying spillover index model, this paper studies the spillover effect of crash risk between China's carbon market and stock market industries and its influential factors. Our empirical results find that:1) There is a two-way spillover effect of crash risk between the carbon market and the industry stocks, and industry stocks have a greater spillover effect on the carbon market; 2) The extent of crash risk spillover and volatility risk spillover is roughly the same; 3) The occurrence of the COVID-19 epidemic has significantly increased the degree of the crash risk spillover effects; 4) The crash risk spillover is significantly affected by investor sentiment and economic policy uncertainty:The lower the investor sentiment or the more uncertain economic policy, the greater the overall spillover risk; 5) Quantile regression results show that the influence of investor sentiment and economic policy uncertainty is heterogeneous at different quantiles.
  • JIANG Danling, PENG Xun, ZHU Hongquan
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(7): 1891-1909. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1974
    We provide the first systematic analysis of the stock return lead-lag effect among firms connected through shared analyst coverage in China's A-share markets. We measure the shared analysts-weighted average returns of connected firms (CF) and show that CF is a significant positive predictor of future returns of the focal firms in the following one to 12 months. The CF-return-based long-short portfolio earns an abnormal return of 10% to 12% per year. The effect is robust to controls for the industry and geographic momentum effects. Further evidence shows that the CF momentum spillover effect is stronger when the focal firm shares more analysts with connected firms, is covered by more non-star analysts or analysts with lower levels of education, or is held by more stress-resistant institutional investors. Our findings contribute to the cross-asset momentum literature by documenting a new, strong, and long-lasting momentum spillover effect in the Chinese stock markets.
  • DING Shijie, LIANG Zhipeng, CHEN Jinyu
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(8): 2222-2235. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2462
    Integrating the DY spillover index and BK spillover index methods, this paper examines the time-frequency spillover effects between climate policy uncertainty, energy and metal markets, and constructs a spillover network model to portray the cross-market risk contagion paths between climate policy uncertainty, energy and metal. The results show that there are significant spillover effects between climate policy uncertainty, energy and metal markets, and they are mainly high-frequency spillovers. The spillover effects between climate policy uncertainty, energy and metal markets are time-varying and vulnerable to extreme emergencies. In the event of extreme contingencies, low-frequency spillovers can overtake high-frequency spillovers as the main driver of spillovers between climate policy uncertainty, energy and metal markets. In different frequency domains, clean energy markets are the exporters of spillovers and conventional energy markets are the recipients of spillovers. In addition, climate policy uncertainty plays an important nodal role in the cross-market spillover mechanism, and cross-market risk is transmitted along the path of “clean energy → metal markets → traditional energy”, fueled by climate policy uncertainty.
  • FANG Kuangnan, LI Jingmao, FAN Xinyan, YU Lean
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(5): 1320-1332. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-2526
    When building credit scoring models for new products or businesses, financial institutions often encounter the "high-dimensional, small samples" problem which results in unsatisfactory model performance. We propose a credit scoring method for small and micro enterprises based on a multi-source transfer learning technique. This method can transfer knowledge from other data sources (source domains) to improve the prediction performance of the credit scoring model of the target domain. Specifically, we first extract the multi-form knowledge from each source domain and then incorporate the information into the building process of the target domain model. The proposed method can take full advantage of the knowledge from source domains, and improve the prediction accuracy of the target domain model. In addition, throughout the modeling process, there is no need to obtain the original data of each source domain, which greatly reduces the risk of privacy leakage during data transmission. Simulation studies and real data analysis illustrate the superior performance of the method on variable selection, estimation, and prediction aspects. This method can effectively transfer the source domain information under privacy-preserving constraints to overcome the "high-dimensional, small samples" problem in the target data set.
  • DONG Jiemiao, HU Yi, YU Zhuangxiong
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(10): 2769-2786. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2739
    Based on the customs trade database from 2000--2015, this paper identifies Chinese firms' tendency to export competitive strategies and examines the impact of internal and external product networks on firms' changing competitive strategies and their mechanisms. It is found that firms generally adopt cost-competitive strategies to participate in exports, but firms can reduce their cost-competitive tendencies by converging on internal and external networks. And when both convergence levels reach a high level, firms can shift from cost-based competence to quality-based competence. The mechanism analysis shows that higher product quality differentiation and greater market demand will weaken firms' cost competitive tendency; proximity to external product networks weakens cost competitive tendency mainly through the channel of strengthening product quality differentiation, and proximity to internal product networks improves quality competitive tendency mainly through the channel of strengthening export market demand. The heterogeneity analysis shows that this network effect is more effective for new entrants and domestic firms but is weakened by policy support, as the impact of information flow will be limited by the fluency of knowledge extraction, transfer and diffusion. The findings of the study not only reveal the feasibility of enterprises using information flow of product networks to enhance export competitiveness, but also suggest more diversified thinking on the optimization of industrial policy implementation.
  • SHEN Dehua, YU Xinlei, ZHANG Wei
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(3): 706-724. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-2202
    Regarding WeChat as the representative of social media, we examine the Chinese stock market reaction to stock recommendations issued on the folk WeChat account from 2012 to 2018 with the method of event study. The empirical results show:1) There exists a significantly positive abnormal return on the days when recommendations are released, but it starts to drop at once, becoming negative ultimately. The cumulative abnormal return reverses completely within the event period, which plunks for price pressure hypothesis (PPH). 2) After dividing the total sample into two subgroups according to the reports number of stocks, we find the more stocks are reported, the stronger market response there will be. 3) Repeating the similar work according to the article words number, we surprisingly find the less words number stocks have, the greater market reaction there will be. Besides, more reports and article words indicate more media attention. However, based on the different performances of two subcategories, we conclude that only more reports number but less article words can enhance investor attention, which to some extent proves that it is not media attention but investor attention that directly causes the abnormal market performance, meanwhile providing empirical evidence for the limited investor attention.
  • LI Guohao, XIAO Jin
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(8): 2208-2221. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2751
    Understanding the driving factors of China's power sector decarbonization and the role of carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) in the process of power sector decarbonization can help to formulate and improve policies related to power sector decarbonization to fulfill China's commitment to the international community. Based on a self-developed power sector $\rm CO_2$ emissions dataset, this study conducts a decomposition analysis of the driving factors of China's power sector $\rm CO_2$ emissions changes from the perspective of ETS implementation and analyzes the mechanism of these driving factors in the process of ETS promoting decabonization in power sector. The results show that the accelerated decarbonization process of China's power sector after the implementation of the ETS is mainly due to the slowdown in economic growth, the continuous optimization of the power generation structure, and the gradual increase in the efficiency of power generation and power consumption. The ETS has accelerated the process of decarbonization of China's power sector, and it mainly works by promoting the efficiency of power generation and electricity consumption. The research conclusions can clarify the priority and focus of policies related to decarbonization of China's power sector in the context of the ETS construction.
  • XIANG Yuangao, LUO Jinhui
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(6): 1568-1596. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2404
    This study investigates the effect of common ownership on the convergence of corporate governance characteristics in Chinese A-share listed firms using a pair model. Our analysis indicates that firms with common ownership exhibit greater convergence in their governance characteristics. We then identify that the convergence effect is stronger when firms have better internal information environments or weaker external ones, suggesting that common shareholders are better able to obtain and share internal governance information. Additionally, we find that higher common ownership levels and increased industry competition lead to more significant convergence, highlighting the importance of collaborative motivations of common owners. Furthermore, our mediating analysis shows that sharing board members, members of the board of supervisors, and executives mediates the relationship between common ownership and governance characteristic convergence. Finally, we conduct a series of cross-sectional analyses based on common owner and firm characteristics. Our research contributes to the literature by shedding light on the inter-firm governance effect of common ownership.
  • HUANG Xiaodi, ZENG Yan, DAI Yun, WANG Shouyang
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(3): 684-705. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2075
    By providing direct dialogue and real-time interaction between investors and managers, tone at earnings communication conferences is difficult to fully prepare and is proven to be predictive of future performance and can result in significant market reactions. Based on the lockup expiration events of listed companies, this paper studies whether salient insider trading incentive drives tone management at earnings communication conferences. In particular, we innovatively explore the timing, cause, purpose, and effect of tone management. 1) Timing:Controlling for firm performance, managers adopt a significantly more positive tone in the most recent earnings communication references held just before the lockup expiration compared to those held at other times; 2) Cause:The abnormal tone is positively associated with the ex-ante selling incentives of restricted shareholders; 3) Purpose:The abnormal tone at earnings communication conferences held just before the lockup expiration cannot predict the future performance, suggesting that the abnormal tone does not have incremental information and managers attempt to mislead the market by overly positive tone; 4) Effect:The market reaction to the abnormal tone of earnings communication conferences held just before the lockup expiration is insignificant. The above results show that significant insider benefits, such as cash-out opportunity at lockup expiration, can drive tone management even in real-time interactive earnings communication conferences. However, due to the rational expectation of investors, the tone management does not serve managers' purpose of misleading the market. It implys that the Chinese financial market has a certain degree of effectiveness.
  • LIANG Ruobing, LIU Bo, SUN Yuehong
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(3): 813-823. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-2266
    Empirical loss landscape analysis is critical to reveal reasons why deep networks are easily optimizable, and has aroused considerable interests in machine learning and mathematical optimization. The main goal of this investigation is to provide a comprehensive state-of-the-art review of the empirical loss landscape analysis, including number and spatial distribution of local minima, connectivity between global optima, global optimality of critical points, convergence of gradient descent, and visualization of empirical loss landscape. This review also identifies challenges and highlights opportunities for future work.
  • XU Pu, LIU Tianliang, SI Bingfeng
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(5): 1484-1498. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2417
    Most of the existing studies on modeling rail transit commute behavior did not consider the impact of the time-varying time utility preference, and the empirical results were mainly derived from the stated preference survey data. With the analysis of morning rail transit commuters' time-of-use decisions, multinomial logit, mixed logit and nested logit models are formulated to describe morning rail transit commuters' discrete choice of arrival time under the constant-step and constant-affine travel utility preference assumptions, and the smart card data and train timetable data from Tuqiao Station to Sihuidong station on the Beijing Subway Batong Line in October 2017 are synthesized for model validation and parameter estimation. By distinguishing between two riding behaviors at the starting station, i.e., taking the latest train or waiting for the second train to get a seat, the model can address self-selection bias caused by directly using the revealed preference data of smart card for parameter estimation, i.e., commuters would prefer to depart at the time when the train is more crowded. Econometric results show that the models under constant-step travel utility preference perform better than that under constant-affine according to the value of goodness of fit, and the estimation results of the three discrete choice models are relatively consistent. That is, the unit time cost of arriving late is greater than that of arriving early and the in-vehicle crowding cost per unit time is about 11% of in-vehicle travel cost when standing 5 passengers per square meter. The impact of commuter heterogeneity in daily commuting features on travel utility preference is also discussed.
  • ZHANG Yun, FANG Xia, YANG Zhenyu
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(8): 2284-2303. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2859
    Improving enterprises' technological innovation capacity is the key to the high-quality development of China's economy and the improvement of China's core competitiveness. This paper incorporates digital finance and corporate risk-taking into an endogenous growth model that includes the financial sector, as well as deduces and analyzes the mechanism by which digital finance drives enterprise technological innovation from a risk-taking perspective. On this basis, the empirical test is carried out using data of A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2020. It has been discovered that corporate risk-taking is an efficient channel for encouraging technological innovation in businesses. This paper attempts to collect relevant data using crawler technology in order to construct a digital financial development index, and it confirms that digital finance plays a significant role in increasing patent applications through corporate risk-taking. Furthermore, according to heterogeneity analysis, digital finance improves the risk-taking level of high-tech enterprises, enterprises with CEOs with a background in R&D, enterprises with low financial supervision, low financial development regions, and high reliance on external financing, and significantly promotes R&D innovation activities. The study expands the mechanism of digital finance's impact on enterprise technological innovation and provides critical insight for corporate governance and regulatory system design.