中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院期刊网

28 September 2025, Volume 45 Issue 9
    

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  • Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 0.
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  • Chenxin XIE, Youchao TAN, Wenjing LI, Zifeng WANG
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 2811-2830. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2023-2287
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    This paper examines the impact of emerging technology-oriented venture capital on corporate innovation by analyzing pre- and post-listing samples of A-share companies. The study finds that technology-oriented venture capital significantly enhances both the quantity and quality of innovation in the invested companies through post-investment technological empowerment. This effect is sustained over time and exhibits an innovation imprint. Mechanism tests show that technology-oriented venture capital institutions promote corporate innovation through human capital support mechanisms and innovation network support mechanisms. Further research reveals that the innovation-enhancing effect of technology-oriented venture capital is influenced by the heterogeneity of the venture capital institution’s characteristics and investment situation. Specifically, the impact on corporate innovation is more pronounced when the venture capital institution has a lower reputation, intervenes earlier, invests in more rounds, maintains a higher level of focus, and is geographically closer to the invested company. This paper reveals that technology-oriented venture capital is more effective than traditional venture capital in enhancing corporate innovation, providing breakthroughs and decision-making references for guiding which type of venture capital can better support the advancement of national innovation strategies.

  • Lei CHEN, Lijun HU, Junwei SHI, Fang HE
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 2831-2852. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2024-0417
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    The Yangtze River Economic Belt is a major national strategic development area. Green and innovation development is one of its important missions. This article combines panel data of Chinese cities from 2008to 2022 and uses a double difference model to examine the impact of the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt on the performance of green technology innovation. The results indicate that the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt can effectively improve the green technology innovation performance of the areas along the route. Mechanism analysis finds that environmental regulations, industrial agglomeration, foreign direct investment, and government subsidies are effective paths for the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt to promote the performance of green technology innovation. Heterogeneity analysis finds that the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt has a more significant promoting effect on the performance of green technology innovation in cities along the Yangtze River, coastal cities, large cities, and downstream cities. This article integrates the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the performance of green technology innovation into a unified analytical framework, analyzes the impact and mechanism of national strategies on the performance of green technology innovation, and provides important policy implications for how to adjust strategic regulation methods in the next stage and promote high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

  • Hongyan JIANG, Mengting ZHANG, Heyan SHANG, Jing ZHANG
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 2853-2871. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2024-0618
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    Under the major strategic decision and deployment of Healthy China, the development of health industry has risen to the level of national strategic science. In order to clarify the impact of health industry policies on the innovation performance of enterprises, this paper selected the open source polices on the health industry as the research object to test the impact of health industry policies on enterprise innovation performance. The research shows that: from the overall level, the health industry policy can significantly improve the innovation performance of enterprises; however, for enterprises with different attributes, industrial policy has obvious heterogeneity effect, that is, the promotion effect on state-owned enterprises and high-capital density enterprises is more significant; there are some differences in the innovation-driving effects of the three kinds of policy tools, among which the innovation-driving effect of environmental policy tools is more obvious, and the supply-oriented policy tools have a significant inhibitory effect on innovation performance. This study not only enriches and expands the relevant research on health industrial policy and enterprise innovation performance, but also provides useful reference for the government to formulate and implement health industrial policy and the implementation of the strategy of promoting healthy China.

  • Juan ZHONG, Yifan DING, Yanjie WEI
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 2872-2892. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2024-0605
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    Social credit, as a core element of the institutional environment, is not only the internal foundation for building trust among market entities, but also an important guarantee for optimizing corporate financing channels and improving resource allocation efficiency. This article uses the exogenous impact of the pilot reform of the social credit system to examine the impact and mechanism of the construction of the social credit system on the cost of equity capital of enterprises. Research has found that the construction of a social credit system can significantly reduce the cost of equity capital for enterprises. After a series of robustness tests such as parallel trends, placebo, and considering heterogeneity treatment effects, the financing relief effect still holds. Mechanism testing shows that alleviating information asymmetry, curbing management’s self-interest behavior, and resolving operational risks are the key to reducing the cost of equity capital for enterprises in the construction of a social credit system. Heterogeneity testing shows that the impact of social credit system construction on the cost of equity capital of enterprises is more prominent in private enterprises, enterprises with high operational uncertainty, poor social credit atmosphere, and regions with low marketization level and high degree of credit fragmentation. In addition, the construction of the social credit system has brought about a decrease in the cost of equity capital for enterprises, which not only alleviates financing constraints but also further optimizes investment behavior and ultimately promotes high-quality development of enterprises. This article not only deepens the theoretical understanding of the logical relationship between social credit and the financing capacity of micro entities, but also provides important basis and policy inspiration for solidly promoting the construction of institutionalized credit system, improving the financing environment of enterprises, and promoting economic transformation and upgrading.

  • Guojin CHEN, Xiaofang XU, Xiangqin ZHAO
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 2893-2911. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2024-1488
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    In this paper we incorporate natural disaster shocks into a general equilibrium model with production and finance linkage among firms to analyze the propagation of natural disaster shocks in the economy. We then use the input-output tables provided by the National Bureau of Statistics of China to test the theoretical results. We find that: 1) Natural disaster shocks not only directly negatively affect the sales of affected firms but also indirectly impact upstream and downstream firms through production network linkages; 2) finance linkages play a crucial role in the propagation of natural disaster shocks, as affected firms adjust the supply and demand of trade credit under financial pressure, thereby influencing the financing environment and production efficiency across the supply chain; 3) product complementarities amplify the transmission effects of natural disaster shocks within production networks; 4) firms with low upstreamness, centrality in the network suffer relatively greater negative indirect impacts from natural disaster shocks.

  • Zheng QIAO, Rongsheng ZHUO, Yao GE, Yangshu LIU
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 2912-2933. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2023-1960
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    Corporate fundamentals consist of multidimensional information that affects operation and development of firms, such as financial data and non-financial data. Different from the existing research on market anomalies of single indicators at the firm level, this paper attempts to utilize machine learning methods to integrate the information of 50 dimensional fundamental variables and to innovatively predict the intrinsic valuation of firm. We construct a valuation mismatch indicator by comparing the difference between predicted corporate value and the real market value. This article tries 4 linear machine learning models (RIDGE, LASSO, ELASTICNET, PCR)and five nonlinear models (DT, RF, GBDT, XGBOOST, FNN) one by one, and further integrates the algorithmic models to aggregate the predictive ability of multiple machine algorithms as the final valuation mismatch indicator. The results show that market long-short portfolios constructed based on the valuation mismatch measure can earn up to 32% raw annualized returns and 22% Fama-French 5-factor adjusted annualized returns. This valuation mismatch anomaly is more significant in stocks with limited investor attention and higher limits to arbitrage, which act as potential explanatory mechanisms for the valuation mismatch anomaly. Further analysis reveals that the valuation mismatch anomaly is affected by certain macroeconomic state changes, and that firm-level valuation mismatch indicators can predict the occurrence of future firm-level real risk events as well as market-level changes in systemic financial risks. This paper proposes a new enterprise intrinsic valuation mismatch indicator and reveals the accompanying market anomalies, which is instructive for preventing and resolving financial risks and enhancing the information efficiency of China’s capital market.

  • Cong SUI, Enmao LIU, Wenjun WANG
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 2934-2949. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2024-0182
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    This paper studies the implied information of risk-neutral higher-order moment risk moment term structure in the crude oil market. Firstly, we theoretically analysed the relationship between different types of risk-neutral moments and the differences in information content. Secondly, we developed the predictive effect of risk-neutral higher-order central moments and forward higher-order moments of different maturities on the crude oil market. Our results show that risk-neutral higher-order moments have a significant predictive effect, and their influence weakens with increasing maturity. Secondly, the predictive direction of risk-neutral third-order central moments reverses as the maturity increases. Thirdly, using principal component analysis (PCA) and auto regressive moving average (ARMA) models, it extracts the risk-neutral higher-order moment maturity structure factors and their term premium. Empirical results show that the term structure factors and their term premium imply future information in the crude oil market. Finally, we categorized the slope and curvature factors with clear geometric meanings, and comparesd the differences in market economic variables and future trends under different categories. Market conditions determine the shape of the risk higher-order moment term structure, reflecting diverse market expectations.

  • Wang XIANG, Guoxuan MA
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 2950-2961. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2024-0941
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    This study delves into the issue of asymmetric information regarding bidders’ identities in auctions. We construct a first-price sealed-bid auction model involving two bidders, where one bidder may be an expert, possessing more information than his opponent. We delineate the Bayesian Nash equilibrium of this game. Additionally, we incorporate a signaling mechanism to depict potential communication regarding identity among bidders. We find that under the assumption of truth-telling, the non-expert bidder can attain higher returns by revealing his identity, leading to a separating perfect Bayesian equilibrium. Conversely, under the assumption of cheap talk, the expert bidder consistently aims to deceive others into perceiving him as a non-expert, while the non-expert bidder may also attempt to deceive others into perceiving him as an expert. This perpetuates the existence of asymmetric information regarding identity.

  • Ruirui CHAI, Gang LI, Tianhua WANG, Jiahe CHEN, Ning ZHAO
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 2962-2978. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2024-0003
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    Under extreme disaster situations, the traditional bureaucratic emergency management model has many problems, such as serious misallocation of resources, information asymmetry, lack of dynamic adjustment ability and so on. The intelligent emergency mutual aid information platform relies on the interactive socialized emergency rescue model to provide new ideas for solving these problems. Based on the view of physical-social-information triple spatial resources, this paper has constructed a differential game model for the dynamic allocation of emergency resources between help-seekers and rescuers, and analyzed the influence of important parameters, such as information sharing, the random interference with insufficient or distorted information, emergency rescue time and efficiency factor of resource allocation, on the equilibrium decision-making and utility steady state of resource allocation between help-seekers and rescuers. This paper also explores the role of heterogeneity of help-seekers’ informational ability on the behavioral decision-making and system utility of participants. The study shows that: 1) Under the condition of random interference factors such as insufficient or distorted information on the platform, the amount of emergency mutual aid resource allocation of help-seekers and rescuers will decrease, and the utility will also be restrained and reduced. 2) As participants share more information on the platform, more resources will be devoted to help-seekers and rescuers, which can effectively enhance the level of resilience and security in disaster relief. 3) Only when the degree of information sharing is large, the amount and utility of resource allocation between the two groups increase with the increase of resource allocation efficiency factor, and it is independent of the heterogeneity of the assistance-seekers. 4) It is not always wise to recognize the heterogeneity of the informational ability of help-seekers. When the informational ability of the help-seekers is at a low level and below a certain threshold, identifying the heterogeneity can improve the allocation of emergency resources and system utility of the participants by accurately locating requirements and individualized response; as the informational ability of the help-seekers gradually increases, the homogenization of the help-seekers is more helpful to achieve accurate resource matching and uniform resource allocation. This study provides theoretical support for improving the resilience of disasters through research on the maximum allocation and dynamic optimization of emergency mutual aid resources in the emergency mutual aid information platform.

  • Yige ZHANG, Haibo KUANG, Fangping YU, Min WAN, Jianzhao LI
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 2979-2994. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2023-2169
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    Promoting the application of blockchain electronic cargo delivery platforms for ports and shipping has become the current key in improving the efficiency of customs clearance and the transparency of shipping logistics at present. However, the regularity of investment and government subsidy for blockchain electronic cargo delivery platform is still unclear. For this reason, this paper constructs a shipping supply chain system consisting of a port, two shipping companies and a series of shippers. First, four game models are analysed for the traditional container discharge scenario, the port investment in blockchain electronic cargo delivery platform scenario, the shipping company investment in blockchain electronic cargo delivery platform scenario and a third party (not a port or shipping company) investment in blockchain electronic cargo delivery platform scenario. It is found that compared with the traditional container discharge model, both port investment, shipping company investment and third-party investment in blockchain electronic cargo delivery platform improved port clearance efficiency and shipping logistics transparency. When the investment efficiency is within a certain threshold, the member benefits of the port and shipping system decrease with the increase of investment efficiency, social welfare is highest under port investment. Second, the impact of government transparency subsidies and blockchain technology innovation $\mathrm {R}\&\mathrm {D} $ subsidies on port and shipping system member benefits is discussed. The results show that a reasonable range of government subsidies is conducive to increasing port and shipping system member benefits, port and shipping company economic performance improves better under the blockchain technology innovation $\mathrm {R}\&\mathrm {D} $ subsidy and transparency subsidy models respectively. The findings of this paper provide useful management insights for the promotion and application of blockchain electronic cargo delivery platforms in port and shipping.

  • Xinyu WANG, Jiafu TANG, An LIU, Bin HOU
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 2995-3009. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2023-2981
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    The environment of international politics and economics is becoming increasingly complex and ever-changing, posing great challenges to the resilience and security of industry chains and supply chains. As an important part in supply chain management, procuring decisions are now influenced by various uncertain factors (such as supply disruption, transportation disruption, price volatility), thus directly affecting the cost of enterprises and the resilience of supply chains. This paper provides a review of the resilient supplier selection and order allocation problem, providing a basic description and a general framework for the problem. Especially, this paper focuses on different aspects (such as the four different types of risk and the corresponding modeling, the risk response strategies, the three mainstream mathematical modeling methods, commonly considered factors, and the solving algorithms etc) to review the problem. Finally, this paper states insights into future research trends.

  • Yunfeng ZHANG, Lijun SUN, Weihua LIU, Bengang GONG
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 3010-3024. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2023-2597
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    Under the “dual carbon” goal, enterprises often need to make low-carbon investment in order to achieve “energy saving and carbon reduction”, which will bring financial pressure and cause uncertainty of output. To study the financing and emission reduction decisions of the manufacturer with uncertain output under low-carbon policies, this paper constructs a two-echelon supply chain consisting of a single manufacturer and a single supplier. The Stackelberg game model was used to investigate the supply chain equilibrium state when the manufacturer adopts debt financing, equity financing and investment-loan linkage financing respectively. The carbon emission reductions, market demand, selling price and supply chain member’s profits of the three financing modes were compared, and the influence of output uncertainty on the above supply chain parameters was analyzed. The research shows that equity financing has comparative advantages in the three financing modes, which are mainly reflected in the best parameters such as carbon emission reductions, market demand for low-carbon products and the supplier’s profit, but it cannot ensure the highest profit level of the manufacturer. To guide the manufacturer to choose the financing mode rationally, this study takes the equity financing with comparative advantage as an example, verifies the superiority of cooperative decision-making among the members of the supply chain, uses the improved Nash bargaining game model to coordinate the supply chain, and solves the optimal profit distribution ratio coefficient of perfect coordination of the supply chain.

  • Benrong ZHENG, Liang JIN, Xianpei HONG
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 3025-3039. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2024-0179
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    Conventional wisdom often suggests that the presence of production diseconomies discourage farmers from adopting green technologies. However, this finding may change in an agricultural supply chain where farmers possess private cost information regarding adopting green technologies. This study employs the mechanism design approach to develop a principal-agent model between a farmer and a retailer to investigate the retailer’s screening contract design and the farmer’s green technology adoption strategies. We uncover that when confronted with increased production diseconomies, the farmer can benefit from adopting green technologies by increasing production quantity. The farmer’s cost informational advantage enables it to secure additional information rents, but it may reduce profits for the retailer and the supply chain. Notably, under certain negotiating power conditions, the farmer and the retailer can engage in an information-sharing negotiation for a “win-win” outcome. The case study is conducted to substantiate these theoretical insights. These findings provide a significant theoretical basis for making decisions on the adoption of green technologies by farmers and the contract design by retailers in agricultural supply chains.

  • Haijie ZHOU, Kebing CHEN, Jian SONG
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 3040-3055. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2024-0308
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    Motivated by emerging practices in the cut flower industry, this paper develops a two-period inventory system with remanufacturing for perishable products. The distinctive feature of this system is to take the perceived quality of old products into account and to explore the impact of the perceived quality on firms’ production and remanufacturing decisions. Focusing on product quality deterioration and demand information updating, this paper divides the selling season into two periods. Period 1 is characterized by demand uncertainty, while period 2 involves competition between old and new products. To derive optimal ordering and pricing decisions under various remanufacturing strategies for different quality levels, this paper employs an inverse dynamic programming approach. The results show that remanufacturing cost is the key factor influencing the choice of remanufacturing strategy, while surplus inventory and perceived quality are the core elements influencing the production and remanufacturing decisions. If the cost of remanufacturing is low, the firm should implement the full remanufacturing strategy; otherwise, it should implement the partial remanufacturing strategy. In the partial remanufacturing strategy, the firm doesn’t remanufacture when the level of surplus inventory is high or the perceived quality is low. Finally, numerical experiments demonstrate the dual value of remanufacturing, which aid in reducing reserves of safety stock, significantly boosting profits, and curbing production. This not only enhances economic outcomes but also contributes to mitigating the negative environmental impacts in the cut flower industry.

  • Mengqi LI, Dengfeng LI, Lixiao WEI, Jiangxia NAN
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 3056-3072. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2024-0424
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    Driven by digital technology, more and more platform enterprises promote products through live-streaming sales, group chat forwarding, video promotion and other ways. The social e-commerce based on the social interaction is on the rise. In order to study the impact of social behaviors on the platform supply chain, our paper designs a two-level manufacturing platform supply chain composed of a manufacturing platform, a manufacturer of the check-in platform and a traditional retailer. Considering the diversity of sales channels, the manufacturing platform allows buy-online-and-pickup-in-store (BOPS). The price competition and BOPS cooperation coexist in the manufacturing platform supply chain. We construct a noncooperative-cooperative biform game model and solve it to get the optimal strategies and profits of manufacturing platform supply chain members. We analyze the effects of inconvenience cost, consumer preference for the manufacturer of the check-in platform and social behaviors on equilibrium results. Some findings are as follows: In the social e-commerce era, the manufacturing platform and traditional retailer can achieve BOPS cooperation by profit-sharing and create the maximum benefit for the grand coalition, which realizes the win-win situation between the manufacturing platform and traditional retailer. Based on the co-existence of pricing competition and BOPS cooperation, improving the influence of social behaviors is not always beneficial to the manufacturing platform and the entered manufacturer, but can effectively increase the consumer surplus.

  • Jiaojie HAN, Wangye YANG, Guangdong WU
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 3073-3091. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2024-0742
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    The multi-partner project complex team cooperation model is one of the important ways for countries and enterprises to improve their competitiveness and innovation abilities, but with high management difficulties and complexities. Due to the importance of incentive mechanisms in promoting cooperation and the critical impacts of reciprocity preference on human behavior, this paper considers the dynamic influence of internal and external factors such as task relevance and effort conflict on the effort level of each participant and constructs a multitask stochastic differential game model based on the uncertainty of reciprocity preference and agent effort level. This paper discusses the selection of a proper incentive mechanism for multi-partner project teams and the influence of reciprocity preference. The results show that: 1) The reciprocity preference of the agent will affect the optimal effort selection and the applicable conditions of the incentive mechanism; 2) increasing the degree of the agent’s reciprocity preference is not always beneficial to the project output; 3) increasing the profit sharing coefficient does not always have a positive incentive effect, which is closely related to project attributes, agents’ reciprocity preferences, incentive mechanism types and other factors. This paper can provide theoretical support and strategic suggestions for the design and management of incentive mechanisms for multi-partner project teams.

  • Wenbo QI, Xiaobing PEI, Heng ZHAO, Zheng GUAN
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 3092-3109. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2024-0575
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    In aero engines, the rational layout of external pipelines directly impacts the performance of the pipeline system. The current research on multi-objective pipeline layout optimization for aero engines(MOPLP-AE) is faced with challenges due to the presence of multiple conflicting objectives, which leads to suboptimal layout outcomes. This study formulates a mathematical model for MOPLP-AE, aiming at the optimization goals of minimizing pipeline length, the number of bends, and energy consumption. A tripartite game-based improved genetic algorithm (TGIGA) is proposed, marking the first application of game theory to the conflict-ridden MOPLP-AE. It overcomes issues of objectivity and the complex evaluation of multi-objective Pareto optimal solutions while enhancing solution efficiency. The TGIGA integrates Pareto classification, optimized crossover and mutation strategies, and incorporates a 2-opt local search, significantly improving the efficiency and quality of solutions. The effectiveness of Nash equilibrium solutions and the feasibility of the method are validated through simulation examples of aero engines. This research significantly advances the objectivity, accuracy, and efficiency of aero engine pipeline layouts, offering a comprehensive mathematical model and innovative approach for cost reduction, safety improvement, functionality enhancement, accelerated design cycles, and improved design quality.

  • Ao LIU, Shuowen ZANG, Rubo LI, Liang REN, Kunkun PENG, Xudong DENG
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 3110-3123. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2024-0701
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    Multi-load automated guided vehicles can simultaneously handle multiple item containers, which not only increases the operation ability and flexibility of automated guided vehicles, but also brings more challenges to the operation optimization of automated guided vehicles. The collaborative optimization problem of storage allocation and vehicle routing in multi-load robotic storage and retrieval system is investigated. A nonlinear mixed 0-1 integer programming model with regard to minimizing the sum of the total replenishment distance and the total weighted items distance, together with the linearized model, are both proposed. By combining the characteristics of the problem that contains three decision making components: storage allocation, vehicle assignment and route sequencing, seven local search operators, adaptive choice strategy of the operators, global repair strategy of vehicle routing, and adaptive large neighborhood search algorithm are designed. The simulation comparison and statistical test results of four hundred instances demonstrate that the proposed adaptive large neighborhood search algorithm performs better than exact algorithm, genetic algorithm, simulated annealing algorithm and variable neighborhood search algorithm; compared with the aforementioned algorithms, the larger the problem scale, the more superior the proposed adaptive large neighborhood search algorithm; the comparison results with two-phase optimization indicate that collaborative optimization has better performance; further analysis indicates that choosing appropriate multi-load AGVs (e.g., set the maximum capacity of multi-load AGVs as 6$\sim $7) and replenishment strategies (e.g., set the out of stock proportion as 0.25$\sim $0.30) can help the companies to balance their costs and efficiency well.

  • Hailin LI, Wenhao ZHOU, Bingyi WU, Xiaoji WAN
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 3124-3137. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2024-0166
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    Achieving uncertainty mining and calibration of system data is a crucial prerequisite for enhancing the quality of data analysis and the accuracy of management decisions. This paper proposes a cloud calibration method (CCM) for decision analysis problems based on cloud model theory. The method employs cloud numerical characteristics extraction, cloud generator construction, and membership transformation to achieve normalized calibration from original indicators to membership degrees. By comparing the CCM with existing methods such as data normalization, standardization, and functional transformation calibration using case study data, it was found that CCM outperforms others in comprehensive model performance evaluation. Additionally, machine learning models such as random forests, logistic regression, and neural networks were constructed using 11 datasets of varying sizes and dimensionalities to further validate the superiority and robustness of the new method. The results provide theoretical guidance and methodological support for effectively enhancing the quality of data analysis and decision modeling.

  • Zhigang HU, Jingjun LOU, Chao QIAN, Yuedong SHI
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2025, 45(9): 3138-3150. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2024-1243
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    The ability to predict equipment support requirement is an important component of equipment support capability, and task-oriented support requirement prediction directly determines the success or failure of task. Based on the grouping and layering characteristics of support requirement prediction in task, a multi-layer network system evolution idea is applied to establish an equipment support demand prediction model based on grouping and layering. By analyzing the “task-system” structural relationship of equipment, considering the characteristics of multi-stage task, multi-level requirement, and multi-level task success rates, a hierarchical model of equipment support requirement and a task success rate model are established, and support requirement prediction algorithms for single equipment and formation are designed. Case analysis shows that when the task success rate is high, it is necessary to increase the requirement for key resource groups. When the task success rate is low, the system elements involved in the task can be adjusted as needed.