Decomposition of carbon emission factors and carbon reduction potential of urban residents in China

YUE Ting, ZHOU Jing, LONG Ruyin, ZHANG Yingkai, WANG Qianru, CHEN Hong

Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (12) : 3777-3792.

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Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (12) : 3777-3792. DOI: 10.12011/SETP2024-0015

Decomposition of carbon emission factors and carbon reduction potential of urban residents in China

  • YUE Ting1, ZHOU Jing1, LONG Ruyin2, ZHANG Yingkai1, WANG Qianru1, CHEN Hong2
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Abstract

Promoting carbon emission reduction of urban residents is of great significance for mitigating climate problems. Based on the panel data of 288 cities above prefecture level in China from 2009 to 2019, this paper calculated the living carbon emissions of urban residents, and combined population and economic characteristics to cluster cities into four types for analysis, and analyzed the influencing factors of living carbon emissions of urban residents. And BP neural network and scenario analysis were used to predict the carbon reduction potential of various urban residents. The results show that: 1) The total carbon emission of urban residents in China is increasing year by year, and the proportion of carbon emission from electricity is the highest, and the growth rate of carbon emission from heating is the highest. 2) Urbanization level, per capita disposable income, energy structure and total population size all have positive effects on the carbon emissions of urban residents, while energy intensity and consumption tendency of urban residents have negative effects, and the influencing factors of carbon emissions of various cities have certain differences. 3) All kinds of cities have great carbon reduction potential in residents' life, and there are great differences. The carbon reduction potential of the second type of cities is significantly higher than that of other cities. The first type of cities has the lowest carbon reduction potential overall. The change degree of carbon reduction potential of the third and fourth types of cities is similar, showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. All localities may formulate and implement carbon reduction measures for residents according to local conditions.

Key words

urban residential carbon emissions / cluster analysis / influencing factors / carbon reduction potential

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YUE Ting , ZHOU Jing , LONG Ruyin , ZHANG Yingkai , WANG Qianru , CHEN Hong. Decomposition of carbon emission factors and carbon reduction potential of urban residents in China. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2024, 44(12): 3777-3792 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2024-0015

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Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China (72074211);Major Project of National Social Science Foundation of China (23&ZD097, 21&ZD166);Major Talent Special Project of National Social Science Foundation of China(22VRC200)
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