中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院期刊网

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  • LI Yongwu, WANG Baoling, WANG Yashi, WANG Shouyang
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(11): 3069-3089. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-0400
    In the context of the "double carbon" target, promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of economic and social development is a major systemic project. Developing renewable energy and improving energy efficiency will help to build a more efficient green energy system. Analyzing the effect of energy transformation has important reference value for formulating a reasonable carbon emission policy and achieving medium and long-term emission reduction targets. This study takes this as a starting point. Firstly, static panel and dynamic panel system generalized method of moments (GMM) are used to estimate the impact of energy transformation, renewable energy efficiency and non-renewable energy efficiency on major macroeconomic variables. Secondly, the intermediate production sector is subdivided into renewable energy production sector and non-renewable energy production sector. The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is constructed to analyze the short-term impact of energy transformation impact, renewable energy efficiency impact and non-renewable energy efficiency impact on major macroeconomic variables. The analysis shows that: 1) energy transformation promotes the transfer of resources between sectors, the output of renewable energy production sector will increase, while the output of non-renewable energy production sector and carbon emissions will decrease; 2) The improvement of two kinds of energy efficiency will produce economic expansion effect, but it will also produce energy rebound effect and increase carbon emissions; 3) At the end of the simulation period, the implementation of the carbon emission intensity policy will promote the growth effect of three shocks on output, but will also hinder the emission reduction effect and aggravate the rebound effect in the process of energy transformation. The implementation of the carbon tax policy will inhibit the rebound effect of two types of energy efficiency shocks on carbon emissions. In the process of energy transformation, we should rely on a reasonable carbon emission policy and formulate medium and long-term emission reduction targets. This study has important reference value for China to analyze the effect of energy transformation.
  • GAN Chunhui, MAN Ben
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(11): 3090-3109. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2989
    Propose a complete framework for decomposing value added, the multiplier decomposition and structural decomposition methods are extended to the multi-country and multi-sector input-output model to quantitatively analyze the dual circulation evolution trend of China and the endogenous power of the domestic circulation from 2000 to 2020. Research Findings: The overall dependence of China's economic development on the domestic circulation is in a "U" shape, and the inflection point appeared in 2006. On the left side of the inflection point, the main reason for the decline of the domestic circulation is China's decreasing value-added rate; on the right side of the inflection point, the improvement of the final demand rate, the toal demand coefficient and the value-added rate become the main driving force for the domestic circulation to rise in turn. Compared with investment, consumption has always been the main factor affecting the domestic circulation change in final domestic demand. The countries relying on the external circulation have shifted from developed countries to developing countries and developed countries. The dependence of the development of manufacturing industry on the domestic circulation has also increased since 2008. During this period, the increase of the toal demand coefficient of the service industry for the manufacturing industry, the upgrading of the industrial structure, and the improvement of the manufacturing value-added rate have successively occupied the main position in the cyclical rise of the manufacturing industry. The change in the domestic circulation of digital industry is dominated by its own final demand rate or the total demand coefficient of non-digital industry, and the dominant industries in the domestic circulation of non-digital industry are mainly themselves.
  • PAN Rongrong, LUO Jianqiang, YANG Zichao
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(11): 3110-3128. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1777
    Under the real demand that Chinese manufacturing industry is advancing to the high end, servitization empowered by digital technology has become an important strategy for manufacturing enterprises to achieve high-quality development, which can stimulate the innovation vitality and create new development opportunities, enabling them to provide customers with intelligent solutions that integrate products, software and services. This study firstly collects foreign and domestic literature that is closely related to digital technology and servitization, selects to form a sample database, and constructs a theoretical analysis framework. Secondly, on the basis of introducing the servitization and digital technology, the evolution trend of the digital servitization is revealed, and the realization approach of the empowerment is analyzed. Thirdly, based on the division of the value chain of manufacturing enterprises, this study expounds the application scenario of servitization empowered by digital technology from the perspective of front-end product innovation, middle-end hybrid product generation and back-end service innovation. Finally, the "double-edged sword" effect of the empowerment with potential value and risks is analyzed, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, and the future research directions of this topic are provided.
  • LI Genqiang, ZONG Zhigang, PAN Wenqing
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(10): 2749-2768. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1690
    The change of trade cost in services affects the cross-border flow of service elements, and under the division of global value chains, it can influence the production cost and final product price of each country through the input-output linkages and then affect the welfare of consumers. Based on WIOD database, this paper firstly calculates the level of China's trade cost in services from 2000 to 2014. On this basis, using global input-output price model and consumer welfare model, this paper examines the impact of the change of China's trade cost in services on consumer welfare in different countries from the perspective of equivalent variance and compensating variance. The results show that China's trade cost in services showed a downward trend from 2000 to 2014, with the most obvious decline in air transportation and financial services. The price effect of the change of China's trade cost in services on manufacturing industry is higher than that of service and agriculture, and the effect on knowledge-intensive manufacturing industry is the highest, followed by capital-intensive and labor-intensive manufacturing industries. The analysis of consumer welfare shows that the change of China's trade cost in services has improved consumer welfare of all countries, and it has brought more obvious welfare improvement to the United States, Japan, South Korea and Germany besides itself and the rest of the world. In terms of detailed service sector, distribution, postal transportation and finance and commerce services have the largest welfare effect among all services industry. Furthermore, international comparison shows that the welfare improvement to the rest of the world brought by the change of China's trade cost in services was about 3.3 times as much as that by the Unites States from 2000 to 2014, and China shows greater positive externality and provides more universal benefit to the world than the United States, Japan and the European Union. This paper can provide policy reference for further promoting the service trade openness and strengthening mutual cooperation among countries with the consensus of the community with a shared future for mankind.
  • DONG Jiemiao, HU Yi, YU Zhuangxiong
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(10): 2769-2786. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2739
    Based on the customs trade database from 2000--2015, this paper identifies Chinese firms' tendency to export competitive strategies and examines the impact of internal and external product networks on firms' changing competitive strategies and their mechanisms. It is found that firms generally adopt cost-competitive strategies to participate in exports, but firms can reduce their cost-competitive tendencies by converging on internal and external networks. And when both convergence levels reach a high level, firms can shift from cost-based competence to quality-based competence. The mechanism analysis shows that higher product quality differentiation and greater market demand will weaken firms' cost competitive tendency; proximity to external product networks weakens cost competitive tendency mainly through the channel of strengthening product quality differentiation, and proximity to internal product networks improves quality competitive tendency mainly through the channel of strengthening export market demand. The heterogeneity analysis shows that this network effect is more effective for new entrants and domestic firms but is weakened by policy support, as the impact of information flow will be limited by the fluency of knowledge extraction, transfer and diffusion. The findings of the study not only reveal the feasibility of enterprises using information flow of product networks to enhance export competitiveness, but also suggest more diversified thinking on the optimization of industrial policy implementation.
  • XIE Weimin, GUO Jialu, ZHANG Hengxin
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(10): 2787-2806. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2023-0077
    Enhancing total factor productivity is a key initiative to promote high-quality economic development and build a strong socialist modern state comprehensively. We examine the impact of convertible bonds on firm's total factor productivity and the corresponding mechanism based on a multi-period difference-in-differences model. We find that convertible bonds can significantly increase firm's total factor productivity. The mechanism tests show that convertible bonds can improve total factor productivity by alleviating financing constraints and optimizing resource allocation. The heterogeneity tests show that debt-like convertible bonds have a more significant impact on total factor productivity. Moreover, the contribution of convertible bonds to total factor productivity is more significant in firms with higher external monitoring and regions with lower financial development. Our paper adds empirical evidence on the economic consequences of convertible bonds from the Chinese capital market and complements the research framework in the field of financial development and economic growth, which has important implications for promoting innovation in financial instruments and high-quality economic development in China.
  • ZHANG Ming, WANG Qiaoyu, ZHANG Lu, SONG Yan, ZHU Bangzhu
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(9): 2467-2483. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2825
    High-quality development focuses on total factor productivity. As a pioneer and demonstration zone of China's economic development, it is of great practical significance for national high-tech zones to effectively play a driving role in the region. Therefore, based on the data of Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2003--2018, the green total factor productivity was calculated as a measure of high-quality development. To alleviate the bias of the traditional DID model due to the neglect of policy spatial spillover, we constructed a spatial DID model to analyze the effect of the national high-tech zones on the green total factor productivity of local and neighboring cities. The results showed that the national high-tech zones increased the green total factor productivity. This policy had a clear promotion effect on cities without a national high-tech zone, and the effect was related to the original development level of the city and the spatial distance between cities; however, the cities with national high-tech zones has not shown a "strong team" or a "race to the top" spatial connection. In addition, the impact of national high-tech zones on regional green total factor productivity worked mainly through improving the regional innovation and entrepreneurship environment. Based on this, we suggest that the high-tech development highlands should to be created with national high-tech zones as the nodes, and the diversified regional cooperation system of national high-tech zones should to be built by breaking down the administrative boundaries.
  • MA Xiaoyu, HUANG Mingzhu, YANG Mengxi
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(9): 2484-2501. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2922
    In recent years, with the significant increase of various security risk events, the supply chain of a large number of enterprises has been impacted or even interrupted. Supply chain resilience has become the common focus of academy, industry and government. From the perspective of single and multiple configurations, this paper constructs research models for the influencing factors of supply chain resilience. Based on 622 valid samples of enterprises, this study applies structural equation model (SEM) and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) for empirical analysis. The research shows that: 1) Flexibility, agility, reconfiguration, visibility and supply chain cooperation can have positive impacts on supply chain resilience. 2) High flexibility, high agility, high reconfiguration, high visibility and strong cooperative relationship cannot be the necessary conditions for high supply chain resilience alone. 3) There are three driving configurations for high supply chain resilience, namely, high agility configuration consisting of agility * reconfiguration * supply chain cooperation, high visibility configuration consisting of ~flexibility * reconfiguration * visibility * supply chain cooperation, and agile visual dual configuration consisting of ~flexibility * agility * visibility * supply chain cooperation and flexibility * agility * visibility * reconfiguration. The high supply chain resilience is the synergy of multiple factors, and the effective combination of various factors promotes the supply chain resilience in the way of "different paths lead to the same goal". This research systematically discusses the influencing factors of supply chain resilience, which can provide theoretical guidance and managerial insight for enterprises to improve supply chain resilience.
  • LAI Hongzhen, ZHOU Yanju, CHEN Xiaohong, HU Chunhua
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(9): 2502-2516. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2023-0071
    In light of recent events such as "sweatshops", "environmental pollution", and "child slave labor", it has become imperative for enterprises to shift their focus from solely pursuing short-term economic gains to fulfilling social responsibilities in order to achieve sustainable and high-quality development. Focusing on how to coordinate the participation of brand firms and suppliers in fulfilling the social responsibilities of the upstream supply chain and taking account of the prosociality and reference effects of consumers, we use differential game method to build the decision-making model of decentralized decision-making, centralized decision-making, and unilateral cost-sharing contract between brand firms and suppliers. Furthermore, we design the bilateral cost- and revenue-sharing contract to achieve perfect coordination of the supply chain. The results suggest that: 1) An increase in the proportion of prosocial consumers will prompt brand firms and suppliers to improve their efforts of fulfilling social responsibility. However, excessive reliance on brand reputation to determine the level of social responsibility performance of the upstream supply chain may reduce the willingness of supply chain members to fulfill their social responsibilities. 2) The unilateral cost-sharing contract encourages suppliers to improve the efforts of fulfilling social responsibility, but do not affect the brand firm's efforts of fulfilling social responsibility. The contract stimulates the improvement of brand goodwill and consumer reference prices, thus promote the increase of profits for brand firms and suppliers. Moreover, when the reference effect for the level of social responsibility fulfillment of the upstream supply chain has a significant impact on the formation of consumers' reference price, the reference price under this contract will instead be higher than the centralized decision-making model. However, the contract is difficult to promote brand firms and suppliers to jointly improve social responsibility performance, and cannot maximize the total profit of the supply chain. 3) When the revenue sharing ratio of brand firms is at a moderate level, it can promote both brand firms and suppliers to participate in a bilateral cost- and revenue-sharing contract, and coordinate the supply chain perfectly.
  • LIAO Hua, WANG Fangzhi, TENG Meixuan
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(8): 2179-2194. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-0977
    Climate damage and adaptation are key modules in the integrated assessment modelling on climate-economy system, both of which will directly affect the stringency of climate policy. This paper explores the recent academic advancement in these two aspects. As for climate damage, an emerging strand of literature not only focuses on the overall impact of rising temperature on economic production, but also sheds more spotlights on how rising temperature can cause economic losses through shocks to capital stock, labor supply, technical change and natural capital. Although recent studies illuminate directions for improving damage function under varying degrees of temperature rise, enormous disputes still hang over the concrete settings of the damage function. Existing climate-adaptation models commonly resort to either adaptive investment or market mechanisms. However, additional examinations should be warranted of related constraints on adaptation to avoid overestimating the effects of climate adaptation, as well as the regional heterogeneity in adaptation strategies. Future research should take into account social damages caused by climate change, other climate risk characteristics in addition to rising temperature, and how they channel corresponding effects. Furthermore, more empirical studies are needed to help refine the constructions and calibrations of the damage function, and probability tools are called for to investigate the uncertainties of climate damage and adaptation, in a shared effort to provide references for guiding climate policy practices.
  • WANG Ligang, ZHANG Xi, LI Rui
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(8): 2195-2207. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-3135
    At the city level, this paper uses a quasi-natural experiment to study whether green performance appraisal motivates local governments to improve air quality, and then measures the efficiency of urban air pollution control based on super-SBM model, and further identifies the influencing factors of the efficiency of air pollution control. The empirical results show that the performance assessment of air pollution control significantly promote local governments to improve air quality, and the average annual PM$_{2.5}$ concentration of experimental cities decreased by 3.38% more than that of control cities. Secondly, in recent years, the efficiency of air pollution control in China has gradually declined, especially in the central and western regions. While foreign investment has a negative impact on air pollution control efficiency, the development level of science and technology service industry has a positive impact on air pollution control efficiency, and the impact of science and technology investment level is not significant. Therefore, this paper proposes that China should maintain the performance appraisal system of air pollution control as a long-term system, and raise the admittance threshold of “two high” type industries in air pollutant discharge, so as to promote local governments to control air pollution. In addition, the city needs to increase investment in green science and technology and vigorously develop science and technology services to promote the green transformation of the city.
  • LI Guohao, XIAO Jin
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(8): 2208-2221. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2751
    Understanding the driving factors of China's power sector decarbonization and the role of carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) in the process of power sector decarbonization can help to formulate and improve policies related to power sector decarbonization to fulfill China's commitment to the international community. Based on a self-developed power sector $\rm CO_2$ emissions dataset, this study conducts a decomposition analysis of the driving factors of China's power sector $\rm CO_2$ emissions changes from the perspective of ETS implementation and analyzes the mechanism of these driving factors in the process of ETS promoting decabonization in power sector. The results show that the accelerated decarbonization process of China's power sector after the implementation of the ETS is mainly due to the slowdown in economic growth, the continuous optimization of the power generation structure, and the gradual increase in the efficiency of power generation and power consumption. The ETS has accelerated the process of decarbonization of China's power sector, and it mainly works by promoting the efficiency of power generation and electricity consumption. The research conclusions can clarify the priority and focus of policies related to decarbonization of China's power sector in the context of the ETS construction.
  • 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(7): 1-1.
  • XIONG Xiong, DI Jiahui, GAO Ya
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(7): 1873-1890. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1955
    With the release of China's "dual carbon goals", individual investors' green concerns gradually cause strengthened pressure on listed companies. Using the data of investor interaction platforms of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, this paper constructs green concern indicators based on a sample of 2048 listed companies and empirically reveals that individual investors' green concerns can promote green innovation in terms of quantity and quality. This influence is more pronounced in non-heavily polluting industries and those with no pollution charges and fewer environmental protection subsidies, individual investors' green concerns play a supplement role in the environmental regulation policies. Improving the construction of the green financial system and guiding individual investors' green investment concept can promote listed companies' green innovation behaviors.
  • JIANG Danling, PENG Xun, ZHU Hongquan
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(7): 1891-1909. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1974
    We provide the first systematic analysis of the stock return lead-lag effect among firms connected through shared analyst coverage in China's A-share markets. We measure the shared analysts-weighted average returns of connected firms (CF) and show that CF is a significant positive predictor of future returns of the focal firms in the following one to 12 months. The CF-return-based long-short portfolio earns an abnormal return of 10% to 12% per year. The effect is robust to controls for the industry and geographic momentum effects. Further evidence shows that the CF momentum spillover effect is stronger when the focal firm shares more analysts with connected firms, is covered by more non-star analysts or analysts with lower levels of education, or is held by more stress-resistant institutional investors. Our findings contribute to the cross-asset momentum literature by documenting a new, strong, and long-lasting momentum spillover effect in the Chinese stock markets.
  • Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(6): 1-1.
    编者按 习近平总书记指出: "中华优秀传统文化是中华民族的精神命脉, 是涵养社会主义核心价值观的重要源泉, 也是我们在世界文化激荡中站稳脚跟的坚实根基", "系统观念是具有基础性的思想和工作方法". 中华优秀传统文化蕴含着深邃的系统观念, 引领着中华民族不断地成长和前行. 在应对当今"百年未遇之大变局"种种挑战的形势之下, 从传统文化中萃取系统观念, 有着特别的意义. 二十多年前, 中国系统工程事业的开创者之一许国志院士在为英中日三国系统方法论跨文化交流讨论会论文集的英文序言中, 对中国四书五经中"大学"所蕴含的系统观念有精辟的论述. 中国系统工程学会前理事长顾基发研究员和中国科学院大学颜基义教授将该序言翻译成中文, 并加上自己精彩的评述. 现特此把顾基发研究员和颜基义教授的翻译在本期《系统工程理论与实践》之首刊出, 让中华传统优秀文化的光辉来启迪我们今天的系统思维.
  • HUANG Zhehao, YANG Cunyi, LI Zhenghui
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(6): 1545-1567. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1728
    With the significant expansion of the breadth and depth of financial services for the real economy, the real sector's "be diverted out of the real economy" trend has become a structural contradiction, and the motivation and appropriateness behind the enterprise's financialization have become an urgent issue to be resolved. This paper starts from the enterprise's response to risk and uncertainty, as well as the financialization drive mechanism to pursue shareholder value, and constructs the optimization problem of the investment portfolio intending to minimize enterprise risk and maximize shareholder value, and then obtains the optimal allocation of financial assets under different objectives reflecting the relationship between enterprise risk, shareholder value and the non-linear relationship between the levels of enterprise financialization. On this basis, based on the fact that the enterprise's financialization driving mechanism reflects the characteristics of the financialization motivation, we start from the enterprise's asset allocation structure. Combined with the optimal allocation of financial assets under specific objectives, we propose the criteria for determining the enterprise's financialization motivation and the appropriate scope of the enterprise's financialization. Then, we selected the representative listed non-financial enterprises in China as a sample for empirical analysis:As for the identification of the motivation of financialization, this paper found that although the non-financial enterprise sector is still dominated by the "reservoir" motivation, the whole, the "investment substitution" motivation is more significant and cannot be ignored. There is heterogeneity among different industries and enterprises with different equity natures, among which the motivation of "investment substitution" in the wholesale and retail industry and real estate industry is significant, and the motivation of "investment substitution" in non-state-owned enterprises is significantly stronger than that in state-owned enterprises. Concerning the appropriateness of enterprise financialization, we find that the overall financialization appropriateness of the non-financial enterprise sector is low. Especially in the information technology industry and the power, gas, and water production and supply industry, the appropriateness of financialization is significantly lower than the average level, and the level of industry financialization is insufficient. In contrast, the wholesale, retail, and real estate industries have excessive financialization. The moderation of non-state-owned enterprises' financialization is significantly higher than that of state-owned enterprises, and there is also the phenomenon of excessive financialization. The conclusion of this paper provides guiding suggestions for financial investment decision-making and regulatory identification of enterprises.
  • XIANG Yuangao, LUO Jinhui
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(6): 1568-1596. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2404
    This study investigates the effect of common ownership on the convergence of corporate governance characteristics in Chinese A-share listed firms using a pair model. Our analysis indicates that firms with common ownership exhibit greater convergence in their governance characteristics. We then identify that the convergence effect is stronger when firms have better internal information environments or weaker external ones, suggesting that common shareholders are better able to obtain and share internal governance information. Additionally, we find that higher common ownership levels and increased industry competition lead to more significant convergence, highlighting the importance of collaborative motivations of common owners. Furthermore, our mediating analysis shows that sharing board members, members of the board of supervisors, and executives mediates the relationship between common ownership and governance characteristic convergence. Finally, we conduct a series of cross-sectional analyses based on common owner and firm characteristics. Our research contributes to the literature by shedding light on the inter-firm governance effect of common ownership.
  • WANG Lianfen, LIANG Junyi, CHEN Xiangjie, ZHOU Saiqun
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(5): 1249-1266. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1046
    With the core of embodied carbon intensity, this paper constructs a comprehensive analysis framework of cross-border economic and carbon emission impacts, assessing the impacts of the Belt and Road on China's economy and environment. The results show that the demand of the Belt and Road places a more critical effect on China's value-added, carbon emission, and aggregate carbon intensity. Compared with other countries, the proportion of industries with high embodied carbon intensity in the demand of the Belt and Road is relatively higher, resulting in China's higher embodied carbon intensity, indicating that China has to benefit from specialization through more carbon emission. To achieve the vision of Green Belt and Road, South Asia is a key region. Mining and quarrying, petroleum, chemical and non-metallic mineral products, metal products are key sectors. The difference in supply chain production structure effect is the main reason for China's higher embodied carbon intensity, suggesting that the supply chain transformation plays a significant role in Green Belt and Road. This paper first systematically analyzes the economic and carbon emissions impacts of the Belt and Road on China through international trade, clarifying the challenge of building Green Belt and Road that is ignored in the previous literature and proposes three policy implications on key regional governance, key industrial governance, and transformation of the green supply chain. The comprehensive analysis framework of cross-border economic and carbon emissions effects proposed provides a methodological basis for other environmental indicators.
  • WU Yewei, ZHOU Linyu, LIU Ning
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(5): 1267-1284. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1505
    Green merger and acquisition (M&A) is an important mechanism to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goal, but its motivation and environmental effects remain unclear. This paper uses the quasi-natural experiment of the segmented implementation of the ambient air quality standard as the exogenous impact to test the impact of environmental regulation on green M&A decisions of listed?companies. It is found that the implementation of ambient air quality standards can significantly improve the probability of green M&A of heavily polluting firms, and cause a significant improvement on firms' green innovation achievements and environmental performance. Further research shows that the green M&As are not concentrated in target areas with relatively lax environmental regulation, which eliminates the alternative explanation of pollution transfer through green M&A. Meanwhile, the green M&As promoted by ambient air quality standard are characterized by low proportion of related M&A, high proportion of major M&A and low proportion of performance commitments, which goes some way towards indicating that green M&As are not a "greenwashing". Finally, the green M&As promoted by ambient air quality standard mainly occur in non-state-owned firms and firms with high external attention. This paper makes an in-depth analysis of green M&A behaviors, which has enlightening significance for understanding the specific coping strategies of firms under the pressure of environmental governance policy, and also provides a useful reference for deepening the reform of environmental governance system.
  • XIAO Jinli, LI Jialing, GAO Hao, ZHANG Pengdong
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(5): 1285-1299. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-3127
    This paper examines whether management obtains information from peer stock prices to support R&D decisions. We first document a negative effect of peer stock valuation on companies' R&D investment. Furthermore, we show that the less (more) information content of a company's own (peers') stock price, the more strong the impact of peer stock prices on corporate R&D. What's more, the effect would be weakened for companies with higher market position and for industries with less severe competition. We verify the effect of peer stock price in the scenarios of companies going public and switching industries, and find that: 1) The impact of peer stock prices on R&D activities is weakened due to reduced demand for peer stock price information after companies went public; 2) The effect of previous (new) peer stock prices on R&D investment is weakened (strengthened) after the focal companies switch industries. We also exclude alternative explanation from the catering theory and adopts a variety of ways to alleviate the possible problem of omitted variables. Overall, we provide a new explanation for the impact of stock price fluctuations on corporate R&D investment from the perspective of information feedback channel.
  • ZHENG Qiaoqiao, WAN Liang, WANG Shanyong, LI Jun, WU Jie, SONG Malin
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(4): 941-957. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1210
    How to promote green transformation in social life and consumption is a key issue that governments should pay attention to and solve. Academics have paid extensive attention to the green transition of production mode. However, insufficient attention has been paid to the green transition of lifestyle and relevant empirical studies on the theme of green lifestyle are rare. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2019, this paper examines the impact of environmental regulations on residents' green lifestyles by constructing an econometric model and systematically explores the possible mechanism of environmental regulation on the green lifestyle. It is found that environmental regulation directly affects green lifestyles and can also positively affect residents' green lifestyles by improving the level of green technology innovation at the production level. In addition, green environmental awareness positively modifies the impact of environmental regulation intensity on green lifestyles. Heterogeneity analysis and robustness analysis further enrich the reliability of the conclusions and results of this study. This paper attempts to open the "black box" in which environmental regulations guide residents to form green lifestyles and provide a reference for government policy-making and guiding residents to form green lifestyles.
  • SHAO Shuai, XU Lili, YANG Lili
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(4): 958-983. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1418
    Using the social network analysis method, for the first time, this paper builds an exponential random graph model to identify and interpret the formation mechanism of China's carbon emission spatial association networks based on the investigation of the structural characteristics of the networks from 1998 to 2016. The results show that China's carbon emission spatial association networks can be divided into four major plates with different responsibilities and present an evident regional club distribution characteristic. Each plate experienced a recombination process to varying degrees during our sample period. In detail, provinces belonging to the net spillover plate decreased, while provinces belonging to the main benefit and net benefit plates all increased. Meanwhile, although provinces belonging to the broker plate changed, its total number remains unchanged. Moreover, the "carbon emission refuge" effect between regions weakened. Regions tend to participate in the spatial association "activities" of carbon emissions in the forms of "reciprocity" or "clusters," and the spatial association of carbon emissions has the phenomena of "feudal economy" and gradient fault. A high degree of openness, a clean and low-carbon energy structure, and improved energy efficiency are conducive to promoting more carbon emission reception relationships between regions. As energy structure upgrades, the spatial association pattern of carbon emissions has gradient flow trends from west to east and from north to south. The complementarity of inter-regional economic development modes in openness, economic agglomeration, industrial structure, and energy efficiency leads to forming the carbon emission spatial association networks. Thus, the strengthening of regional division and cooperation and close regional trade ties causes the network to present the feature of a "carbon" fate match across a thousand miles drawn by a thread. Therefore, accelerating the implementation of cooperation emission reduction policies, such as regional integration and carbon trading market, will effectively promote the realization of regional collaborative low-carbon transformation development.
  • ZHU Wenbo, HAN Xinru, CHEN Yongfu
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(4): 984-1001. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-3168
    Vegetables and fruits play an important role in Chinese diet and the welfare changes brought by price fluctuations to consumers cannot be ignored, especially the heterogeneity among different income groups. Based on the framework of the incomplete demand system, this study uses the EASI model and the microdata from the National Bureau of Statistics to examine the cross-price effect of fruit and vegetable consumption and changes in consumer welfare of different income strata. The research results show that there is a significant cross-price effect between fruit and vegetables. Among them, there is an obvious substitution relationship between fresh vegetables, fresh fruits and fresh melons. Dried vegetable products and dried fruits show substitution for fresh vegetables. Dried vegetable products are also substitutes for fresh fruits and have strong substitutes. The increase in fruit and vegetable prices will reduce consumer welfare. If the indirect effect of the EASI incomplete demand system in welfare analysis is not considered, the loss of residents' welfare will be underestimated. The impact of rising vegetable prices on consumer welfare will decline with increasing income while the influence of rising fruit prices shows a U-shaped distribution. Therefore, it is necessary to calm the rise in the price of fruits and vegetables and protect the consumer welfare. And it is vital to formulate different policies according to different income groups.
  • ZHANG Derong
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(3): 619-647. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-0303
    This paper focuses on the factors influencing China's economic growth since the reform period based on the rent dissipation perspective. This paper consists of the following four parts. Firstly, Analysis based on different data sets shows that the China's rapid economic growth is related to the low level of development in 1978, which puts forward the difficulties of China's economic transition today. Secondly, after the identification of the four stages of development since the reform period, we analyze the reason of China's high economic growth. The core is the market-oriented institutional change, in which process the local government plays an important role. Our regression analysis based on provincial level data agrees with our theory hypothesis. But the trend is changing in recent years, which destroys the incentive compatibility of economic growth and fiscal interest of the local government. Thirdly, we put forward the difficulties that China will face in the process of reform. Reducing the monopoly rent both in product markets and factor markets is very important to further the market-oriented reform. Finally, the difficulty of furthering China's economic reform is concludingly emphasized and policy suggestions are put forward.
  • CHENG Kaiming, WANG Guimei
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(3): 648-666. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1329
    This paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of urbanization affecting high-quality economic development using an urban-rural dual general equilibrium model including environmental factors, and empirically tests the actual effect of urbanization affecting high-quality economic development through industrial structure upgrading based on panel data of cities above the prefecture level in China. The results show that urbanization has a positive role in high-quality economic development represented by pollutant emissions per unit of GDP, and industrial structure upgrading has a significant mediation effect. Urbanization of eastern cities mainly inhibits environmental pollution emissions through mediation effect of industrial structure upgrading; urbanization of central and western cities has both direct and indirect effects on environmental pollutant emissions. Urbanization of provincial capital cities and non-provincial capital cities has a partial mediating effect on environmental pollutant emissions. The promotion effect of urbanization of provincial capital cities on high-quality economic development is significantly higher than that of non-provincial capital cities. In the future, it is necessary to continue to promote new urbanization, rationally optimize industrial structure, enhance the synergy between urbanization and industrial structure, and promote high-quality economic development.
  • LIU Erzhuo, FENG Haoming, LIU Fangge, HE Qing
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(3): 667-683. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-1636
    This paper investigates the impact of economic sanctions on the value added and global value chain position of the target countries, based on cross-country input-output tables and economic sanctions data from 1990——2018. The findings of this paper show that economic sanctions reduce the value chain participation and domestic value added of the target countries, moving them up the value chain and transforming them into resource-exporting countries. Longer duration and larger scale sanctions more significantly reduce the domestic value added of the target country. The impact of sanctions on value added is transmitted according to foreign value added, indirect value added, and domestic value added. In addition, the basic empirical results of this paper remain robust after using the instrumental variables approach and considering the conditions set by the difference in difference method and industry heterogeneity.
  • ZHANG Yuejun, WANG Xia
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(2): 309-320. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-0981
    Carbon emission trading scheme is an important policy tool to achieve the carbon peak and neutrality targets, and it is of great practical significance to evaluate the impact of the policy on the economy, society and the environment. This study uses the data from 30 provinces in China from 2009 to 2017 to construct the index of sustainable economic welfare, and develops the difference-in-differences model to evaluate the impact of China's carbon emission trading scheme on sustainable economic welfare. The results show that:1) The carbon emission trading scheme has significantly promoted the growth of sustainable economic welfare in the pilot areas. Compared with non-pilot areas, the sustainable economic welfare of the pilot areas has increased by 1,220 yuan per person. 2) The impact of carbon emission trading scheme on the sustainable economic welfare of the eastern pilot area is relatively the largest, which is 2,020 yuan per person. At the same time, with the increase in clean energy consumption and R&D investment in the eastern region, the carbon emission trading scheme can significantly promote the improvement of sustainable economic welfare in the eastern pilot areas. 3) The carbon emission trading scheme has a certain lag effect on sustainable economic welfare, and the lag period is about two years.
  • LUO Jinhui, WU Yilong
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(2): 321-349. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-2525
    Do environment pollution and resultant costs of the environmental regulation help to promote corporate green innovation? This is an important issue of common concern from all sections of society. Using A-share industrial listed firms from 2014-2018, this study examines whether and how air pollution affects corporate green innovation. Our results show that air pollution significantly increases the level of corporate green innovation in near future. On average, 1% increase in air pollution in a focal city will lead to 0.75% increase in green innovation in focal firms, displaying statistic and economic significance. Further mechanism analyses reveal that local government regulation and public supervision are partial intermediary factors of the associtation between air pollution and corporate green innovation. Moreover, the positive association is found to be more pronounced in firms having higher media coverage and lower financing constraints. In addition, we find that green innovation will significantly improve corporate market value. Overall, this study can enrich the literature on the microeconomic consequences of air pollution and the determinants of corporate green innovation, and also provide theoretical support and empirical evidence for the government making policies for pollution prevention.
  • LIU Xiangdong, HONG Shaopeng
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(2): 350-370. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-0430
    Based on the asymmetric jumps in asset prices and the rough in the asset volatility, this paper proposesthe the rough Heston model with asymmetric jump (rHeston-AEDJ) and derives the characteristic functions in the risk-neutral measure. Due to the non-Markovian and non-semimartingale of the model, it cannot be approximated using the Euler method. A hybrid simulation approach is used to approximate the rough Heston model with asymmetric jump and can solve the pricing problem of exotic options under rough volatility with poisson jump. Under the risk-neutral measure, the quasi-closed function of the Euclidean option is derived based on Fourier-SINC. The results of the empirical study show that there is a jump in the price of Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) 50 exchange traded fund (ETF) and the volatility Hurst index is much less than 1/2, i.e., there is roughness in the volatility. The pricing experiment of SSE 50 ETF options based on the quasi-closed function finds that the proposed rHeston-AEDJ model has good pricing accuracy both inside and outside the sample. The findings of the study are of great practical significance and application value to the pricing and accurate risk management of domestic and foreign option products.
  • XUE Chang, HE Qing, ZHANG Ce
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(1): 1-19. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-0772
    Based on the dataset of branches of China's banking institutions, this paper studies the impact of inter-regional banking integration on economic synchronization between regions in China. We find that the rise of inter-regional banking integration significantly narrows the gaps of economic growth between regions and promotes the economic synchronization between regions while major four state-owned commercial banks play a primary role. After addressing the endogeneity concern by using the instrumental variable based on city commercial banks' restructuring and mergers over years, the benchmark conclusion remains robust. When employing earthquakes and COVID-19 outbreak as risk shocks, this paper finds that China's banking system, especially major four state-owned commercial banks, can significantly share the negative shocks of disasters on disaster-stricken areas' economy. This paper deepens the research on the role of the banking system in China's macro-economy, and explains the influence of the banking system on economic synchronization between regions from the perspective of risk sharing. This paper provides evidence for the financial support for the real economy and regional economic synchronization in China.
  • WANG Lei, ZHU Ming, ZHANG Shunming
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(1): 20-35. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-2362
    This paper takes the outbreak of the COVID-19 at the beginning of 2020 as a quasi-natural experiment to study the impact of public health emergency on corporate cash holding decisions using a difference-in-difference model. We find that firms severely affected by the epidemic have significantly increased their cash holdings compared to other firms. The increased cash holdings mainly come from the reduction of cash flow expenses from operating activities and financing activities. In the process of adjusting cash holding decisions, firms have shown strong preventive motive, holding more cash to prevent future cash flow shortages from affecting the normal production and operation, while the agency motive for cash holdings is not obvious. Heterogeneity analysis shows that management's behavior of increasing cash holdings during the epidemic period is manifested in both state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises, and is more obvious in regions with lower marketization level. Further research finds that the epidemic doesn't cause pessimism among managers, but they express concerns about the uncertainty of firms' future development. This uncertainty mood plays an important role in the process of public health emergency affecting firm cash holdings. Finally, research shows that the behavior of firms maintaining higher cash holdings can cause more positive market reaction.
  • XIE Weimin, ZHANG Hengxin
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2023, 43(1): 36-57. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-0450
    Based on the data of China's high-tech firm from 2010 to 2019, we measure the innovation strategy implemented by firm according to the relative proportion between independent innovation and technology import, and empirically test the impact of performance-vested equity incentives on firm innovation strategy. The results show that the more stringent the performance-vesting conditions are, the more firm tend to choose the technology import strategy. The study on the interaction of contractual terms of equity incentives found that the greater the intensity of equity incentives, the shorter the exercise validity and the listed firm that grant restricted stock can play a better role in promoting the technology import strategy. Further research points out that the impact of performance-vested equity incentives on firm innovation strategy is stronger in firm with high level of information asymmetry, serious agency problem and high separation of two rights. This paper expands the optimal contract theory, analyzes the internal logic of senior management choosing different innovation strategies, enriches the relevant literature on the economic consequences of performance-vested equity incentives, and also provides policy suggestions and practical enlightenment for high-tech firm to optimize equity incentives and drive independent innovation.
  • ZHANG Junrong, TIAN Kailan, ZHANG Yu, YANG Cuihong
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2022, 42(12): 3151-3164. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-0482
    Based on the newly constructed input-output model that distinguishes firm size categories (LMS model) and the structural decomposition analysis (SDA) method, this study quantitatively calculates the employment effects and determinants across three firm size categories in China's dual circulation, from the perspectives of "aggregate", "efficiency" and "increment". Empirical results show that:1) In 2007 and 2012, the employment generated by domestic demand across all firm size categories is higher than foreign demand both in total and per unit of domestic demand. 2) In respect of firm size categories, small and micro enterprises are the critical force in stimulating the employment generated by domestic demand; Meanwhile, the employment generated by per unit of final demand (both domestic demand and foreign demand) of small and micro enterprises has a more significant role in driving the employment than large and medium sized enterprises. 3) The change of the final demand scale is the key driving force for employment growth across all firm size categories. This paper demonstrates the practical significance of actively expanding domestic demand in promoting China's employment growth under the new development pattern of "dual circulation" from a quantitative perspective, and provides scientific support for formulating reasonable and effective employment policies.
  • WEI Guangxing, CHEN Yongheng
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2022, 42(12): 3139-3150. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-2927
    In perspective of tournament theory, this paper develops a principal-agent model with standard economic theory from the objective reality of congenital differences, to analyze the evolutional mechanism of unbalanced and inadequate development, and to design the policy logic of common prosperity. The main findings include the following. Firstly, the unbalanced and inadequate development will evolve in the trend of becoming serious without any policy regulation, which plays a negative role in common prosperity. Secondly, the preferential treatment of tournament should be applied to help the weak in the congenital disadvantageous position, but not fill in the congenital differences completely. Thirdly, the distribution mechanism based on the preferential treatment should be regulated to widen the allocation gap and increase the aggregate of tournament. Finally, the combined policies of preferential treatment and regulated distribution mechanism can resolve the problem of unbalanced and insufficient development simultaneously, and thereby promote the common prosperity.
  • GAO Haoyu, FANG Jincheng, LI Meng
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2022, 42(12): 3201-3215. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-2068
    Financial technology (FinTech) is critical in empowering banks' reform and innovation, especially in risk management activities. This study uses textual mining methodology to collect and identify the FinTech patent applications at the city level and creatively establishes the local FinTech development index. With the annual data of 148 commercial banks from 2013—2018 in China, this paper quantitively examines whether and how local development of FinTech affects financial institutions' risk management capacity. The main findings show that the FinTech development can significantly reduce the banks' risk, and more significantly in medium-sized banks. This paper employs the amount of news on FinTech related keywords in the Baidu searching engine at the city level as the instrumental variable to alleviate the endogeneity problem and finds robust results. The empirical findings also remain robust after using other alternative measurement on main variables and controlling spatial spillover effects. The mechanism analysis verifies that local FinTech development can significantly reduce the information asymmetry, promote business expansion, and strengthen the banks' risk management ability, thus contributing to the reduction of banks' risk. Moreover, the local regulatory authority efforts and the citizens' awareness of credit consciousness will increase the power of FinTech in risk management. Under the circumstance of the emerging FinTech and its pervasive adoption in commercial banks, profoundly understanding whether and how the FinTech development affects bank risk management will prevent and dissolve the financial risks and contribute to the high-quality development in the financial industry.
  • YU Mei, CHENG Zhiyong, DENG Jun, WANG Shouyang
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2021, 41(11): 2761-2776. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2019-2880

    To capture the "leptokurtosis and fat-tail", the long memory, and other fractal features of financial asset prices, in this paper, we use the time-varying sub-mixed fractional Brownian motion with GARCH structure to describe the dynamic change of risk asset price, besides, the martingale pricing theory is used to obtain the closed form of option price, which extends the traditional BS and fractional Brownian motion model. The US S&P500 Index Option, Korea KOSPI200 Index Option, China SSE 50 ETF Option, China Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Option, China Taiwan Index Option, and India NIFTY Index Option are used to conduct the empirical studies. Our finding shows that the time-varying sub-mixed fractional Brownian motion with GARCH structure has higher pricing accuracy than to BS and sub-mixed fractional Brownian motion model, which has particularly prominent pricing performance in the emerging markets. This research results have important theoretical and practical implication in several aspects, including the reasonable pricing of option, risk management and investment decision-making, and it also contributes to the development of multi-level capital market.

  • TANG Hongting, CAI Xiuding, ZHANG Yanlin, LI Zhihong
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2021, 41(10): 2488-2500. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2020-1590
    The massive product experience and feedback in open innovation community could provide the inspiration of product innovation for enterprise. However, with the explosive growth of unstructured data, traditional opinion mining technology could no longer meet the real demand in terms of effectiveness and efficiency. To this end, this paper proposes a more efficient and timely method for idea extraction using deep learning algorithms. Specifically, firstly, this paper builds a multi-embedding layer CNN model with Dropout mechanism, called ME-CNN, to enhance the local feature extraction and to identify posts containing creative ideas. Then make full use of the feature of Transformer in capturing long-distance dependencies, and the strength of CNN in capturing local semantic information, we introduce a combined model, called TF-CNN, to achieve valuable sentences excluded non-creative texts. Finally, the hierarchical aggregation clustering method (HAC) is used to cluster creative ideas. Through experiments using real data, the results show that our proposed method performs well in extracting users' creativities, which can help enterprises obtain users' ideas from open innovation community more efficiently, and provide efficient decision support tools for product innovation.
  • CHEN Shaoling, TAN Liming, YANG Haisheng, CUI Jie
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2021, 41(8): 1911-1925. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2019-2044
    Employing a weekly sample of Chinese A shares from 2002 to 2017, this paper first computes the sector volatility index for 76 sub-sectors. Based on these indices, a global risk network among sectors is then constructed through a high-dimensional time-varying parameters vector autoregressions (HD-TVP-VAR) model. Afterwards, this paper further examines the systemic importance of financial industries in the risk network from both network topology and empirical analysis perspectives. Results show that, risk spillovers among sectors in Chinese stock market exhibit a complex network structure featured with high connectedness. Specifically, the outbreak of risk events is closely related to the changes in spillover connectedness from financial industries to real economy industries. Second, financial industries play an important role of absorbing risk, with banking being the major risk taker, while the security and future sector being the major risk spreader. Third, the increase in connectedness, transferring from risk-taker to risk-spreader, and the destruction to the stability of network equilibrium are main driving forces underlying systemic financial risk. Forth, financial industries have a greater systematic importance than real economy industries, within which, banking ranks on the top, followed by the security and future sectors. Fifth, real estate sector serves as a risk "bridge" between financial industries and real economy industries which magnifies risk from both sides. Last, high leverage and high liquidity will stimulate risk diffusion, but large scale and heavy investment will help to strengthen risk absorption.
  • LIU Lu, LI Yongjian, JIANG Tao
    Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice. 2021, 41(5): 1179-1196. https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2020-3072
    Blockchain technology is triggering the transformation of supply chain finance, and credit transmission function is most widely used in supply chain finance. Consider a three-tier supply chain consisting of a fully funded manufacturer, a capital constrained distributor and a capital constrained retailer. There are two ways to solve the financial dilemma of the distributor and the retailer, one is the combination of trade credit and supply chain finance, and the other is the blockchain supply chain finance driven by credit transfer function. First, this paper uses the Stackelberg game method to describe the traditional supply chain financing model and the blockchain supply chain financing model. Second, the backward induction method is used to optimize and solve the financing models, and the optimal wholesale price, distribution price and order quantity decisions of the two financing modes in the equilibrium state are obtained. Third, the sensitivity analysis of key parameters such as the retailer's initial capital amount and the time value of enterprise capital are conducted. The two models of traditional supply chain financing model and blockchain supply chain financing model are compared. The results show that:The expected profits of the manufacturer, the distributor, and the retailer are increasing, decreasing, and decreasing with respect to the decrease of the retailer's initial capital amount. Compared with the traditional supply chain financing model, the blockchain supply chain financing model creates value for the supply chain. And when the time value of the capital is high, blockchain supply chain finance creates greater value for the supply chain, and achieves a win-win situation among the manufacturer, the distributor and the retailer. This study demonstrates the operational advantage of the supply chain finance model driven by blockchain technology, and provides decision supports and management implications for the development of blockchain supply chain finance.