Embodied carbon emissions in China's exports to the European Union and driving factors: A provincial-scale analysis

GAO Xin, LIN Lü, LI Meng, WANG Hailin, PAN Xunzhang

Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (8) : 2423-2433.

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中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院期刊网
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Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (8) : 2423-2433. DOI: 10.12011/SETP2023-0953

Embodied carbon emissions in China's exports to the European Union and driving factors: A provincial-scale analysis

  • GAO Xin1, LIN Lü1, LI Meng2, WANG Hailin3, PAN Xunzhang4
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Abstract

This study constructs a Chinese provincial-world multi-regional nested input-output table to estimate China's embodied carbon emissions in exports to the European Union (EU) at the provincial scale, and furthers investigates the driving factors of embodied carbon emissions changes using structural decomposition analysis. The results show that China embodied carbon emissions in exports to the EU in 2017 were 249 MtCO2, equivalent to 2.45% of China's carbon emissions. The provincial distribution of embodied carbon emissions varies significantly, with seven provinces——Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong, Hebei, Zhejiang, Liaoning, and Inner Mongolia which all exported more than 10 MtCO2——together accounting for 56% of China's total embodied carbon emissions in exports to the EU. The four industries directly related to the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism——basic metals, metal products, non-metallic mineral products, and chemical industry——exported 21.44 MtCO2 to the EU, accounting for 9% of China's total. From 2012 to 2017, China's embodied carbon emissions in exports to the EU decreased by 16.62 MtCO2, with 12 provinces increasing their embodied carbon emissions and 18 provinces realizing a decrease. The production structure effect or the direct carbon intensity effect is the primary driving factor of embodied carbon emissions changes in most provinces. The results of this study could provide some references for China to manage embodied carbon emissions and address the EU's carbon border adjustment in the future.

Key words

input-output model / China-EU trade / embodied carbon emissions / provincial-scale / carbon border adjustment

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GAO Xin , LIN Lü , LI Meng , WANG Hailin , PAN Xunzhang. Embodied carbon emissions in China's exports to the European Union and driving factors: A provincial-scale analysis. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2024, 44(8): 2423-2433 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2023-0953

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Funding

Key Science and Technology Special Project of China Power Engineering Consultant Group Company Limited of "Research on ‘30⋅60' Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutral System Solution" Project 7; "Study on Optimization Strategies for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutral Pathways Considering Domestic and International Carbon Market Related Mechanisms"
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