Analysis of the impact of carbon emission trading on carbon emissions in pilot districts: Carbon emission volume and effciency perspectives

CAI Jun, LUO Danna, XIAO Shenyue

Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (9) : 2838-2853.

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Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (9) : 2838-2853. DOI: 10.12011/SETP2023-0830

Analysis of the impact of carbon emission trading on carbon emissions in pilot districts: Carbon emission volume and effciency perspectives

  • CAI Jun1, LUO Danna2, XIAO Shenyue3
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Abstract

Accurately depicting carbon emission efficiency and correctly evaluating the carbon trading policy has important theoretical and practical significance for achieving the "dual carbon" target. Based on an improved stochastic frontier model and a difference-in-difference model, this paper collected panel data on energy consumption and economic input-output for 30 provinces (cities) from 2003 to 2019, and calculated the impact and mechanism of the carbon emission trading policy on carbon emissions and carbon emission efficiency in pilot provinces. Empirical research found that the carbon emission trading policy can reduce carbon emissions by 4.4% in pilot areas, and increase carbon emission efficiency by 10.4%, which helps to promote the goal of achieving "carbon neutrality." Mechanism analysis shows that the carbon trading policy reduces carbon emissions and improves carbon emission efficiency by reducing energy consumption, adjusting energy structure, and limiting production capacity of key industries such as cement; however, the policy does not significantly promote the development of low-carbon technology. Heterogeneity analysis results show that in the implementation of the carbon emission trading policy, the trading price has an adjusting effect, that is, the higher the price, the more significant the carbon reduction effect. These findings provide important insights for promoting the national carbon emission trading policy and have high reference value for achieving the "dual carbon" target.

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pilot market of carbon trading / carbon reduction effect / carbon emission efficiency / stochastic frontier analysis / difference-in-differences method

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CAI Jun , LUO Danna , XIAO Shenyue. Analysis of the impact of carbon emission trading on carbon emissions in pilot districts: Carbon emission volume and effciency perspectives. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2024, 44(9): 2838-2853 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2023-0830

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Funding

The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2023WKYXQN041)
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