重大突发公共卫生事件防控策略计算实验分析

刘明, 开吉, 曹杰

系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (6) : 1950-1964.

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系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (6) : 1950-1964. DOI: 10.12011/SETP2023-1459
论文

重大突发公共卫生事件防控策略计算实验分析

    刘明1, 开吉1, 曹杰2
作者信息 +

Computational experiment analysis of prevention and control strategies for major public health emergencies

    LIU Ming1, KAI Ji1, CAO Jie2
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

本文借鉴外来物种入侵管理思想,构建一类重大突发公共卫生事件防控策略计算实验分析模型.该模型综合考虑了病毒传播扩散过程中的多重异质性,不仅为重大突发公共卫生事件的当前和未来演变构建演化情景,分析不同非医疗干预措施对事件发展的影响,提供升级防控措施的最优时空节点和最小化总感染人数的策略,而且通过病毒检测约束设计,将常见的几种疫情防控策略进行了有机统一刻画.计算实验结果表明,在重大突发公共卫生事件应急响应初期,采取动态清零策略具有其独特的价值,在感染者人数、重症率、危重症率等方面都显著优于其它策略;研究同时发现病毒检测效率、 接触系数等均存在明显的边际递减效应,而强软社交距离政策联合使用效果更优.

Abstract

Inspired by the idea of invasive species management, a computational experiment analysis model of prevention and control strategies for major public health emergencies is proposed in this paper. This model deeply characterizes the multiple heterogeneity in the process of virus transmission. It envisions the scenarios for the current and future evolution of major public health emergencies, analyzes the impact of different non-pharmaceutical interventions on epidemic development, provides the optimal spatiotemporal nodes for upgrading prevention and control measures, and offers strategy for minimizing the total number of infections. Meanwhile, several common epidemic prevention and control strategies have been organically unified and characterized by through the design of virus testing constraints. The computational experimental results indicate that in the early stages of emergency response to major public health emergencies, adopting dynamic reset strategies has its unique value, and is significantly superior to other strategies in terms of the number of infected individuals, severity rate, and critical illness rate. Our study also finds that there is a significant marginal decreasing effect in virus testing efficiency and contact coefficient. Furthermore, the combination of strong and soft social distance policies would have a better effect.

关键词

重大突发公共卫生事件 / 防控策略 / 计算实验 / 入侵物种管理 / 资源配置

Key words

major public health emergencies / prevention and control strategies / computational experiment / invasive species management / resource allocation

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刘明 , 开吉 , 曹杰. 重大突发公共卫生事件防控策略计算实验分析. 系统工程理论与实践, 2024, 44(6): 1950-1964 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2023-1459
LIU Ming , KAI Ji , CAO Jie. Computational experiment analysis of prevention and control strategies for major public health emergencies. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2024, 44(6): 1950-1964 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2023-1459
中图分类号： C935   

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基金

国家自然科学基金(72171119);教育部人文社科基金(23YJAZH074);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划(KYCX22_0556)
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