人工智能对劳动力市场极化的影响与对策

黄旭, 董志强

系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (1) : 272-295.

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系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (1) : 272-295. DOI: 10.12011/SETP2023-0683
论文

人工智能对劳动力市场极化的影响与对策

    黄旭1, 董志强2
作者信息 +

Influence of AI on labor market polarization and countermeasures

    HUANG Xu1, DONG Zhiqiang2
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

当智能资本成本低于中等技能工人的成本, 人工智能将替代中等技能工作岗位进而导致劳动力市场极化现象.本文构建多部门动态一般均衡模型,对比研究三种应对策略: 1)提高中等技能工人劳动生产率, 2)中等技能工人下沉为低技能工人, 3)中等技能工人转化为高技能工人.发现: 三种对策均可以减轻工资极化现象, 但中等技能工人转化为高技能工人可以提高总体劳动力技能水平, 减少收入不平等现象.高(低)技能自动化将减少高(低)技能工人的工资和劳动收入份额, 而创造高(低)指数任务将增加高(低)技能工人工资和劳动收入份额.政府增加新基建投资比例、 减少教育投资比例可以提高社会总产出, 但将加剧工资极化现象, 政府增加教育投资比例、 减少新基建投资比例将有利于缩小收入不平等, 但经济增长效果不如投资新基建.

Abstract

With the decreasing cost of intelligent capital compared to the labor costs of medium-skilled workers, artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to replace jobs in the middle-skilled segment, leading to labor market polarization. This article constructs a dynamic multi-sector general equilibrium model to compare three strategies to cope with this phenomenon: 1) improving the labor productivity of medium-skilled workers, 2) transitioning medium-skilled workers into low-skilled roles, and 3) upskilling medium-skilled workers into high-skilled positions. Findings reveal that all three strategies can mitigate wage polarization, but transforming medium-skilled workers into high-skilled workers can enhance the overall labor force skill level, reduce income inequality, and promote quality employment and shared prosperity. Automation of high (low) skill tasks will decrease the wages and labor income share of high (low) skilled workers, while the creation of high (low) skill tasks will increase their wages and labor income share. The government increasing the proportion of investment in new infrastructure and reducing the proportion of investment in education can increase total social output, but it will intensify wage polarization. The government increasing the proportion of investment in education and reducing the proportion of investment in new infrastructure will help reduce income inequality, but the economic growth effect will not be as good as Invest in new infrastructure.

关键词

就业极化 / 工资极化 / 人工智能

Key words

employment polarization / wage polarization / artificial intelligence

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黄旭 , 董志强. 人工智能对劳动力市场极化的影响与对策. 系统工程理论与实践, 2024, 44(1): 272-295 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2023-0683
HUANG Xu , DONG Zhiqiang. Influence of AI on labor market polarization and countermeasures. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2024, 44(1): 272-295 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2023-0683
中图分类号： F015   

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国家社科基金重大项目（23ZDA098）
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