区域梯次有序碳达峰下我国省际碳转移研究

杨冕, 谢泽宇, 徐飞

系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (7) : 2102-2121.

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系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (7) : 2102-2121. DOI: 10.12011/SETP2022-1523
论文

区域梯次有序碳达峰下我国省际碳转移研究

    杨冕1, 谢泽宇1, 徐飞2
作者信息 +

A study of inter-provincial carbon transfer under regional sequential CO2 peak in China

    YANG Mian1, XIE Zeyu1, XU Fei2
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摘要

推进各地区梯次有序碳达峰是实施"双碳"战略的必然选择, 但同时也可能会加剧区域间的碳转移问题. 本文基于我国多区域投入产出表, 系统分析并直观呈现2017年省际碳转移的网络特征; 在此基础上, 通过构建地方政府策略性达峰模型分析发现, 在各地区梯次有序碳达峰的制度安排下, 为掌握碳达峰主动权以获得更大晋升优势, 发达省份存在通过省际贸易的方式向欠发达省份进一步转移碳排放的内生动力, 而落后省份出于促进当地经济发展的考虑会竞相承接来自发达地区的碳转移. 这一博弈均衡不可避免地导致落后地区承担更沉重的减排压力, 从而造成区域间减排责任的不平等问题. 为有效遏制各地区梯次有序碳达峰下的策略性碳转移, 本文秉持全国一盘棋理念, 基于省际产业关联关系, 分别从碳转出端和碳转入端两个视角, 在省份-行业层面系统识别驱动省际碳转移的关键领域, 从而为优化各地区梯次有序碳达峰方案提供科学的决策参考.

Abstract

Promoting all regions to peak carbon dioxide emissions hierarchically and orderly is an inevitable choice to guarantee that China will achieve carbon dioxide peaking before 2030. Based on China's multi-regional input-output model, this paper finds that the developed eastern provinces with lower carbon dioxide emission intensity and better carbon dioxide peaking conditions transferred many carbon dioxide emissions to the less developed inland provinces with higher carbon emissions intensity 2017. Further analysis by constructing a strategic peak model reveals that under the institutional arrangement of all regions to peak carbon dioxide emissions hierarchically and orderly, developed provinces tend to further transfer carbon emissions to less developed provinces through inter-provincial trading; in contrast, lagging provinces are happy to undertake the carbon dioxide transfer to increase the province's total economic output. So, this model equilibrium will result in lagging regions bearing heavier pressure to reduce emissions, thus creating the problem of unequal responsibility for carbon dioxide emissions reduction between regions. To curb the strategic carbon dioxide transfer behavior of each province under the institutional arrangement of all provinces to peak carbon dioxide emissions hierarchically and orderly, based on the concept of nationwide planning, we systematically identify the key industries at the province-industry level from the perspective of carbon dioxide transfer out (consumption side) and carbon dioxide transfer in (production side), to provide scientific references for optimizing the solutions of all provinces to peak carbon dioxide emissions hierarchically and orderly.

关键词

碳达峰 / 投入产出分析 / 省际贸易 / 隐含碳排放 / 国内国际双循环

Key words

carbon dioxide peaking / input-output analysis / interprovincial trade / embodied carbon dioxide emissions / ''dual circulation" development pattern

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杨冕 , 谢泽宇 , 徐飞. 区域梯次有序碳达峰下我国省际碳转移研究. 系统工程理论与实践, 2023, 43(7): 2102-2121 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1523
YANG Mian , XIE Zeyu , XU Fei. A study of inter-provincial carbon transfer under regional sequential CO2 peak in China. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2023, 43(7): 2102-2121 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-1523
中图分类号： F061.3    X22   

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基金

国家自然科学基金(72073105, 72274073, 71774122)
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