果蔬价格波动与不同收入群体的消费者福利效应——基于EASI非完整需求系统模型的实证分析

朱文博, 韩昕儒, 陈永福

系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (4) : 984-1001.

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系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (4) : 984-1001. DOI: 10.12011/SETP2021-3168
论文

果蔬价格波动与不同收入群体的消费者福利效应——基于EASI非完整需求系统模型的实证分析

    朱文博1, 韩昕儒2, 陈永福3
作者信息 +

Volatility of vegetable and fruit prices and consumer welfare effects in different income groups: An empirical analysis based on the EASI incomplete demand

    ZHU Wenbo1, HAN Xinru2, CHEN Yongfu3
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

蔬菜和水果在中国居民膳食结构中占据重要地位, 其价格波动给消费者福利带来的影响不容忽视, 尤其是对不同收入群体福利的影响存在异质性. 本研究基于非完整需求系统的分析框架, 运用准确映射的斯通指数隐含马歇尔需求系统 (EASI) 模型和国家统计局城镇住户调查微观数据, 考察了果蔬产品间的交叉价格效应以及果蔬价格变动对不同收入群体消费者福利的影响. 研究结果表明, 果蔬产品间存在显著的交叉价格效应, 其中, 鲜蔬菜、鲜水果和鲜瓜果之间存在明显的替代关系, 干蔬菜制品、干果及干瓜果制品对于鲜蔬菜均表现出替代性, 干蔬菜制品也是鲜水果的替代品且替代性较强. 果蔬价格上升会降低消费者福利, 如果不考虑 EASI 非完整需求系统在福利分析时的间接效果, 将会低估消费者福利损失. 蔬菜价格上涨带来的福利损失随着居民收入的提高呈下降趋势, 水果价格上涨带来的福利损失随收入增长则呈现先下降后上升的 “U” 型分布. 因此有必要平抑果蔬价格上涨和保障消费者福利, 并针对收入群体差异制定不同政策措施.

Abstract

Vegetables and fruits play an important role in Chinese diet and the welfare changes brought by price fluctuations to consumers cannot be ignored, especially the heterogeneity among different income groups. Based on the framework of the incomplete demand system, this study uses the EASI model and the microdata from the National Bureau of Statistics to examine the cross-price effect of fruit and vegetable consumption and changes in consumer welfare of different income strata. The research results show that there is a significant cross-price effect between fruit and vegetables. Among them, there is an obvious substitution relationship between fresh vegetables, fresh fruits and fresh melons. Dried vegetable products and dried fruits show substitution for fresh vegetables. Dried vegetable products are also substitutes for fresh fruits and have strong substitutes. The increase in fruit and vegetable prices will reduce consumer welfare. If the indirect effect of the EASI incomplete demand system in welfare analysis is not considered, the loss of residents' welfare will be underestimated. The impact of rising vegetable prices on consumer welfare will decline with increasing income while the influence of rising fruit prices shows a U-shaped distribution. Therefore, it is necessary to calm the rise in the price of fruits and vegetables and protect the consumer welfare. And it is vital to formulate different policies according to different income groups.

关键词

果蔬价格 / 收入分组 / 交叉价格效应 / 福利分析 / EASI 非完整需求系统模型

Key words

price of fruits and vegetables / income group / cross-price effect / welfare analysis / EASI incomplete demand system model

引用本文

导出引用
朱文博 , 韩昕儒 , 陈永福. 果蔬价格波动与不同收入群体的消费者福利效应——基于EASI非完整需求系统模型的实证分析. 系统工程理论与实践, 2023, 43(4): 984-1001 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-3168
ZHU Wenbo , HAN Xinru , CHEN Yongfu. Volatility of vegetable and fruit prices and consumer welfare effects in different income groups: An empirical analysis based on the EASI incomplete demand. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2023, 43(4): 984-1001 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-3168
中图分类号: F323.7   

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基金

2023年中国社会科学院创新工程项目(2023NFSB09);2021年度中央农办农业农村部乡村振兴专家咨询委员会软科学课题(RKX20213204);中央级科研院所基本科研业务费专项(1610052022026)
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