中国的碳达峰承诺是对中国碳排放的硬约束,碳排放EKC的研究中蕴含着碳达峰的启示.论文检验了中国碳排放EKC假说,运用规模报酬可变的数据包络模型,对收入进行了分解,实证分析了资本深化、技术进步在中国碳排放EKC形成中的作用.结果表明,中国在全国范围内存在碳排放EKC,中国的碳排放EKC是资本深化与技术进步共同作用的结果.东部地区存在碳排放EKC,且主要受技术进步的影响;中部、西部地区并不存在碳排放EKC,中国的碳排放EKC受东部地区碳排放EKC的主导.在西部地区内,资本深化与技术进步皆以倒"U"形方式影响碳排放,西部地区的碳达峰可期.资本深化、技术进步对中部地区的碳排放呈复杂的影响,中部地区的碳排放对中国碳达峰的风险值得高度关注.
Abstract
China's carbon peak commitment is a hard constraint on China's carbon emission. We can get enlightenment of carbon peak from the research on carbon emission EKC. This paper tests the EKC hypothesis of China's carbon emissions, and empirically analyzes the role of capital deepening and technological progress in the formation of China's carbon emissions EKC using data envelopment model with variable return to scale. The results show that there exits carbon emission EKC in the whole country. China's carbon emission EKC is the result of the joint action of capital deepening and technological progress. Carbon emission, which is mainly affected by technological progress, is also found in the eastern region of China. There is no carbon emission EKC in the central and western regions. China's carbon emission EKC is dominated by the carbon emission EKC in the eastern region. In the western region of China, capital deepening and technological progress affect carbon emission in an inverted U shape. Capital deepening and technological progress have a complex impact on carbon emissions in the central region. The risk of carbon emissions in the central region to China's carbon peak deserves high attention.
关键词
\资本深化 /
技术进步 /
碳排放EKC /
数据包络分析
{{custom_keyword}} /
Key words
capital deepening /
technological progress /
carbon emission EKC /
data envelopment analysis
{{custom_keyword}} /
中图分类号：
TQ127.11
F127
{{custom_clc.code}}
({{custom_clc.text}})
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] Grossman G M, Krueger A B. Economic growth and the environment[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995, 110(2):353-377.
[2] Wanger M. The carbon kuznets curve:A cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics[J]. Resource and Energy Economics, 2008, 30(3):388-408.
[3] Nicholas A, Ilhan O. Testing environmental kuznets curve hypothesis in Asian countries[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2015, 52:16-22.
[4] Fodha M, Zaghdoud O. Economic growth and pollutant emissions in Tunisia:An empirical analysis of the environmental kuznets curve[J]. Energy Policy, 2010, 38:1150-1156.
[5] 韩玉军,陆#
[28].经济增长与环境的关系-基于对CO2环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究[J].经济理论与经济管理, 2009(3):5-11.Han Y J, Lu Y. Relationship between economic growth and environment-Based on the empirical study of CO2 environmental kuznets curve[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2009(3):5-11.
[6] 林伯强,蒋竺均.中国二氧化碳的环境库兹涅茨曲线预测及影响因素分析[J].管理世界, 2009(4):27-35.Lin B Q, Jiang Z J. Prediction of environmental kuznets curve of carbon dioxide in China and analysis of influencing factors[J]. Management World, 2009(4):27-35.
[7] 张为付,周长富.我国碳排放轨迹呈现库兹涅茨倒U型吗?-基于不同区域经济发展与碳排放关系的分析[J].经济管理, 2011(6):14-23.Zhang W F, Zhou C F. Does China's carbon emission trajectory show kuznets inverted U-shape?-Analysis based on the relationship between economic development and carbon emission in different regions[J]. Economic Management Journal, 2011(6):14-23.
[8] 郑丽琳,朱启贵.中国碳排放库兹涅茨曲线的存在性研究[J].统计研究, 2012(5):58-65.Zheng L L, Zhu Q G. Study on the existence of carbon emission kuznets curve in China[J]. Statistical Research, 2012(5):58-65.
[9] 胡宗义,刘亦文,唐李伟.中国碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究-基于省域面板数据[J].统计研究, 2013(2):37-47.Hu Z Y, Liu Y W, Tang L W. An empirical study on environmental kuznets curve of carbon emission in China-Based on provincial panel data[J]. Statistical Research, 2013(2):37-47.
[10] 王艺明,胡久凯.对中国碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的再检验[J].财政研究, 2016(11):51-64.Wang Y M, Hu J K. Retest to environmental kuznets curve of carbon emission in China[J]. Public Finance Research, 2016(11):51-64.
[11] 顾宁,姜萍萍.中国碳排放的环境库兹涅茨效应识别与低碳政策选择[J].经济管理, 2013(6):153-163.Gu N, Jiang P P. Identification of environmental kuznets effect of carbon emission in China and choice of low-carbon policy[J]. Economic Management, 2013(6):153-163.
[12] 许广月,宋德勇.中国碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究-基于省域面板数据[J].中国工业经济, 2010(5):37-47.Xu G Y, Song D Y. An empirical study on environmental Kuznets curve of carbon emission in China-Based on provincial panel data[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2010(5):37-47.
[13] 陈德湖,张津.中国碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线分析-基于空间面板模型的实证研究[J].统计与信息论坛, 2012(5):48-53.Chen D H, Zhang J. Environmental kuznets curve analysis of carbon emissions in China-Empirical research based on spatial panel model[J]. Statistics&Information Forum, 2012(5):48-53.
[14] 孙作人,周德群,周鹏,等.结构变动与二氧化碳排放库兹涅茨曲线的特征研究-基于分位数回归与指数分解相结合的方法[J].数理统计与管理, 2015(1):59-74.Sun Z R, Zhou D Q, Zhou P, et al. Study on the characteristics of kuznets curve of structural change and carbon dioxide emission-A method based on quantile regression and exponential decomposition[J]. Journal of Applied Statistics and Management, 2015(1):59-74.
[15] 孙英杰,林春.试论环境规制与中国经济增长质量提升-基于环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线[J].上海经济研究, 2018(3):84-94.Sun Y J, Lin C. On environmental regulation and the improvement of the quality of China's economic growth-Based on environmental Kuznets inverted U-curve[J]. Shanghai Journal of Economics, 2018(3):84-94.
[16] 汪明月,李颖明,管开轩.政府市场规制对企业绿色技术创新决策与绩效的影响[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2020, 40(5):1158-1177.Wang M Y, Li Y M, Guan K X. Impact of market regulations on decision-making and performance of enterprises'green technological innovation[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice, 2020, 40(5):1158-1177.
[17] 李锴,齐绍洲.贸易开放、经济增长与中国二氧化碳排放[J].经济研究, 2011(11):60-72.Li K, Qi S Z. Trade opening, economic growth and China's carbon dioxide emissions[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2011(11):60-72.
[18] 韦韬,彭水军.基于多区域投入产出模型的国际贸易隐含能源及碳排放转移研究[J].资源科学, 2017(1):94-104.Wei T, Peng S J. Research on implied energy and carbon emission transfer in international trade-based on multi regional input-output model[J]. Resources Science, 2017(1):94-104.
[19] 林伯强,吴微.中国现阶段经济发展中的煤炭需求[J].中国社会科学, 2018(2):141-161.Lin B Q, Wu W. Coal demand in China's current economic development[J]. Social Sciences in China, 2018(2):141-161.
[20] Dinda S. A theoretical basis for the environmental Kuznets curve[J]. Ecological Economics, 2005, 53(3):403-413.
[21] Kumar W, Russell R. Technological change, technological catch-up, and capital deepening:Relative contributions to growth and convergence[J]. American Economic Review, 2002, 92:527-548.
[22] 徐大丰.技术进步、资本深化与经济增长趋同[J].上海经济研究, 2011(6):31-39.Xu D F. Technological progress, capital deeping and economic growth convergence[J]. Shanghai Journal of Economics, 2011(6):31-39.
[23] 余东华,张鑫宇,孙婷.资本深化、有偏技术进步与全要素生产率增长[J].世界经济, 2019(8):50-71.Yu D H, Zhang X Y, Sun T. Capital deepening, biased technological progress and total factor productivity growth[J]. World Economy, 2019(8):50-71.
[24] 王军辉.规模报酬不变还是递增-来自我国以及五个OECD国家的实证分析[J].财政研究, 2008(8):11-13.Wang J H. Constant or increasing returns to scale-Empirical analysis from China and five OECD countries[J]. Public Finance Research, 2008(8):11-13.
[25] 邓翔,李建平.我国产业集聚的外部性和规模报酬递增的测度[J].区域经济评论, 2013(6):36-40.Deng X, Li J P. Measurement of externality and increasing returns to scale of industrial agglomeration in China[J]. Regional Economic Review, 2013(6):36-40.
[26] 张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000[J].经济研究, 2004(10):35-44. Zhang J, Wu G Y, Zhang J P. Estimation of China's provincial physical capital stock:1952-2000[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2004(10):35-44.
[27] 田凤平,秦瑾龙,杨科.中国三大城市群经济发展的区域差异及收敛性研究[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2021, 47(5):1709-1721.Tian F P, Qin J L, Yang K. Study on regional differences and convergence of economic development of three major urban agglomerations in China[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice, 2021, 47(5):1709-1721.
{{custom_fnGroup.title_cn}}
脚注
{{custom_fn.content}}
基金
国家社会科学基金面上项目(21BJL128)
{{custom_fund}}
PDF(806 KB)
