人民币国际化、汇率波动、跨境结算与中国进出口贸易——基于两国开放经济的均衡模型与“一带一路”沿线国家的实证分析

欧阳海琴, 凌爱凡

系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (12) : 3165-3183.

PDF(999 KB)
中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院期刊网
PDF(999 KB)
系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (12) : 3165-3183. DOI: 10.12011/SETP2021-1836
论文

人民币国际化、汇率波动、跨境结算与中国进出口贸易——基于两国开放经济的均衡模型与“一带一路”沿线国家的实证分析

    欧阳海琴1,3, 凌爱凡2
作者信息 +

RMB internationalization, exchange rate volatility, RMB cross-border settlement and China's trade activity—An analysis from the Belt and Road Initiative countries based on the equilibrium model of two sector open economy

    OUYANG Haiqin1,3, LING Aifan2
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

如何有效和快速地促进国内国际双循环成为当下经济发展中遇到的新问题.本文基于两国市场组成的开放经济均衡模型，以货币国际化、汇率风险、货币跨境结算和进出口贸易为视角，通过人民币国际化改善中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的进出口贸易路径，推进"双循环"格局良性互动.理论分析发现，货币国际化程度的上升促进货币所有国的进出口贸易水平，而汇率水平、汇率波动率和跨境结算份额是该国货币国际化对其进出口贸易水平产生影响的可能渠道.进一步使用中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的进出口贸易数据实证发现，人民币国际化程度的提升能够显著改善中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的进出口贸易水平，与理论预期一致，并且在控制了若干宏观变量后依然显著.与传统文献结果不同，我们的实证结果发现，人民币国际化水平上升引起进出口贸易水平增加，不是通过汇率水平增加或汇率风险下降的渠道产生，而是由于人民币跨境结算占比份额上升形成了人民币结算的"同伴效应"导致.本文研究对如何稳步推进人民币国际化和提升双循环经济发展有一定的参考价值.

Abstract

A new problem of economic development today is how to effectively promote a double cycle between China and internationality. In this study, a framework of currency internationalization, exchange rate risk and of cross-border settlement was built based on "an equilibrium model of open economy of two markets". We would like to impel the interactions of this double cycle through RMB internationalization, which improving import and export trade of China and the Belt and Road Initiative countries. Theoretical analysis in this paper reveals that degree of currency internationalization has a great important effect on import and export trade, while exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and cross-border settlement are responsible for the effect. In addition, the solid evidences of import and export trade of China and the Belt and Road Initiative countries indeed show RMB internationalization make a great difference to the import and export trade, which is corresponding with the theoretical analysis very well. Unlike traditional literatures, our results indicate RMB internationalization can increase import and export trade by the peer effect of RMB settlement, rather than by increasing in exchange rate or decreasing in exchange rate risk, and the peer effect is result from the increasing of RMB cross-border settlement. This research can provide some suggestions for steadily promoting the RMB internationalization and accelerating the economic development of the double cycle.

关键词

人民币国际化 / 一带一路 / 汇率水平 / 开放经济模型 / 汇率波动率 / 人民币跨境结算

Key words

RMB internationalization / the Belt and Road Initiative / level of exchange rate / open economy model / exchange rate volatility / RMB cross-border settlement

引用本文

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

导出引用
欧阳海琴 , 凌爱凡. 人民币国际化、汇率波动、跨境结算与中国进出口贸易——基于两国开放经济的均衡模型与“一带一路”沿线国家的实证分析. 系统工程理论与实践, 2022, 42(12): 3165-3183 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-1836
OUYANG Haiqin , LING Aifan. RMB internationalization, exchange rate volatility, RMB cross-border settlement and China's trade activity—An analysis from the Belt and Road Initiative countries based on the equilibrium model of two sector open economy. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2022, 42(12): 3165-3183 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-1836
中图分类号： F752.6    F752.7   

参考文献

[1] Serenis D, Tsounis N. The effects of exchange rate volatility on sectoral exports evidence from Sweden, UK, and Germany[J]. International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, 2014, 5(1):71-107.
[2] 原子霞, 杨政. 汇率波动对中国出口有非对称影响吗?[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2016, 36(2):308-318. Yuan Z X, Yang Z. Does exchange rate volatility affect China's exports asymmetrically[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2016, 36(2):308-318.
[3] 戴志锋, 康杰, 王雄. 人民币汇率的可预测性与预测因子选择[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2021, 41(11):2822-2836. Dai Z F, Kang J, Wang X. Predictability of the RMB exchange rate and predictor selection[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2021, 41(11):2822-2836.
[4] Krugman P. Vehicle currencies and the structure of international exchange[J]. Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 1980, 12(3):513-526.
[5] Pardo R P, Knoerich J, Li Y. The role of London and Frankfurt in supporting the internationalisation of the Chinese Renminbi[J]. New Political Economy, 2019, 24(4):530-545.
[6] Frankel J, Rose A. An estimate of the effect of common currencies on trade and income[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2002, 117(2):437-466.
[7] Ito T. A new financial order in Asia:Will a RMB bloc emerge?[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2017, 74(6):232-257.
[8] Ryan J. Chinese Renminbi arrival in the "Tripolar" global monetary regime[J]. China and World Economy, 2015, 23(6):44-55.
[9] 李红权, 何敏园, 周亮.人民币在岸市场的国际影响力研究:基于修正的溢出指数模型[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2020, 40(6):1468-1477. Li H Q, He M Y, Zhou L. The international influence of the RMB onshore market:Based on modified information spillover index model[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2020, 40(6):1468-1477.
[10] Parsley D C. Exchange rate pass-through in South Africa:Panel evidence from individual goods and services[J]. Journal of Development Studies, 2012, 48(7):832-846.
[11] 田侃, 倪红福, 倪江飞. 人民币实际有效汇率对中美贸易的影响——基于全球价值链视角的分析[J]. 经济学动态, 2019(1):92-102. Tian K, Ni H F, Ni J F. The effect of RMB's real effective rate on Sino-US trade-From the perspective of global value chains[J]. Economic Perspectives, 2019(1):92-102.
[12] 曹伟, 言方荣, 鲍曙明. 人民币汇率变动、邻国效应与双边贸易——基于中国与"一带一路"沿线国家空间面板模型的实证分析[J]. 金融研究, 2016(9):50-66. Cao W, Yan F R, Bao S M. An empirical research on RMB exchange rate fluctuations, neighboring countries effects and bilateral trades:Based on spacial panel data model for china and "One Belt and One Road" countries[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2016(9):50-66.
[13] 张会清, 翟孝强. 全球价值链、汇率传递与出口贸易弹性[J]. 世界经济研究, 2019(2):85-98. Zhang H Q, Zhai X Q. Global value chain, exchange rate pass-through and export elasticity[J]. World Economy Studies, 2019(2):85-98.
[14] 李宏彬, 马弘, 熊艳艳. 人民币汇率对企业进出口贸易的影响——来自中国企业的实证研究[J]. 金融研究, 2011(2):1-16. Li H B, Ma H, Xiong Y Y. The impact of RMB exchange rate on Enterprises' import and export trade-An empirical study from Chinese enterprises[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2011(2):1-16.
[15] 田朔, 张伯伟, 沈得芳. 汇率变动与中国企业出口——兼论企业异质性行为[J]. 国际贸易问题, 2016(7):141-152. Tian S, Zhang B W, Shen D F. Exchange rate movements and Chinese firm-level export-With discussion of heterogeneous behavior of firms[J]. Journal of International Trade, 2016(7):141-152.
[16] 潘慧, 崔冉, 温雪. "一带一路" 背景下人民币汇率变动对中国对外贸易的非对称影响研究[J]. 山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2019(6):77-85. Pan H, Cui R, Wen X. Research on asymmetric effect of RMB exchange rate on Chinese foreign trade under the background of "Belt and Road" initiative[J]. Journal of Shandong University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2019(6):77-85.
[17] Rashid A, Fountas S, Murphy E. Exchange rate fluctuations, firm size, and export behavior:An empirical investigation[J]. Small Business Economics, 2017, 49(3):609-625.
[18] Beedin D, Fountas S, Murphy E. An empirical analysis of short-run and long-run Irish export functions:Does exchange rate volatility matter[J]. International Review of Applied Economics, 2003(17):193-208.
[19] Grier K B, Smallwood A D. Uncertainty and export performance:Evidence from 18 countries[J]. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, 39(4):965-979.
[20] Smallwood A D. Analyzing exchange rate uncertainty and bilateral export growth in China:A multivariate GARCH-based approach[J]. Economic Modelling, 2019, 82:332-344.
[21] 文凤华, 杨鑫, 龚旭, 等. 金融危机背景下中美投资者情绪的传染性分析[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2015, 35(3):623-629. Wen F H, Yang X, Gong X, et al. The research on investor sentiment contagion between China and U.S. based on the background of financial crisis[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2015, 35(3):623-629.
[22] 袁申国, 郑雯. 人民币实际汇率波动对外向型企业进出口影响实证分析——基于行业层面比较[J]. 国际经贸探索, 2015, 31(11):88-103. Yuan S G, Zheng W. An empirical analysis of the effect of RMB real effective exchange rate fluctuations on imports and exports of export-oriented enterprises:A comparison based on industry level[J]. International Economics and Trade Research, 2015, 31(11):88-103.
[23] Mohsen B O, Huseyin K. Exchange rate volatility and Japan-U.S. commodity trade:An asymmetry analysis[J]. The World Economy, 2019, 42(11):3287-3318.
[24] Trichet J C. The Euro after 20 years is a historic success[J]. Review of World Economics, 2019, 155:5-14.
[25] Zhang F, Yu M, Yu J, et al. The effect of RMB internationalization on Belt and Road initiative:Evidence from Bilateral Swap agreements[J]. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 2017, 53(10-12):2845-2857.
[26] Mika A, Zymek R. Friends without benefits? New EMU members and the "Euro Effect" on trade[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2018, 83(5):75-92.
[27] 蒲岳, 吴钢, 姚星, 等. 人民币国际化对中国出口增长边际的影响[J]. 世界经济研究, 2016(11):11-23. Pu Y, Wu G, Yao X, et al. The impact of RMB internationalization on China's export growth margin[J]. World Economy Studies, 2016(11):11-23.
[28] 张原, 宋晓玲. "一带一路"经贸发展是否促进了人民币国际化——基于人民币跨境结算影响因素的实证研究[J]. 国际金融, 2020(5):17-21. Zhang Y, Song X L. Does the "One belt, One road" economic and trade development promote RMB internationalization-An empirical study on the influences of RMB cross-border settlement[J]. Studies of of International Finance, 2020(5):17-21.
[29] 李兵, 颜晓晨. 中国与"一带一路"沿线国家双边贸易的新比较优势——公共安全的视角[J]. 经济研究, 2018, 53(1):183-197. Li B, Yan X C. China's new comparative advantage of trading with Belt and Road countries:Public security perspectives[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2018, 53(1):183-197.
[30] 姜薇, 陶士贵. 人民币国际化背景下中资银行"走出去"能提高自身效率吗? 基于异质性视角的Malmquist指数实证分析[J]. 现代经济探讨, 2019(3):34-43. Jiang W, Tao S G. Can the "Going Out" of Chinese banks improve their own efficiency under the background of the RMB internationalization? Based on the Malmquist index from a heterogeneous perspective[J]. Modern Economic Research, 2019(3):34-43.
[31] 曹伟, 罗建强. 人民币汇率变动对进口贸易的影响——基于中国与"一带一路"沿线国家分行业贸易面板数据的研究[J]. 国际商务——对外经济贸易大学学报, 2020(4):64-79. Cao W, Luo J Q. The impact of RMB exchange rate changes on import trade-Based on the research of trade panel data by industry between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road"[J]. International Business, 2020(4):64-79.
[32] Baek J. Does the exchange rate matter to bilateral trade between Korea and Japan? Evidence from commodity trade data[J]. Economic Modelling, 2013, 30(1):856-862.
[33] Bahmani-Oskooee M, Gelan A. Exchange-rate volatility and international trade performance:Evidence from 12 African countries[J]. Economic Analysis and Policy, 2018, 58:14-21.
[34] Cairns J, Ho C, McCauley R. Exchange rates and global volatility:Implications for Asia-pacific currencies[J]. BIS Quarterly Review, 2007(3):41-52.

基金

国家自然科学基金（71771107，72071098）；国家社科基金重大项目（21ZDA045）；江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目（JJ20216）
PDF(999 KB)

1025

Accesses

0

Citation

Detail
段落导航
相关文章

/

〈 〉