近年来，在"双十一"等网络热销期，折价、"定金膨胀"等预售模式日益盛行.消费者在享受优惠的同时也面临着预购产品估值不确定的风险，进而影响消费者预购行为和零售商收益.因而如何选择合适的预售模式，如何确定最优的预售价、尾款、订购量等是零售商制定预售模式时面临的重要问题.本文考虑风险厌恶的策略型消费者在折价和"定金膨胀"预售模式下的购买行为，构建消费者估值、效用函数和零售商收益模型，研究折价预售与"定金膨胀"预售模式下零售商最优订购量和预售价.通过比较和数值计算，分析了不同影响因素对两种预售模式选择的影响，得到了零售商选择何种预售模式的临界阈值.研究表明：面对策略型消费者，零售商折价预售模式下的最优预售价小于"定金膨胀"预售下的最优预售价，但折价预售下的最优订购量大于"定金膨胀"预售模式下的最优订购量.零售商的进货成本、定金膨胀系数和定金占比等均影响零售商预售决策.
Abstract
In recent years, discount and deposit pre-sale modes have become increasingly popular during hot sale period. However, consumers face the risk of uncertainty in the valuation of product, which affect pre-purchase behavior and retailer revenue. Therefore, how to choose a suitable pre-sale mode and determine the optimal pre-sale price, final payment, order quantity are important issues that retailer faced. This paper considered the purchase behavior of risk-averse strategic consumers under two pre-sale modes, constructed consumer valuation, utility function, retailer revenue models. And studied the optimal order quantity and pre-sale price decision under two pre-sale modes, and obtained the critical threshold of which pre-sale mode the retailer choose. Through comparison, analyzed the influence of different factors on the optimal profit under the two pre-sale modes. Research shows that facing strategic consumers, the optimal pre-sale price under the discount mode is less than deposit inflation mode, but the optimal order amount under the discount mode is greater than deposit inflation mode. The retailer's order cost, the deposit inflation coefficient and the percentage of the deposit affect the retailer's pre-sale decision.
关键词
风险厌恶 /
策略型消费者 /
折价预售 /
定金膨胀
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Key words
risk aversion /
strategic consumer /
discount pre-sale /
deposit inflation
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中图分类号：
C93
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脚注
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基金
国家自然科学基金（71572033）；国家自然科学基金重点项目（71832001）
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