在高速公路PPP项目中，交通量的不确定性和通货膨胀将极大的影响私营部门的收益，政府常常提供最小交通量保障、价格调整等政策来吸引私营部门投资.为了评估政府保障政策的影响程度，建立了最小交通量保障模型、价格调整模型和交通量上限模型，模型中采用了二叉树法和蒙特卡罗仿真相结合的方法模拟了特许期的实际交通量情况，最后使用实际案例对三种模型进行分析比较，得出在该案例中价格调整对项目净现值的影响大于最小交通量保障的影响，此外项目最适宜的政府保障是在最小交通量保障的基础上辅以交通量上限条件.这种分析方法不仅可用于政府制定合理的保障政策，而且可以为私营部门的投资决策提供参考依据.
Abstract
In the highway PPP projects, the traffic uncertainty and inflation would have a serious effect on revenue of private sectors. Government usually provides government guarantees, such as minimum traffic guarantee (MTG), tariff and so on, to attract private sectors. In order to evaluate the value of government guarantees, this paper established model of MTG, model of tariff and model of traffic cap (TC). The binomial lattice and Monte Carlo simulation was adopted to simulate operating traffic in these models. Finally, these models were applied to a highway PPP project. The authors find that the impact of tariff on the net present value is greater than that of minimum traffic guarantee in the project. In addition, as for the project, the optimal government guarantee option is a compound option of MTG and TC. The proposed models not only can help government develop reasonable guarantee policies but also can help private sectors to make better investment decisions.
关键词
交通运输经济 /
政府保障 /
蒙特卡罗 /
高速公路 /
PPP项目
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Key words
transportation economy /
government guarantee /
Monte Carlo /
highway /
PPP project
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中图分类号：
F542
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脚注
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基金
西南交通大学博士研究生创新基金（D-CX201728）
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