为应对重大非常规突发事件的挑战, 增强与完善应急管理能力, 开展了基于社会网络的传播动力学集成仿真原型平台的研究与构建工作. 该原型平台融合了社会网络模型与传播动力学模型的研究内容, 建立了针对应急管理的集成仿真原 型的概念框架, 提出了以非常规突发事件为情景的仿真规划等方法, 以及相应的应急管理措施与定量评估指标为主、 定性评估指标为辅的评估方法, 并给出了疫情在香港爆发的历史事件作为应急管理的一个仿真示例.
Abstract
To cope with the challenges raised by major unconventional emergencies, enhance and improve the ability of emergency management, this paper introduces a study and an integrated simulation prototype platform of propagation dynamics based on social network analysis. The platform integrates typical models for building social networks and propagation dynamics, builds a conceptual framework of integrated simulation for emergency management, and provides simulation methods of scenario planning for unconventional emergencies, as well as assessment methods on quantitative with supplement qualitative indicators. In the end, a case study, simulation of the SARS in Hong Kong, is given.
关键词
应急管理 /
社会网络分析 /
传播动力学 /
建模与仿真
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Key words
emergency management /
social network analysis /
spreading dynamics /
modelling and simulation
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中图分类号：
TP182
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脚注
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基金
国家自然科学基金(91324002)
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