论文针对差价合约电力市场，在考虑价格上下限条件下构建期权博弈模型，探讨寡头发电商的容量投资策略；然后运用数值仿真方法，考察不同差价合约和 价格上限条件下的发电容量投资阈值和最优容量选择，并在此基础上，基于发电机组负荷率和电力市场勒拉指数讨论有效差价合约.研究表明：1）差价合约电量比重较少时，差价合约电价对投资策略几乎没影响，而差价合约电价较高时，随差价合约电量比重的递增，投资阈值和最优容量会出 现跳跃式下降；2）存在“既能保障有效的电力供给，又能确保实现较高市场效率”的有效差价合约.
Abstract
With price limit and contracts for difference (CFD), this paper presents an oligopoly capacity investment model to explore power producers' investment strategy. We simulate the model and investigate the investment threshold and optimal capacity choice under different CFDs and price cap conditions, and effective CFD is discussed with the criterion of power unit load ratio and Lerner index. The analysis result indicates, 1) the impact of CFD price to investment strategy is little when the proportion of power in CFD is small, but the investment threshold and optimal capacity will jump downward with CFD power increasing when CFD price is higher. 2) There is an effective CFD in some power market, which ensures adequate power supply and higher market efficiency.
关键词
差价合约 /
价格上限 /
容量投资 /
期权博弈 /
电力市场
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Key words
contracts for difference (CFD) /
price cap /
capacity investment /
option game /
power market
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中图分类号：
F830.59
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参考文献
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脚注
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基金
国家自然科学基金（71271033，70971012）；教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划（NCET-11-0978）；湖南省高校创新平台开放基金（13K057）
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