基于灰色预测与模式识别的企业危机预警模型研究

孙星;邱菀华;唐葆君

系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2005, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (5) : 36-42.

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中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院期刊网
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系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2005, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (5) : 36-42. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2005)5-36
论文

基于灰色预测与模式识别的企业危机预警模型研究

    孙星(1),邱菀华(1),唐葆君(2)
作者信息 +

The Research about Model of Early-warning of Enterprise Crisis Basedon Gray Forecasting and Pattern Recognition

    Xing SUN(1),Wan Hua QIU(1),Bao Jun TANG(2)
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摘要

针对当前大部分企业危机预警模型只能报警,不能预测的现状,提出一种基于灰色预测与模式识别的预警方法.该方法首先对企业运营的单项特征指标建立灰色模型,其次将所有指标的模型组合起来,构成系统状态方程进行预测,然后利用模式识别的方法对预测结果进行分类,判断企业的危机状态,最后用实例验证该模型的有效性.

Abstract

Due to most of current early-warning of enterprise crisis only give a alarm other forecast, the paper presents a method based on gray forecasting and pattern recognition. Firstly, gray forecasting model is built for single feature index respectively, and various models are combined in system state formula to forecast. Then the calculating result is classified to judge state of enterprise with the pattern recognition model. Finally, the case is verified to.

关键词

灰色预测 / 模式识别 / 企业危机预警

Key words

gray forecasting / pattern recognition / early-warning of enterprise crisis

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孙星 , 邱菀华 , 唐葆君. 基于灰色预测与模式识别的企业危机预警模型研究. 系统工程理论与实践, 2005, 25(5): 36-42 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788(2005)5-36
Xing SUN , Wan Hua QIU , Bao Jun TANG. The Research about Model of Early-warning of Enterprise Crisis Basedon Gray Forecasting and Pattern Recognition. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2005, 25(5): 36-42 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788(2005)5-36
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