Measurement on dual circulation and endogenous dynamics analysis of domestic circulation

GAN Chunhui, MAN Ben

Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (11) : 3090-3109.

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Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (11) : 3090-3109. DOI: 10.12011/SETP2022-2989

Measurement on dual circulation and endogenous dynamics analysis of domestic circulation

  • GAN Chunhui1, MAN Ben2
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Abstract

Propose a complete framework for decomposing value added, the multiplier decomposition and structural decomposition methods are extended to the multi-country and multi-sector input-output model to quantitatively analyze the dual circulation evolution trend of China and the endogenous power of the domestic circulation from 2000 to 2020. Research Findings: The overall dependence of China's economic development on the domestic circulation is in a "U" shape, and the inflection point appeared in 2006. On the left side of the inflection point, the main reason for the decline of the domestic circulation is China's decreasing value-added rate; on the right side of the inflection point, the improvement of the final demand rate, the toal demand coefficient and the value-added rate become the main driving force for the domestic circulation to rise in turn. Compared with investment, consumption has always been the main factor affecting the domestic circulation change in final domestic demand. The countries relying on the external circulation have shifted from developed countries to developing countries and developed countries. The dependence of the development of manufacturing industry on the domestic circulation has also increased since 2008. During this period, the increase of the toal demand coefficient of the service industry for the manufacturing industry, the upgrading of the industrial structure, and the improvement of the manufacturing value-added rate have successively occupied the main position in the cyclical rise of the manufacturing industry. The change in the domestic circulation of digital industry is dominated by its own final demand rate or the total demand coefficient of non-digital industry, and the dominant industries in the domestic circulation of non-digital industry are mainly themselves.

Key words

dual circulation / endogenous power / input-output / multiplier decomposition / structural decomposition

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GAN Chunhui , MAN Ben. Measurement on dual circulation and endogenous dynamics analysis of domestic circulation. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2023, 43(11): 3090-3109 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2022-2989

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Funding

National Social Science Foundation of China (22&ZD067)
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