Good and bad jump spillovers: A perspective of mutually exciting jumps

ZHANG Chuanhai, SUN Yucheng, XU Wen

Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (4) : 1068-1087.

PDF(644 KB)
PDF(644 KB)
Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (4) : 1068-1087. DOI: 10.12011/SETP2021-2001

Good and bad jump spillovers: A perspective of mutually exciting jumps

  • ZHANG Chuanhai1, SUN Yucheng2, XU Wen2
Author information +
History +

Abstract

Using the CSI 300 index futures and spot markets as an example, this paper investigates the structure and dynamics of good (positive) and bad (negative) jump spillovers between financial markets from the perspective of mutually exciting jumps. First, we find that jump spillovers are asymmetric, and bad jump spillovers, on average, are stronger than good jump spillovers. Second, jump spillovers differ in bear and bull markets, bad jump spillovers are more evident than good jump spillovers in bear markets while good jump spillovers are more evident than bad jump spillovers in bull markets, however, these conclusions do not survive in some bull and bear markets. Third, we also document intraday aftershock effects of jump spillovers, especially for bad jump spillovers. Overall, we document bidirectional jump spillovers between the two markets and jump spillovers vary over time. For example, during the period of tightened trading rules on CSI 300 index futures, jump spillovers from the futures market to the spot market weakened, while the jump spillovers from the spot market to the futures market strengthened.

Key words

jump spillovers / asymmetry / mutually exciting jumps / aftershock effect / index futures / high frequency data

Cite this article

Download Citations
ZHANG Chuanhai , SUN Yucheng , XU Wen. Good and bad jump spillovers: A perspective of mutually exciting jumps. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2023, 43(4): 1068-1087 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2021-2001

References

[1] 谢赤, 贺慧敏, 王纲金, 等. 基于复杂网络的泛金融市场极端风险溢出效应及其演变研究[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2021, 41(8): 1926-1941.Xie C, He H M, Wang G J, et al. Extreme risk spillover effects of pan-financial markets and its evolution based on complex networks[J]. Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice, 2021, 41(8): 1926-1941.
[2] 唐文进, 苏帆. 极端金融事件对系统性风险的影响分析——以中国银行部门为例[J]. 经济研究, 2017, 52(4): 17-33. Tang W J, Su F. An analysis of the effects of extreme financial events on systemic risk: Evidence from China's banking sector[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2017, 52(4): 17-33.
[3] 陈国进, 丁杰, 赵向琴. "坏"跳跃、 "好"跳跃与高频波动率预测[J]. 管理科学, 2018, 31(6): 3-16.Chen G J, Ding J, Zhao X Q. "Good" jumps, "Bad" jumps and high-frequency volatility forecasting[J]. Journal of Management Science, 2018, 31(6): 3-16.
[4] Guo H, Wang K, Zhou H. Good jumps, bad jumps, and conditional equity premium[R]. SSRN Working Paper, 2019.
[5] Fulop A, Li J, Yu J. Self-exciting jumps, learning, and asset pricing implications[J]. The Review of Financial Studies, 2015, 28(3): 876-912.
[6] Aït-Sahalia Y, Cacho-Diaz J, Laeven R J A. Modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2015, 117(3): 585-606.
[7] 朱福敏, 郑尊信, 吴恒煜. 跳跃自激发与非对称交叉回馈机制下的期权定价研究[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2018, 38(1): 1-15. Zhu F M, Zheng Z X, Wu H Y. Option pricing for the dynamics of jump-diffusion model with jump self-exciting and asymmetric cross-feedback[J]. Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice, 2018, 38(1): 1-15.
[8] 陈海强, 张传海. 股指期货交易会降低股市跳跃风险吗?[J]. 经济研究, 2015, 50(1): 153-167. Chen H Q, Zhang C H. Does index futures trading reduce stock market jump risk?[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2015, 50(1): 153-167.
[9] 刘庆富, 朱垚, 方力. 股指期现货间的跳跃扩散效应及其信息含量——基于跳跃变量回归模型的新证据[J]. 复旦学报 (社会科学版), 2013(4): 17-25. Liu Q F, Zhu Y, Fang L. Jump diffusion and information content between stock index futures and its spot markets: A new evidence on regressive models of jump variables[J]. Fudan Journal (Social Sciences), 2013(4): 17-25.
[10] 周爱民, 韩菲. 股指期货与现货市场的风险溢出研究[J]. 财贸经济, 2017, 38(8): 52-65.Zhou A M, Han F. Risk spillovers between stock index futures and stock markets[J]. Finance & Trade Economics, 2017, 38(8): 52-65.
[11] Yang J, Yang Z, Zhou Y. Intraday price discovery and volatility transmission in stock index and stock index futures markets: Evidence from China[J]. Journal of Futures Markets, 2012, 32(2): 99-121.
[12] 左浩苗, 刘振涛, 曾海为. 基于高频数据的股指期货与现货市场波动溢出和信息传导研究[J]. 金融研究, 2012(4): 140-154.Zuo H M, Liu Z T, Zeng H W. Volatility spillover and information transmission in China's stock index futures and spot markets: Empirical evidence from high frequency data[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2012(4): 140-154.
[13] 汪冬华, 索园园. 我国沪深300股指期货和现货市场的交叉相关性及其风险[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2014, 34(3): 631-639.Wang D H, Suo Y Y. Cross-correlation and risk measurement between CSI 300 index futures and spot markets in China[J]. Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice, 2014, 34(3): 631-639.
[14] 赵慧敏, 陈晓倩, 黄嵩. 中国股指期货和现货市场信息传导关系在牛熊市中的异化现象[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2018, 38(4): 863-872.Zhao H M, Chen X Q, Huang S. Difference of information transmission between the Chinese stock and index futures markets[J]. Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice, 2018, 38(4): 863-872.
[15] 王明涛, 孙西明, 陈云. 中国股指期货跳跃对股指现货跳跃的影响研究——基于同步与延伸交易的视角[J]. 管理科学学报, 2018, 21(8): 64-82.Wang M T, Sun X M, Chen Y. Jump effects of stock index futures on its underlying spot index in China: A perspective of synchronous and extending trading[J]. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2018, 21(8): 64-82.
[16] 简志宏, 朱祉璨, 刘静一, 等. 基于日内跳跃的信息溢出效应研究——来自中国股指期现货市场的证据[J]. 金融学季刊, 2020, 14(1): 122-139.Jian Z H, Zhu Z C, Liu J Y, et al. Research on information spillover effects of intraday jump risk: Evidence from the Chinese spot and futures markets[J]. Quarterly Journal of Finance, 2020, 14(1): 122-139.
[17] Baruník J, Kočenda E, Vácha L. Asymmetric connectedness on the US stock market: Bad and good volatility spillovers[J]. Journal of Financial Markets, 2016, 27: 55-78.
[18] Reboredo J C, Rivera-Castro M A, Ugolini A. Downside and upside risk spillovers between exchange rates and stock prices[J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2016, 62: 76-96.
[19] BenSaïda A. Good and bad volatility spillovers: An asymmetric connectedness[J]. Journal of Financial Markets, 2019, 43: 78-95.
[20] Dungey M, Erdemlioglu D, Matei M, et al. Testing for mutually exciting jumps and financial flights in high frequency data[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2018, 202(1): 18-44.
[21] Lee S S, Mykland P A. Jumps in financial markets: A new nonparametric test and jump dynamics[J]. The Review of Financial Studies, 2008, 21(6): 2535-2563.
[22] Chen X, Ghysels E. News-good or bad-and its impact on volatility predictions over multiple horizons[J]. The Review of Financial Studies, 2011, 24(1): 46-81.
[23] Patton A J, Sheppard K. Good volatility, bad volatility: Signed jumps and the persistence of volatility[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 2015, 97(3): 683-697.
[24] 陈声利, 关涛, 李一军. 基于跳跃、 好坏波动率与百度指数的股指期货波动率预测[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2018, 38(2): 299-316.Chen S L, Guan T, Li Y J. Forecasting realized volatility of Chinese stock index futures based on jumps, goood-bad volatility and Baidu index[J]. Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice, 2018, 38(2): 299-316.
[25] Carr P, Wu L. Leverage effect, volatility feedback, and self-exciting market disruptions[J]. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2017, 52(5): 2119-2156.
[26] 顾锋娟, 金德环. 投资者过度反应与牛熊市波动非对称性[J]. 数理统计与管理, 2013, 32(3): 533-544.Gu F J, Jin D H. Investors' over-response and asymmetric volatility phenomenon in bull and bear markets[J]. Journal of Applied Statistics and Management, 2013, 32(3): 533-544.
[27] De Bondt W F, Thaler R. Does the stock market overreact?[J]. The Journal of Finance, 1985, 40(3): 793-805.
[28] Wang J X, Yang M. Conditional volatility persistence[R]. SSRN Working Paper, 2018.
[29] Jing B Y, Kong X B, Liu Z, et al. On the jump activity index for semimartingales[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2012, 166(2): 213-223.
[30] Pagan A R, Sossounov K A. A simple framework for analyzing bull and bear markets[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2003, 18(1): 23-46.
[31] 张传海, 陈海强, 姜盼. 市场微观结构噪声真的仅仅是"噪声"么? ——来自我国A股市场的经验研究[J]. 数理统计与管理, 2021, 40(5): 932-950.Zhang C H, Chen H Q, Jiang P. Is market microstructure noise really just "noise"? Evidence from the empirical study for the Chinese A stock market[J]. Journal of Applied Statistics and Management, 2021, 40(5): 932-950.
[32] 陶利斌, 潘婉彬, 黄筠哲. 沪深300股指期货价格发现能力的变化及其决定因素[J]. 金融研究, 2014(4): 128-142.Tao L B, Pan W B, Huang J Z. The determinates of discover in CSI 300 stock index futures[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2014(4): 128-142.
[33] 丁逸俊, 冯芸. 现货市场异常波动下股指期货交易限制对市场质量的影响分析[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2017, 37(10): 2481-2496. Ding Y J, Feng Y. Analyzing the impact of stock index futures' trading limits on market quality during abnormal fluctuations in the spot market[J]. Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice, 2017, 37(10): 2481-2496.
[34] 许荣, 刘成立. 限制交易政策如何影响期现关系? ——对股指期货价格发现功能的实证检验[J]. 金融研究, 2019(2): 154-168.Xu R, Liu C L. How do restrictive trading regulations affect the relationship between stock index futures and the spot market?[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2019(2): 154-168.
[35] 李政, 卜林, 郝毅. 我国股指期货价格发现功能的再探讨——来自三个上市品种的经验证据[J]. 财贸经济, 2016, 37(7): 79-93.Li Z, Bu L, Hao Y. Further discussion on price discover function of Chinese stock index futures: Evidence from three listed species[J]. Finance & Trade Economics, 2016, 37(7): 79-93.
[36] Du D, Luo D. The pricing of jump propagation: Evidence from spot and options markets[J]. Management Science, 2019, 65(5): 2360-2387.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China (72103150); Youth Program of Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of Ministry of Education of China (18YJC790210); China Scholarship Council (201907085012); The Innovation and Talent Base for Digital Technology and Finance (B21038)
PDF(644 KB)

480

Accesses

0

Citation

Detail

Sections
Recommended

/