A hybrid estimation method of processing short-term lag year data in the compiling multi-regional input-output table

TANG Zhipeng, MEI Zi'ao

Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (1) : 265-272.

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Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (1) : 265-272. DOI: 10.12011/SETP2020-0381

A hybrid estimation method of processing short-term lag year data in the compiling multi-regional input-output table

  • TANG Zhipeng1,2, MEI Zi'ao1,2
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Abstract

Input-output analysis is a quantitative method of national economic decision-making, and input-output table is its data foundation. At present, multi-regional input-output (MRIO) table plays an important role in analyzing the socio-economic impact of multiple regions and the decision-making of resource and environmental protection. The core work of MRIO table compilation is to determine the inter-regional trade flow matrix of different products, and the establishment of the matrix depends more on the non-investigation mathematical method, the gravity model is an important method. Due to the large number of product data of MRIO table compiling demand, there is often a short time lag in some data samples. Ordinary linear regression or spatial regression was used to estimate the parameters of the compilation year under a general compiling hypothesis, which is the parameters of the compilation year could be replaced by the parameters of the short-term lag year because there is little change in short time for the structure of multi-regional trade. In order to make more effective use of the sample information of the short-term lag data, a hybrid estimation method is proposed in this paper. The results show that a hybrid estimation method can effectively improve the accuracy of prediction in processing short-term lag year data of compiling MRIO table through empirical analysis of trade flows of agricultural products, automobiles and steel among the 28 EU member states and Monte Carlo simulation. A hybrid estimation method combines the advantage of spatial regression with ordinary linear regression, it provides a good idea for compiling MRIO table.

Key words

input-output table / short-term lag / inter-regional trade / hybrid estimation method / Monte-Carlo simulation

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TANG Zhipeng , MEI Zi'ao. A hybrid estimation method of processing short-term lag year data in the compiling multi-regional input-output table. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2021, 41(1): 265-272 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2020-0381

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Funding

Funds for International Cooperation and Exchange of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41661144023); The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA19040401)
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