Product heterogeneous effects of economic policy uncertainty on imports: Big data context analysis based on Chinese newspapers

LI Bing, LIN Anqi, GUO Dongmei

Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (6) : 1578-1595.

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Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (6) : 1578-1595. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788-2020-0439-18

Product heterogeneous effects of economic policy uncertainty on imports: Big data context analysis based on Chinese newspapers

  • LI Bing1, LIN Anqi2, GUO Dongmei3
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Abstract

This paper uses Baker et al. (2016) to construct China's economic policy uncertainty index (EPU) and China's economic policy uncertainty index based on Chinese newspaper text keyword search (CEPU). Using monthly import data of about 5000 kinds of products in China from January 2010 to April 2016, we estimate the impact of EPU and CEPU on these products' import and find that economic policy uncertainty has different effects on imports of different products, both negative and positive. Further, we use BEC classification, differentiated products and homogeneous products, the number and concentration of countries in global trade, and the elasticity of import demand to characterize the heterogeneity of products and explain the differences in the impact of economic uncertainty on different products. We find that when the uncertainties of China's economic policy increase, capital goods and transport equipment are more negatively affected by imports than intermediate inputs and differentiated products are homogeneous products; the smaller the elasticity of demand substitution, the more countries imported globally, the lower the concentration of global importing countries, and the higher the concentration of global exporting countries, the negative reaction of product imports the bigger. In addition, we compare the performance of EPU and CEPU indices. CEPU index is more reasonable than the EPU index.

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economic policy uncertainty / import / product heterogeneity / big data

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LI Bing , LIN Anqi , GUO Dongmei. Product heterogeneous effects of economic policy uncertainty on imports: Big data context analysis based on Chinese newspapers. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2020, 40(6): 1578-1595 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788-2020-0439-18

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Funding

National Social Science Foundation of China (18BTJ004)
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