An evaluation of emergency materials mobilization potential based on system dynamics

WANG Zhile, ZHANG Jihai

Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (11) : 2880-2895.

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中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院期刊网
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Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (11) : 2880-2895. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788-2018-2528-16

An evaluation of emergency materials mobilization potential based on system dynamics

  • WANG Zhile1,2, ZHANG Jihai1
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Abstract

The mobilization potential of emergency materials plays an important role for the response to emergency materials under emergencies in China. This paper measures the emergency materials mobilization potential by the final product of the emergency materials after the conversion of raw materials, and establishes the emergency materials mobilization potential evaluation model using system dynamics through analyzing the internal feedback relationship of each sub-module that constitutes the emergency materials mobilization potential. Taking China's petroleum industry chain as the actual background, and the mobilization potential of refined oil as an example, using the idea of "scenario-response", this paper expands the idea of assessing the state value of mobilization potential, quantitatively assesses mobilization potential of refined oil from the aspects of total amount, a certain time point and a certain period of time. The results show that when the demand is at a low level, the reserves of crude oil and refined oil have the greatest contribution to the refined oil mobilization potential. With the increase of demand, the contribution of the company's supernormal production is gradually increasing. In addition, the four factors of the actual production capacity of emergency materials, the amount of crude oil or refined oil reserves and crude oil conversion coefficient have the greatest impact on the refined oil mobilization potential, so it should focus on improving the actual production capacity of emergency materials, the amount of raw materials or final product reserves and the productive efficiency of emergency materials.

Key words

system dynamics / emergency materials / mobilization potential / refined oil / evaluation

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WANG Zhile , ZHANG Jihai. An evaluation of emergency materials mobilization potential based on system dynamics. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2019, 39(11): 2880-2895 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788-2018-2528-16

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Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China (71473015, 71841051)
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