A three-state Bayesian network without changing the topology of RBD

WANG Yao, SUN Qin

Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (2) : 486-495.

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Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (2) : 486-495. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2017)02-0486-10

A three-state Bayesian network without changing the topology of RBD

  • WANG Yao, SUN Qin
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Abstract

An isomorphic three-mode Bayesian network (BN) method is proposed based on the topology of reliability block diagram (RBD). It overcomes the disadvantages to transform a RBD to an equivalent three-layer BN in terms of large topology distinction and combinational explosion problems. There are two modes-normal and failure in traditional RBD and three-layer models, in this paper the failure mode is further divided into two new modes:physical failure and normal but not work. Accordingly, a three-mode BN model with normal, physical failure and normal but not work is formulated to replace the original two-mode BN model. Then the conditional probability table (CPT) of each node in the three-mode BN is analyzed in further. Eventually, the equivalent three-layer BN and isomorphic three-mode BN are built for the RBD of the navigation mission of an aircraft, the two BNs are calculated and analyzed. The results demonstrate that the new three-mode BN model, which can overcome the combinational explosion problem, is an effective method for system reliability analysis.

Key words

Bayesian network / three-mode Bayesian network / combinational explosion / physic failure / normal without working

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WANG Yao , SUN Qin. A three-state Bayesian network without changing the topology of RBD. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2017, 37(2): 486-495 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788(2017)02-0486-10

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Funding

Quality and Reliability Fundamental Project of China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Twelfth Five-year Plan (2052013B003)
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