Analysis of the impact on Hong Kong's economy due to the establishment of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao bridge

ZHANG Xiaoxu, LIANG Xiaozhen, HU Yi, QIAO Han, WANG Jieguo, WANG Shouyang

Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (12) : 3026-3033.

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Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (12) : 3026-3033. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2016)12-3026-08

Analysis of the impact on Hong Kong's economy due to the establishment of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao bridge

  • ZHANG Xiaoxu1, LIANG Xiaozhen2, HU Yi1,3, QIAO Han1,3, WANG Jieguo1, WANG Shouyang1,3
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Abstract

In this paper, we calculated the impact on Hong Kong's economy due to the establishment of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao bridge. First, the amount of exports/imports between the pearl river delta cities and Hong Kong, the GDP and per capita GDP of the pearl river delta cities, the GDP and per capita GDP of Hong Kong, the distance of the pearl river delta cities to Hong Kong are chosen as indexes. The change of imports and exports amount due to the change of the distance between Hong Kong and the pearl river delta cities in 2017, 2020, 2025 and 2030, are measured by using the gravity model. And then, based on Cobb Douglas model, import/export trade indicators are introduced and scientific research level is added to the index of technological change, we measured the influence of import and export trade on Hong Kong's economy with the ridge regression estimation method. So we obtain the economic effect due to the establishment of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao bridge. At last, we put forward some suggestions.

Key words

Hong Kong economy / gravity model / ridge regression / impact analysis

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ZHANG Xiaoxu , LIANG Xiaozhen , HU Yi , QIAO Han , WANG Jieguo , WANG Shouyang. Analysis of the impact on Hong Kong's economy due to the establishment of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao bridge. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2016, 36(12): 3026-3033 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788(2016)12-3026-08

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Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China (71301160, 71373262, 71390330, 71390331); The Open Project of Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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