Ticket booking during pre-sale period is seen as Poisson. On the basis of booking quantity estimation during pre-sale period, considerations shall be given to establish dynamic overbooking model in view of the randomness of airline ticket booking. It deduces the distribution law of booking quantity in pre-sale period based on the model, works out No-Show and DB loss expectancy formula in line with airline's upper limit on overbooking, puts forward the solution to the overbooking model through enumeration method, proposes solving strategies that improve the efficiency based on model characteristics, proves the rationality of overbooking model via case analysis and numerical simulation, verifies its effectiveness and operability, proves the model increase total revenue by revising parameters under different booking intensity. Simulation results indicate low DB risk, which provides practical reference for development of airline ticket booking policy.
Key words
stochastic characteristic /
dynamic overbooking model /
No-Show /
airline revenue
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References
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Footnotes
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