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Quantitative assessment of flight risk based on extreme value theory
XUE Yuan, XU Hao-jun, HU Meng-quan
Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (2) : 538-544.
PDF(1434 KB)
PDF(1434 KB)
Quantitative assessment of flight risk based on extreme value theory
Flight risk has the characters of small probability and great hazard. In order to assess it quantitatively, extreme value theory (EVT) was adopted to analyze the distribution of decisive parameters. Firstly the fault model that takes pilot response into consideration was built, then a method of acquiring the extreme sample when the angular rate sensor breaks down was introduced. After that, the distribution of the decisive parameters was obtained using the simulation system; then non-linear model was used to replace the inaccurate linear model that is widely used in the process of identifying the extreme value distribution. In order to solve the uncertainty in the fitting process, four optimization algorithms were taken to identify the model parameters contrastively and the adaptive range particle swarm optimization (ARPSO) was found to be the best suitable algorithm. The acquired risk probability was then taken into Markov model that involves pilot mode to evaluate the compositive flight risk of control system quantitatively. The results can evaluate the dynamic reliability in some certain airplanes' control system.
flight risk probability / extreme value theory (EVT) / pilot-aircraft system / angular rate sensor / adaptive range particle swarm optimization (ARPSO) {{custom_keyword}} /
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