A method of condition monitoring and on-wing life prediction for civil aviation aircraft engine based on dynamic linear model

SUN Jian-zhong, ZUO Hong-fu, LIU Peng-peng, ZHU Lei, YUAN Feng

Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12) : 3243-3250.

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Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12) : 3243-3250. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2013)12-3243

A method of condition monitoring and on-wing life prediction for civil aviation aircraft engine based on dynamic linear model

  • SUN Jian-zhong1, ZUO Hong-fu1, LIU Peng-peng1, ZHU Lei1, YUAN Feng2
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Abstract

A method of condition monitoring and on-wing life prediction for civil aviation aircraft engine is proposed in this study. The dynamic linear model is used to describe the dynamics of the condition monitoring parameters and the Bayes factors are calculated to detect the abnormal of the parameter sequences. Case study on the simulation data set shows the feasibility of the proposed method for fault detection and a timely warning can be given once a fault occurs. The dynamic linear model can be utilized to describe the process of the engine performance deterioration, and further future evolution trend can be predicted within the Bayesian framework. The advantage of the proposed method is that the dynamic linear model can incorporate sudden changes in the performance introduced by the on-line maintenance, washing and fault. The case study on a real data set shows that the proposed method for performance prognostics can give a more reasonable prediction of the engine on-wing life since it takes the real operating conditions into account.

Key words

dynamic linear model / Bayesian state estimation and prediction / Bayes factor / engine condition monitoring / on-wing life prediction

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SUN Jian-zhong , ZUO Hong-fu , LIU Peng-peng , ZHU Lei , YUAN Feng. A method of condition monitoring and on-wing life prediction for civil aviation aircraft engine based on dynamic linear model. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2013, 33(12): 3243-3250 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788(2013)12-3243

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