Time series Leontief inverse considering production delay

TONG Ren-cheng, XU Jian

Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (10) : 2513-2523.

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Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (10) : 2513-2523. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2013)10-2513

Time series Leontief inverse considering production delay

  • TONG Ren-cheng, XU Jian
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Abstract

As the key of input-output model, Leontief inverse has usually been applied to calculate backward and forward effect and to estimate the effect of the change in final demand. Traditional Leontief inverse do not take account of the time-lag of transmission at all. Due to the existence of production cycle and distribution cycle, however, traditional Leontief inverse may generate unrealistic estimation regarding the inter-sectoral pull effects, especially in a limited period. This paper presents a new Leontief inverse formula which considers production delay. We firstly employ production cycle as the indicator of production delay, then establish a production cycle eigen matrix to represent sectors. In the following, we conduct a temporal iteration to estimate the new Leontief inverse (i.e. total requirement coefficients) for each period, according to the relationship between direct requirement coefficients and induced requirement coefficients. The iteration variables include: ① direct requirement coefficients; ② total requirement coefficients; ③ induced requirement coefficients. The key of model application is to set a reasonable production cycle.

Key words

Leontief inverse / input coefficients / production delay / time-series / input-output technique

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TONG Ren-cheng , XU Jian. Time series Leontief inverse considering production delay. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2013, 33(10): 2513-2523 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788(2013)10-2513

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