As an important source to the total real estate investment, real estate loan may have multiplier effect through endogenous growth, which can lead to a over fast growth of real estate investment. This paper tests whether the multiplier effect really exists by establishing a state space model. And the result confirms the existence of the multiplier effect. An empirical measurement of the multiplier and its convergence time is performed using historical data. Besides, this paper analyzes the influence of the loan policy, and leads to the conclusion that loan retrenchment policies have significant influences on the amount of real estate loan, while stimulating policies don't have any significant influences.
Key words
real estate loan /
multiplier effect /
state space model /
loan regulation
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