碳排放权交易试点政策的减排效应分析——基于碳排放量和碳排放效率的视角

蔡俊, 骆丹娜, 萧莘玥

系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (9) : 2838-2853.

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系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (9) : 2838-2853. DOI: 10.12011/SETP2023-0830
论文

碳排放权交易试点政策的减排效应分析——基于碳排放量和碳排放效率的视角

    蔡俊1, 骆丹娜2, 萧莘玥3
作者信息 +

Analysis of the impact of carbon emission trading on carbon emissions in pilot districts: Carbon emission volume and effciency perspectives

    CAI Jun1, LUO Danna2, XIAO Shenyue3
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摘要

准确刻画碳排放效率和正确评价碳交易政策对实现“双碳”目标具有重要的理论和实践意义.本文基于改进的随机前沿模型和双重差分模型,收集了2003-2019年30个省(市)的能源消耗及经济投入产出的面板数据,并测算了碳排放权交易政策对试点省份碳排放量和碳排放效率的影响及作用机理.实证研究发现,碳排放权交易政策可以降低试点地区4.4%的碳排放量,提高试点地区10.4%的碳排放效率,有助于推动实现“双碳”目标.机制分析表明,碳交易政策通过降低能源消耗量、调整能源结构和限制重点行业(如水泥)产能来减少碳排放量和提高碳排放效率;然而该政策并没有显著促进企业低碳技术的研发.异质性分析结果显示,在碳排放权试点政策的实施中,交易价格具有调节作用,即价格越高,减碳效果越显著.这些发现为全国范围内推广碳排放权交易政策提供了重要启示,对实现“双碳”目标具有较高的参考价值.

Abstract

Accurately depicting carbon emission efficiency and correctly evaluating the carbon trading policy has important theoretical and practical significance for achieving the "dual carbon" target. Based on an improved stochastic frontier model and a difference-in-difference model, this paper collected panel data on energy consumption and economic input-output for 30 provinces (cities) from 2003 to 2019, and calculated the impact and mechanism of the carbon emission trading policy on carbon emissions and carbon emission efficiency in pilot provinces. Empirical research found that the carbon emission trading policy can reduce carbon emissions by 4.4% in pilot areas, and increase carbon emission efficiency by 10.4%, which helps to promote the goal of achieving "carbon neutrality." Mechanism analysis shows that the carbon trading policy reduces carbon emissions and improves carbon emission efficiency by reducing energy consumption, adjusting energy structure, and limiting production capacity of key industries such as cement; however, the policy does not significantly promote the development of low-carbon technology. Heterogeneity analysis results show that in the implementation of the carbon emission trading policy, the trading price has an adjusting effect, that is, the higher the price, the more significant the carbon reduction effect. These findings provide important insights for promoting the national carbon emission trading policy and have high reference value for achieving the "dual carbon" target.

关键词

碳交易市场试点 / 碳减排效应 / 碳排放效率 / 随机前沿分析 / 双重差分模型

Key words

pilot market of carbon trading / carbon reduction effect / carbon emission efficiency / stochastic frontier analysis / difference-in-differences method

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蔡俊 , 骆丹娜 , 萧莘玥. 碳排放权交易试点政策的减排效应分析——基于碳排放量和碳排放效率的视角. 系统工程理论与实践, 2024, 44(9): 2838-2853 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2023-0830
CAI Jun , LUO Danna , XIAO Shenyue. Analysis of the impact of carbon emission trading on carbon emissions in pilot districts: Carbon emission volume and effciency perspectives. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2024, 44(9): 2838-2853 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2023-0830
中图分类号： F205    F272.5    F426   

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