国际货币竞争的主从博弈分析及其对人民币国际化的启示

代高琪, 刘赫, 纪尚伯, 汪寿阳

系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4) : 892-904.

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系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4) : 892-904. DOI: 10.12011/SETP2019-1916
论文

国际货币竞争的主从博弈分析及其对人民币国际化的启示

    代高琪1, 刘赫2,3, 纪尚伯1, 汪寿阳1,3
作者信息 +

Analysis of Stackelberg game in international currency competition and its inspiration on RMB internationalization

    DAI Gaoqi1, LIU He2,3, JI Shangbo1, WANG Shouyang1,3
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文章历史 +

摘要

人民币国际化进程必然面临来自现有主要国际货币的制约与阻力.本文从国际货币竞争的角度出发，建立了Stackelberg主从博弈模型，分析了后发的国际货币与在位的国际货币之间的博弈策略与均衡结果，研究表明，在两方国际货币的短期博弈中，一种货币的国际化进程必然造成另一国际货币利益的受损，后发的国际货币必然会受到阻力且会出现囚徒困境；但在长期反复博弈条件下，双方通过以牙还牙或利益补偿等策略互动，可能实现彼此的妥协与合作，从而达到帕累托改进的结果.因此，人民币国际化必将是一个漫长的动态的国际博弈过程.

Abstract

The process of RMB internationalization will inevitably face constraints and resistance from existing major international currencies. From the perspective of international currency competition, this paper establishes a Stackelberg model, to analyze the choice of competitive strategy and the game relationship of competition and cooperation between different international currencies. The game analysis result shows that the following currency will be suppressed by the leading currency, and the two currencies will have a prisoner's dilemma. However, under the conditions of long-term repeated games, the two currencies will achieve mutual compromise and cooperation through strategic interactions such as reciprocity or interest compensation to achieve Pareto improvements. Therefore, the internationalization of the RMB is bound to be a long and dynamic international game process.

关键词

国际货币竞争 / 人民币国际化 / Stackelberg模型 / 长期合作

Key words

international currency competition / RMB internationalization / Stackelberg model / long-term cooperation

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代高琪 , 刘赫 , 纪尚伯 , 汪寿阳. 国际货币竞争的主从博弈分析及其对人民币国际化的启示. 系统工程理论与实践, 2021, 41(4): 892-904 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2019-1916
DAI Gaoqi , LIU He , JI Shangbo , WANG Shouyang. Analysis of Stackelberg game in international currency competition and its inspiration on RMB internationalization. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2021, 41(4): 892-904 https://doi.org/10.12011/SETP2019-1916
中图分类号： F821.6    O225   

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