地震灾害生命年损失多模型评估方法研究

王威, 朱强强, 武佳佳, 马东辉, 苏经宇

系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (11) : 2953-2963.

PDF(1342 KB)
中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院期刊网
PDF(1342 KB)
系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (11) : 2953-2963. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788-2018-0416-11
论文

地震灾害生命年损失多模型评估方法研究

    王威1,2, 朱强强2, 武佳佳2, 马东辉1,2, 苏经宇1,2
作者信息 +

Research on multi-model evaluation methods for earthquake disaster lifeyears loss

    WANG Wei1,2, ZHU Qiangqiang2, WU Jiajia2, MA Donghui1,2, SU Jingyu1,2
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

传统地震灾害损失评估方法没有统一的指标对地震灾害损失进行全面的评估，这造成一些应用上的困难.为了能够对震害损失进行全面评估并进行多模型对比研究，本文给出了基于生命年的地震灾害损失多模型评估方法.通过生命年损失理论的改进以及方法参数取值的分析，确定了计算方案，并以年份、地区分组对我国震例生命年损失进行了对比研究.研究了总生命年损失随各影响因素：受灾人口、震中烈度、震级、恢复时间的变化规律，结果表明：四个影响因素均与总生命年损失呈正相关关系，且受灾人口相关性最大，其余三项依次递减.在影响因素分析的基础之上建立了线性回归模型、神经网络分位数回归模型与基因表达式编程非线性模型，并进行了对比分析.采用多模型对地震灾害生命年损失进行评估预测，减少了数据依赖性并简化了评估流程.

Abstract

The traditional evaluation methods of earthquake disaster loss does not have a unified index to make a comprehensive assessment of the loss of earthquake disaster, which will cause some difficulties in the application. In order to comprehensively evaluate the loss of earthquake disaster and carry out multiple models comparison research, this paper presents multi-model methods for evaluating the loss of earthquake disaster based on lifeyears. Through the improvement of the lifeyears loss theory and the analysis of the value of the method parameters, the calculation scheme was determined. A comparative study was conducted on the lifeyears loss of earthquake in China grouped by years and regions. The relationship between the total lifeyears loss and its influence factors, such as the affected population, the epicentral intensity, the earthquake magnitude and recovery time was studied. The results showed that four influencing factors were all positively correlated with the total lifeyears loss. The affected population has the greatest correlation and the correlation of the other three factors is decreasing in turn. The linear regression model, the neural network quantile regression model and the nonlinear model of gene expression programming were established on the basis of the analysis of the influencing factors and the comparative analysis was carried out. Earthquake disaster loss was evaluated and predicted by using the evaluation model, which reduced data dependence and simplified the assessment process.

关键词

地震 / 生命年 / 多模型 / 评估方法 / 对比研究

Key words

earthquake / lifeyears / multi-model / evaluation method / comparative study

引用本文

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

导出引用
王威 , 朱强强 , 武佳佳 , 马东辉 , 苏经宇. 地震灾害生命年损失多模型评估方法研究. 系统工程理论与实践, 2019, 39(11): 2953-2963 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788-2018-0416-11
WANG Wei , ZHU Qiangqiang , WU Jiajia , MA Donghui , SU Jingyu. Research on multi-model evaluation methods for earthquake disaster lifeyears loss. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2019, 39(11): 2953-2963 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788-2018-0416-11
中图分类号： X915.5    X43   

参考文献

[1] 马玉宏, 谢礼立. 我国社会可接受地震人员死亡率的研究[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2001, 10(3):56-63.Ma Y H, Xie L L. Research on social acceptable earthquake mortality in China[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2001, 10(3):56-63.
[2] 叶珊珊, 翟国方. 地震经济损失评估研究综述[J]. 地理科学进展, 2010, 29(6):684-692.Ye S S, Zhai G F. Review of seismic economic loss assessment[J]. Progress in Geography, 2010, 29(6):684-692.
[3] 刘金龙, 林均岐. 基于震中烈度的地震人员伤亡评估方法研究[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2012, 21(5):113-119. Liu J L, Lin J Q. Study on assessment method for earthquake casualty based on epicentral intensity[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2012, 21(5):113-119.
[4] 施伟华, 陈坤华, 谢英情, 等. 云南地震灾害人员伤亡预测方法研究[J]. 地震研究, 2012, 35(3):387-392. Shi W H, Chen K H, Xie Y Q, et al. Study on the method of predicting casualties of earthquake in Yunnan province[J]. Journal of Seismological Research, 2012, 35(3):387-392.
[5] 王艳茹, 王宝光, 戴君武, 等. "5·12" 汶川大地震人员伤亡的时空分布特点[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2009, 18(6):52-56. Wang Y R, Wang B G, Dai J W, et al. Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of casualties in great "5·12" Wenchuan earthquake[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2009, 18(6):52-56.
[6] 马玉宏, 谢礼立. 地震人员伤亡估算方法研究[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 2000, 20(4):140-147. Ma Y H, Xie L L. Methodologies for assessment of earthquake casualty[J]. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics, 2000, 20(4):140-147.
[7] 程家喻, 杨喆. 唐山地震人员震亡率与房屋倒塌率的相关分析[J]. 地震地质, 1993(1):82-87. Cheng J Y, Yang Z. Correlation analysis of earthquake death rate and collapse rate of Tangshan earthquake[J]. Seismology and Geology, 1993(1):82-87.
[8] 国家地震局灾害防御司. 中国地震灾害损失预测研究[R]. 北京:地震出版社, 1990.
[9] 丁伯阳. 介绍两种震害损失估算方法[J]. 灾害学, 1991, 6(2):45-47. Ding B Y. Two methods of earthquake damage loss evaluation[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 1991, 6(2):45-47.
[10] 温瑞智, 陶夏新. 基于GIS的生命线防震减灾系统[J]. 自然灾害学报, 1998, 7(3):84-89. Wen R Z, Tao X X. Lifeline earthquake prevention and disaster reduction system based on GIS[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 1998, 7(3):84-89.
[11] 王景来. 地震灾害损失快速评估新方法研究[J]. 地震研究, 2000(3):356-360. Wang J L. A new method for rapid assessment of earthquake disaster loss[J]. Journal of Seismological Research, 2000(3):356-360.
[12] 吴昊昱, 顾建华. 汶川地震死亡人数的Zipf分布[J]. 国际地震动态, 2008(11):168. Wu H Y, Gu J H. The Zipf distribution of the death toll in Wenchuan earthquake[J]. Recent Developments in World Seismology, 2008(11):168.
[13] 杨帆, 郑宝柱, 剡亮亮. 基于BP神经网络的地震伤亡人数评估体系研究[J]. 震灾防御技术, 2009, 4(4):428-435. Yang F, Zheng B Z, Yan L L. System of earthquake casualty assessment based on BP neural network[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention, 2009, 4(4):428-435.
[14] 蔡友军, 林均岐, 刘金龙, 等. 基于贝叶斯模型的地震直接经济损失快速评估方法研究[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 2015, 35(2):144-150. Cai Y J, Lin J Q, Liu J L, et al. Study on the rapid evaluation method for direct economic loss of earthquake based on Bayesian model[J]. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics, 2015, 35(2):144-150.
[15] 周光全, 毛燕, 施伟华. 云南地区地震受灾人口与经济损失评估[J]. 地震研究, 2004(1):88-93. Zhou G Q, Mao Y, Shi W H. Earthquake affected population and economic loss assessment in Yunnan area[J]. Journal of Seismological Research, 2004(1):88-93.
[16] 刘金龙, 林均岐, 陈希. 生命线系统地震灾害损失评估方法研究[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2012, 21(6):50-56. Liu J L, Lin J Q, Chen X. Study on loss assessment methodology for lifeline system under earthquake disaster[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2012, 21(6):50-56.
[17] 陈棋福, 陈凌. 利用国内生产总值和人口数据进行地震灾害损失预测评估[J]. 地震学报, 1997(6):640-649. Chen Q F, Chen L. Prediction and evaluation of earthquake disaster losses by using gross domestic product and population data[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 1997(6):640-649.
[18] 王晓青, 丁香, 王龙, 等. 四川汶川8级大地震灾害损失快速评估研究[J]. 地震学报, 2009, 31(2):205-211. Wang X Q, Ding X, Wang L, et al. A study on fast earthquake loss assessment and its application to 2008 Wenchuan M8 earthquake[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 2009, 31(2):205-211.
[19] 马亚杰, 李永义, 韩秀丽. 基于人工神经网络的地震经济损失评估[J]. 世界地震工程, 2007, 23(1):146-150.Ma Y J, Li Y Y, Han X L. Earthquake economic loss estimation based on the ANN[J]. World Earthquake Engineering, 2007, 23(1):146-150.
[20] 阎维明, 乔亚玲, 何浩祥. 粗糙集理论在震害预测中的应用[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2006, 15(3):147-151. Yan W M, Qiao Y L, He H X. Application of rough set theory to prediction of seismic damage[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2006, 15(3):147-151.
[21] 王龙, 王晓青, 丁香, 等. 基于遥感和GIS的建筑物震害损失评估方法研究与实现[J]. 地震, 2007, 27(4):77-83. Wang L, Wang X Q, Ding X, et al. Research and realization of damage assessment method for buildings based on remote sensing and GIS[J]. Earthquake, 2007, 27(4):77-83.
[22] 丁香, 王晓青, 窦爱霞. 基于GIS的地震现场应急指挥管理信息系统研制[J]. 地震, 2014, 34(3):160-170. Ding X, Wang X Q, Dou A X. Development of an earthquake field emergency management information system based on GIS[J]. Earthquake, 2014, 34(3):160-170.
[23] Noy I. A non-monetary global measure of the direct impact of natural disasters[R]. New Zealand:UNISDR, 2014.
[24] WHO. WHO methods and data sources for global burden of disease estimates 2000-2011[R]. Geneva:Department of Health Statistics and Information Systems, 2013.
[25] United Nations. World population prospects the 2015 revision[R]. New York:United Nations Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2015.
[26] 阎海琴. 年龄中位数指标计算公式的分析[J]. 人口研究, 1985, 9(2):51-52. Yan H Q. Analysis of the calculation formula of median age[J]. Population Research, 1985, 9(2):51-52.
[27] Murray C J L. Quantifying the burden of disease:The technical basis for disability-adjusted life years[J]. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 1994, 72(3):429-445.
[28] 吕少丽, 李士雪, 曲江斌, 等. 评价健康水平的新指标-伤残调整期望寿命[J]. 卫生经济研究, 2001(12):7-9. Lü S L, Li S X, Qu J B, et al. DALE-a new measure for health assessment[J]. Health Economics Research, 2001(12):7-9.
[29] 周尚成, 陈辉, 易卫兵. 应用伤残调整生命年评价疾病负担的方法学探究[J]. 中国慢性病预防与控制, 2011, 19(3):320-323. Zhou S C, Chen H, Yi W B. Methodological exploration of the application of disability-adjusted life year (DALY) on evaluation of disease burden[J]. Chinese Journal of Prevention and Control of Chronic Diseases, 2011, 19(3):320-323.
[30] 廖海江. 安全生产事故人员伤残间接损失统计研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2006, 16(11):34-36. Liao H J. Study on the indirect loss statistics of casualties caused by work safety accident[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2006, 16(11):34-36.

基金

国家自然科学基金（51678017）；国家重点研发计划课题（2018YFD1100902-1）；中国地震局重大政策理论与实践问题研究课题（CEAZY2019JZ14）；中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室重点专项（2019EEEV0501）
PDF(1342 KB)

Accesses

Citation

Detail
段落导航
相关文章

/

〈 〉