可增加号源策略下高需求门诊的能力配置问题

姜博文, 唐加福, 阎崇钧

系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (12) : 3146-3159.

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系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (12) : 3146-3159. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2017)12-3146-14
论文

可增加号源策略下高需求门诊的能力配置问题

    姜博文1, 唐加福2, 阎崇钧2
作者信息 +

Capacity allocation with adding capacity policy in high demand outpatient

    JIANG Bowen1, TANG Jiafu2, YAN Chongjun2
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

可增加号源策略，即在额定能力全部约满的情况下，医生可增加额外能力提供给仍有需求的患者.本文以面向预约患者和现场患者的高需求门诊为研究对象，考虑患者爽约不确定性对由额外能力产生的医生超负荷工作量的影响.联合决策额外挂号数量（简称加号数）和分配给预约患者的额定挂号数量，以使净收益期望最大.在理论上推导出额外挂号数量的阈值表达式，并证明当超过相应阈值后，净收益期望是额外挂号数量的单峰函数，其最优解可在有限解空间内决策.基于模型性质设计了求解全局联合最优解的双层枚举算法.实验结果表明，算法具有求解高效性；额外挂号数量（加号数）随爽约概率的增大而增加，受额定挂号数量的影响不大；加号策略有效增强了分配给预约患者的额定挂号数量面对爽约概率变化下的稳定性.

Abstract

Adding capacity policy allows doctors use additional capacity to satisfy patient demand when all regular capacity is booked. This paper is studied for a high demand outpatient, which serves scheduled patients and same-day patients. The impact of the uncertainty of patient no-show on the overload brought by additional capacity is incorporated. This paper aims to determine the number of additional capacity and the number of regular capacity allocated to the scheduled patients towards the maximal expected profit. We prove that the expected profit is the unimodal function of additional capacity when its number exceeds a threshold. The threshold expression is also derived in theory. Hence, the optimal additional capacity number can be searched within a finite solution space. Based on the unimodality, a two-tier enumeration algorithm is proposed to search the global optimal joint solution. Numerical experiments indicate that the designed algorithm performs efficiently on solving the model. The number of additional capacity increases with no-show rates, and is hardly affected by the regular capacity. Moreover, the adding capacity effectively enhances the stability of the number of regular capacity allocated to scheduled patients when facing changes of no-show probabilities.

关键词

预约 / 爽约 / 单峰性质 / 阈值 / 双层枚举算法

Key words

appointment / no-show / unimodality property / threshold / two-tier enumeration algorithm

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姜博文 , 唐加福 , 阎崇钧. 可增加号源策略下高需求门诊的能力配置问题. 系统工程理论与实践, 2017, 37(12): 3146-3159 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788(2017)12-3146-14
JIANG Bowen , TANG Jiafu , YAN Chongjun. Capacity allocation with adding capacity policy in high demand outpatient. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2017, 37(12): 3146-3159 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788(2017)12-3146-14
中图分类号： N945   

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基金

国家自然科学基金（71420107028，71501027）
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