基于不确定微分方程的网络舆情传播模型研究

苏创, 彭锦, 李圣国

系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (12) : 3201-3209.

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系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (12) : 3201-3209. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2015)12-3201
论文

基于不确定微分方程的网络舆情传播模型研究

    苏创1, 彭锦2, 李圣国2
作者信息 +

The internet public opinion propagation model via uncertain differential equation

    SU Chuang1, PENG Jin2, LI Sheng-guo2
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

不确定微分方程是由典范过程驱动的一类微分方程, 是一 种描述不确定过程或不确定动态系统的新型数学工具. 本文在研究网络舆情传播过程和传播类型的基础上, 充分考虑网络舆情传播过程中存在的一些不确定因素, 根据网络舆情传播的不同阶段提出相应的基于不确定微分方程的网络舆情传 播模型. 最后结合甘肃兰州自来水苯含量超标事件给出了衰退阶段模型的数值计算实例, 预测结果与实际传播情况基本吻合.

Abstract

Uncertain differential equation is a type of differential equation driven by canonical process, is a new mathematical tool for describing uncertain process or uncertain dynamical system. Based on the research of the propagation process and propagation types of internet public opinion, and fully considering some uncertain factors that exist in the process of the internet public opinion propagation, we put forward the models of internet public opinion propagation which are based on uncertain differential equation according to the different stages of internet public opinion propagation. Finally, we provide numerical examples of recession phase model which are combining with the event of benzene exceed bid of water supply from Lanzhou, Gansu, and the predicted results basically tally with the actual propagation facts.

关键词

网络舆情 / 不确定动态系统 / 不确定过程 / 不确定微分方程

Key words

internet public opinion / uncertain dynamical system / uncertain process / uncertain differential equation

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苏创 , 彭锦 , 李圣国. 基于不确定微分方程的网络舆情传播模型研究. 系统工程理论与实践, 2015, 35(12): 3201-3209 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788(2015)12-3201
SU Chuang , PENG Jin , LI Sheng-guo. The internet public opinion propagation model via uncertain differential equation. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2015, 35(12): 3201-3209 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788(2015)12-3201
中图分类号： G353.1   

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基金

教育部人文社科研究项目(13YJA630065)
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