由于结构分解方法（SDA）的非唯一性缺点，对一种变量变化存在多种分解形式和分析方法，且结果存在一定差异.基于此，引入一种更为全面的分解方法，路径基础法（PBM），通过对参数的估算来描述并确定时间路径，精确分析各变量对总变化产生的影响.以甘肃省为例，对2002年至2007年间本地用水总量变化进行了分解研究. 利用PBM对用水强度，生产技术和最终需求三因素变化对用水总量变化的影响进行了实证分析.结果表明：大多数部门用水强度降低导致了本地用水量的减少；生产技术的改变导致了本地用水量的减少；各产业部门最终需求的增加导致了本地用水量的增加.通过对三个影响因素的综合研究发现，种植业中三个因素对本地用水总量变化的影响最大，这说明甘肃省用水量变化主要是由种植业的用水变化决定的.
Abstract
There are many methods of decomposition in traditional structural decomposition analysis (SDA) due to non-uniqueness. The random selection of SDA often causes differences in results. Based on this, we introduced a new method, called path-based method (PBM), to precisely analyze the impact of elements on the total variations. In this paper, taking Gansu province as research area, the changes in local water resource utilization were investigated from 2002 to 2007. PBM was used to analyze the impacts of local water utilization with water utilization intensity, production technology and final demand. Results show that declining water utilization per unit of gross output leads to lower local water resource utilization in most sectors; the effect of production technology suggests that the change in production technology causes a decrease trend in local water resource utilization; increasing final demand always yields increasing water resource utilization. Through the study of three factors affecting water resource utilization, cultivation accounts for the largest portion in the contribution of the changes in water resource utilization. It indicates that local water resource utilization is mainly decided by cultivation in Gansu province.
关键词
结构分解分析 /
路径基础法 /
最大熵法 /
用水量 /
甘肃省
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Key words
structural decomposition analysis /
path-based method /
maximum entropy /
water resource utilization /
Gansu
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中图分类号：
F293
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脚注
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基金
国家自然科学基金（91025013）；国家自然科学基础人才培养基金“冰川学冻土学特殊学科点”（J1210003/J0109）
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