模型验证——基于主体建模的方法论问题

杨敏, 熊则见

系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (6) : 1458-1470.

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系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (6) : 1458-1470. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2013)6-1458
论文

模型验证——基于主体建模的方法论问题

    杨敏, 熊则见
作者信息 +

Model validation — Methodological problems in agent-based modeling

    YANG Min, XIONG Ze-jian
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

基于主体的(agent-based, AB)建模已成为目前社会经济系统复杂性分析的重要方法, 但由于缺乏有效的模型验证导致AB 建模方法还未能得到主流研究者的认同. 本文比较了AB建模和基于方程(equation-based, EB)建模在建模过程上的区别, 从结果验证、过程验证和模型对接研究三个方面回顾了AB模型验证的主要方法论问题和相关研究进展, 指出建模工具标准化、一致性判断、灵敏度分析和参数空间压缩技术是未来AB 模型验证的主要方向.

Abstract

Agent-based modeling has become an important method for analyzing the complexity in socio-economic system. But due to lack of effective model validation, this method has not been accepted by the mainstream researchers. The paper compares agent-based modeling with equation-based modeling in aspect of modeling procedure, and reviews the main methodological problems and relative research advances in validation of agent-based models from three aspects: outcome validating, procedure validation and model docking. We argue that standardization of agent-based modeling tools, consistency judgment, sensitivity analysis, and parameter space reduction technique will be the promising research directions in validating agent-based models.

关键词

基于主体建模 / 模型验证 / 结果验证 / 过程验证 / 模型对接

Key words

agent-based modeling / model validation / outcome validation / procedure validation / model docking

引用本文

导出引用
杨敏 , 熊则见. 模型验证——基于主体建模的方法论问题. 系统工程理论与实践, 2013, 33(6): 1458-1470 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788(2013)6-1458
YANG Min , XIONG Ze-jian. Model validation — Methodological problems in agent-based modeling. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2013, 33(6): 1458-1470 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788(2013)6-1458
中图分类号: N941   

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基金

国家自然科学基金(71271014, 71271019);技术基础研究课题(Z132012A002)

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