我国宏观经济-房地产动态可计算一般均衡模型研究

蒋雪梅, 麦音华, 汪寿阳

系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12) : 3035-3039.

PDF(697 KB)
PDF(697 KB)
系统工程理论与实践 ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12) : 3035-3039. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2013)12-3035
论文

我国宏观经济-房地产动态可计算一般均衡模型研究

    蒋雪梅1, 麦音华2, 汪寿阳1
作者信息 +

Study on dynamic computable general equilibrium model for China’s real estate and macro-economy

    JIANG Xue-mei1, MAI Yin-hua2, WANG Shou-yang1
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

基于动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型对政策进行外生模拟,可以对中长期内政策实施后的宏观经济效应进行预测,从而据此为政策的制定、实施提供科学参考.通过引入存量住宅部门定义,对我国存量住宅的相关数据进行估计,建立了我国宏观经济-房地产动态可计算一般均衡模型,为房地产市场相关政策的效应分析提供了一个具有较强通用性的研究工具.之后,以新建3600万套保障性安居工程计划为例,示范了如何将政策量化为模型的外生冲击,并模拟了该政策实施后的经济影响.相较于传统的动态CGE模型,该模型将存量住宅市场的供给与需求均衡考虑进了模型体系中,基于该模型框架,可以比较全面地考察相关政策措施对宏观经济及房地产市场的影响.

Abstract

Dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model has been widely used to forecast and simulate the policy effects in medium and long term. By introducing the concept of owner occupied dwelling sector and estimating the baseline data, this paper develops a dynamic CGE model for China's real estate and macro-economy, to simulate the effects of policy in real estate market. Using 36 million units of social welfare housing project as an example, this paper shows how to calculate shocks in model based on the real policy and analyze the policy effects. Compared with traditional dynamic CGE model, this model takes the equilibrium in supply and demand in stock market into account, so that it can better simulate the policy effects on macro-economy and real estate market.

关键词

动态可计算一般均衡模型 / 保障性住房 / 宏观经济影响

Key words

dynamic computable general equilibrium model / social welfare housing / effect on macro-economy

引用本文

导出引用
蒋雪梅 , 麦音华 , 汪寿阳. 我国宏观经济-房地产动态可计算一般均衡模型研究. 系统工程理论与实践, 2013, 33(12): 3035-3039 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788(2013)12-3035
JIANG Xue-mei , MAI Yin-hua , WANG Shou-yang. Study on dynamic computable general equilibrium model for China’s real estate and macro-economy. Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice, 2013, 33(12): 3035-3039 https://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788(2013)12-3035
中图分类号: F224   

参考文献

[1] 何好俊, 祝树金, 肖皓. 中澳自贸区建立关税削减影响中国农业的CGE研究[J]. 经济问题探索, 2009(11): 151-156.
[2] 祝树金, 彭思思, 谢锐. 投资自由化背景下新加坡对华投资的动态一般均衡分析[J]. 中国软科学, 2011(3): 46-55.Zhu S J, Peng S S, Xie R. A dynamic CGE analysis of Singapore's investment in China under the background of investment liberalization[J]. China Soft Science, 2011(3): 46-55.
[3] 张葆君, 胡宗义. 人民币升值对通货膨胀影响的CGE研究[J]. 统计与决策, 2008(5): 134-137.
[4] 胡宗义, 刘亦文, 杨柳. 人民币升值对通货膨胀的抑制效应分析——基于一个动态CGE的分析[J]. 预测, 2010(5): 42-47.Hu Z Y, Liu Y W, Yang L. An analysis on the inhibitory effect of RMB appreciation on inflation—Analysis based on a dynamic CGE angle[J]. Forecasting, 2010(5): 42-47.
[5] 鲍勤, 汤铃, 杨烈勋, 等. 能源节约型技术进步下碳关税对中国经济与环境的影响——基于动态递归可计算一般均衡模型[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2011(2): 175-186.Bao Q, Tang L, Yang L X, et al. How will energy-saving technology change the impacts of carbon border adjustments on China: An estimation based on dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2011(2): 175-186.
[6] 鲍勤,汤铃,汪寿阳,等.美国碳关税对我国经济的影响程度究竟如何?——基于DCGE模型的分析[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2013, 33(2): 345-353.Bao Q, Tang L, Wang S Y, et al. Impacts of USA's carbon motivated border tax adjustments on China's economy: An analysis based on dynamic computable general equilibrium model[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice, 2013, 33(2): 345-353.
[7] 赖明勇, 肖皓, 陈雯, 等. 不同环节燃油税征收的动态一般均衡分析与政策选择[J]. 世界经济, 2008(11): 65-76.Lai M Y, Xiao H, Chen W, et al. A dynamic general equilibrium analysis on oil tax[J]. The Journal of World Economy, 2008(11): 65-76.
[8] 高颖, 李善同. 可持续发展框架下的递推动态CGE模型构建研究[J]. 未来与发展, 2009(1): 12-16.Gao Y, Li S T. Study on the construction of dynamic recursive CGE model within a sustainable development[J]. Future and Development, 2009(1): 12-16.
[9] Mayerhauser N, Reinsdorf M. Housing services in the national economic accounts[R]. BEA Working Paper, 2007.
[10] Woolford K. Treatment of owner-occupied housing in Australia: Concepts and practices[M]. Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2005.
[11] Arai H. Estimating imputed rent for owner-occupied dwellings in the Japanese system of national accounts[R]. ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.141, 2005.
[12] Eurostat Manual. Technical manual on OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING[EB/OL]. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa. eu/portal/page/portal/hicp/documents/Tab/Tab/, 2010.
[13] Waters E C, Holland D W, Weber B A. Economic impacts of a property tax limitation: A computable general equilibrium analysis of Oregon's measure 5[J]. Land Economics, 1997, 73(1): 72-89.
[14] Anas A, Amott R J. Taxes and allowances in a dynamic equilibrium model of urban housing with a size-quality hierarchy[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 1997, 27: 547-580.
[15] Nechyba T J. Replacing capital taxes with land taxes: Efficiency and distributional implications with an application to the United States economy[M]// Dick N. Land Value Taxation: Can It Will Work Today? Cambridge (MA), Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, 1998.
[16] Bye B, Avitsland T. The welfare effects of housing taxation in a distorted economy: A general equilibrium analysis[J]. Economic Modelling, 2003, 20: 895-921.
[17] O'Connell M. A general equilibrium analysis of property tax in Florida[D]. University of Florida, 2007.
[18] Mai Y, Dixon P B, Rimmer M. CHINAGEM: A Monash-styled dynamic CGE model of China[R]. CoPS General Paper, No.G-201, 2010.
[19] Dixon P B, Rimmer M. Dynamic general equilibrium modelling for forecasting and policy: A practical guide and documentation of MONASH[M]. North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, 2002.
[20] Ahuja A, Cheung L, Han G, et al. Are house prices rising too fast in China?[R]. IMF Working Paper, 2010.
[21] Dixon P B, Pearson K R, Picton M R, et al. Rational expectations for large CGE models: A practical algorithm and a policy application[J]. Economic Modelling, 2005, 22(6): 1001-1019.
PDF(697 KB)

530

Accesses

0

Citation

Detail

段落导航
相关文章

/