由于模型复杂、计算困难, Weibull型备件的需求量通常采用指数型备件的需求模型进行近似计算(称为指数算法). 虽然指数算法计算简单, 工程应用方便, 但结果保守, 容易造成备件资源的浪费. 文章根据"累积失效概率相等"原则, 利用Weibull型与指数型备件在保障时间内期望累积故障次数相等的关系, 提出一种改进的指数算法, 能够更加方便准确地确定备件需求量. 通过蒙特卡洛模拟和算法比较, 结果显示: 当保障时间小于平均寿命时, 改进算法的计算结果比原指数算法的保守度大大降低, 更加接近真实需求量, 从而能够有效减少备件的浪费.
Abstract
Due to the complexity and difficulty of the model, the demand of the Weibull-distributed spare is often computed with the model of the exponential-distributed spare, often called exponential method. Although simple in calculation and convenient in engineering, the result of this method is often conservative to a large extent, and then results in waste of resources. Based on the principle of cumulative failure probability equal, and the relation that the expected accumulative failure number of the Weibull-distributed as well as the exponential-distributed spare is equal, it proposes an improved algorithm of the exponential method. It is more convenient and accurate to acquire the demand of spare. Through Monte-Carlo simulation and algorithm contrast, research shows that the result with the improved method reduces the conservativeness largely. It is more close to the real demand when the support time is shorter than the average life-span. It will prevent from the spare waste with this method.
关键词
Weibull分布 /
备件需求 /
指数算法 /
蒙特卡洛模拟
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Key words
Weibull-distributed /
demand of the spare /
exponential method /
Monte-Carlo simulation
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中图分类号：
TP391.9
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参考文献
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脚注
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基金
总装预研项目(51327020105, 51304010206);海军工程大学博士创新基金(HJBSJJ2011009)
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