高含硫、高压、高产的“三高"气田的钻完井事故概率计算是国内外钻完井事故风险评价中的重点和难点,为全面刻画事故发生机理, 合理计算事故风险概率,针对三高气田钻完井阶段事故风险建立了事故树,结合事故树仿真方法和贝叶斯修正方法提出了三高气田钻完井事故风险概率评估方法,将现有现场统计资料和专家判断相结合,对基本事件失效率及失效概率进行统计推断, 并利用Monte Carlo仿真得到井喷事故及相关事故的失效概率分布. 实证结果表明,该研究方法有效弥补了因样本数据有限和经验判断差异带来的不确定性,可以为三高气田事故风险定量评价提供依据.
Abstract
The accident probability calculation of the gas fields with high sulfur content, high pressure, and high yield (3-highs) has been the focal and difficult point in risk assessment for gas well drilling accidents in China and abroad. In order to calculate the accident rate reasonably, the paper used the fault tree method and Bayesian updating to research the accident probability of the gas well drilling with 3-highs. Firstly, the paper described the mechanism of the accidents using fault tree analysis (FTA), then made use of Bayesian method to update existing statistic data for reducing uncertainty, and got the probability distributions of the top event and related incidents with Monte Carlo simulation finally. Empirical results show that the method could effectively reduce the uncertainty arisen from limited sample data and judge difference from experts, and could provide reference for quantitative risk assessment of the gas well drilling with 3-highs.
关键词
事故树分析法(FTA) /
事故概率 /
Monte Carlo仿真 /
定量风险评价 /
井喷
{{custom_keyword}} /
Key words
fault tree analysis (FTA) /
accident probability /
Monte Carlo simulation /
quantitative risk assessment /
blowout
{{custom_keyword}} /
中图分类号：
X937
{{custom_clc.code}}
({{custom_clc.text}})
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] 戴金星,胡见义,贾承造,等.科学安全勘探开发高硫化氢天然气田的建议[J]．石油勘探与开发,2004,31(2): 1-4.Dai J X,Hu J Y,Jia C Z,et al.Suggestions for scientifically and safely exploring and developing high H2S gas fields[J].Petroleum Exploration and Development,2004,31(2): 1-4.
[2] 贾承造,赵政璋,杜金虎,等.中国石油重点勘探领域-地质认识、核心技术、勘探成效及勘探方向[J].石油勘探与开发,2008,35(4): 385-396.Jia C Z,Zhao Z Z,Du J H,et al.Petro China key exploration domains: Geological cognition,core technology,exploration effect and exploration direction[J].Petroleum Exploration and Development,2008,35(4): 385-396.
[3] 刘铁民.低概率重大事故风险与定量风险评价[J].安全与环境学报,2004,4(2): 89-91.Liu T M.Quantified risk assessment for low probability major accidents[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2004,4(2):89-91.
[4] 高永海,孙宝江,曹式敬,等.用事故树法对深水井控进行风险评估[J].石油钻采工艺,2008,30(2): 23-27.Gao Y H,Sun B J,Cao S J,et al.Risk assessment on well control in deep water drilling based on fault tree analysis[J].Oil Drilling & Production Technology,2008,30(2): 23-27.
[5] 吴庆善,钱新明,郭再富.含硫气井井喷事故受体致死概率分析[J].石油勘探与开发,2009,36(5): 641-645.Wu Q S,Qian X M,Guo Z F.Probability of receptor lethality in blowout of sour gas wells[J].Petroleum Exploration and Development,2009,36(5): 641-645.
[6] Yang X L,Rogers W,Mannan M.Uncertainty reduction for improved mishap probability prediction: Application to level control of distillation unit[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2010,23(1): 149-156.
[7] 蒋希文.钻井事故与复杂问题[M].北京: 石油工业出版社,2002.Jiang X W.Drilling Accidents and Complex Issues[M].Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press,2002.
[8] 孙红梅,高齐圣,朴营国.关于事故树分析中几种典型重要度的研究[J].可靠性与环境适应性理论研究,2007,25(2): 39-42.Sun H M,Gao Q S,Piao Y G.On several typical importances in fault tree analysis[J].Electronic Product Reliability and Environmental Testing,2007,25(2): 39-42.
[9] Box G E P,Tiao G C.Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis[M].New York: Addison-Wesley,1973.
[10] 张鹏,陈代树.钻井安全作业人员可靠性分析[J].石油工业技术监督,2008,24(12): 35-41.Zhang P,Chen D S.Drilling safety working people reliability analysis[J].Technology Supervision in Petroleum Industry,2008,24(12): 35-41.
[11] 中国石油天然气集团公司工程技术与市场部.井喷事故案例汇编[M].北京: 石油工业出版社,2006.China National Petroleum Corporation Engineering Technology and Market Department.Blowout Accidents Cases Reports[M].Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press,2006.
[12] 中国石油钻井编辑委员会.中国石油钻井.综合卷[M].北京: 石油工业出版社,2007.China Petroleum Well Drilling Committee.China Petroleum Well Drilling.Comprehensive Volume[M].Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press,2007.
[13] 苗锡庆.钻井工程事故案例[M].北京: 石油工业出版社,1994.Miao X Q.Drilling Engineering Accidents Cases[M].Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press,1994.
[14] Rezaei C,Al Mehairy M M K,Al Marzooqi A,et al.Health,safety and environment impact assessment for onshore sour gas wells[C]// SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,New Orleans,Louisiana,30 September-3 October 2001: 71439-MS.
[15] Dowsett I,Holizki L.Public safety considerations near critical sour gas facilities[R].Beijing: RWDI West Inc,2004.
{{custom_fnGroup.title_cn}}
脚注
{{custom_fn.content}}
基金
国家自然科学基金(70825001,71133005);国家科技支撑计划(2008BAB37B05-01)
{{custom_fund}}
PDF(949 KB)
