针对GM(1, 1)模型应用的局限性, 根据实际应用的需要, 利用灰色建模思想构建了含时间幂次项的灰色GM(1,1,tα) 模型, 对该模型的建模过程、参数估计、时间响应式进行了研究, 并讨论了α几种特殊取值下的该模型的性质、适用范围、时间响应式, 并利用GM(1,1,t2) 对某沿海高速的软土地基沉降进行了拟合与预测, 获得了较高的拟合与预测精度, 通过实际应用检验了所构建的模型的有效性.
Abstract
In view of limitation of the GM(1,1) model, constructed GM(1,1,tα) model with time power using the theory of grey system modeling thought according to the practical application need. Studied this model's modeling process, parameter estimation, time response formula, and use the GM(1,1,t2) model to forecast the embankment on soft ground of some coastal highway, high precision of the forecasting and fitting obtained in the application has proven this new model's effectiveness.
关键词
灰色系统 /
GM(1,1)模型 /
GM(1,1,tα)模型 /
建模机理
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Key words
grey systems /
GM(1,1) model /
GM(1,1,tα) model /
modeling mechanism
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脚注
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基金
国家自然科学基金(70902026); 国家社会科学基金重点项目(08AJY024); 江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CX10B-045R); 南京航空航天大学博士学位论文创新创优基金(BCXJ10-13)
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