为研究互联网个体交互,描述网络舆论演化与群体意见形成,建立了人员个性不完全信息博弈的策略选择模型,并对其进行了仿真和分析．根据网络交互的信息不对称性,提出了基于个体自信程度的不完全信息的支付矩阵,并使用海萨尼转换分析了博弈的贝叶斯纳什均衡;进一步地引入了个体记忆,通过交互进程更新了个体对邻居个性的认识．仿真结果表明,在不完全信息环境下,系统收敛时间更短,信息传播更快．研究内容有助于理解网络事件更易产生一致意见的演化规律,为网络舆论的引导策略提供参考和借鉴．

To study individual interactions and describe opinion dynamics and consensus formation on Internet, the process of strategy selection is modeled and simulated by game theory with incomplete information of personal characters. According to the asymmetry of information in network communication, the paper presents a payment matrix with incomplete information based on human self-confidence, and uses Harsanyi transformation to analyze the Bayesian Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, memory of agents is introduced, and the acquaintance for neighbors’ personality is updated through the process of communication. Simulation and analysis results prove under circumstances of incomplete information, convergence time is shortened and information spreads more quickly. The content helps to understand the diffusion process of network events which generate consensus easily, and can serve as reference for guiding public opinion on Internet.