在分析和归纳现有文献对生猪价格波动研究的基础上,分析了生猪价格波动的结构性原因,并构建了因果分析图和系统动力学流图;在此基础上,建立了系统动力学模型,并进行了仿真分析.结果表明:生产延迟和较大的供给价格弹性是生猪价格大幅波动的本质因素;政府的冻肉收储和母猪保险补贴等政策并不能改变生猪价格大幅波动的规律;只有通过提高生猪饲养规模程度和专业化程度,并配合生猪期货交易,以降低生猪价格供给弹性,才能从根本上改变生猪价格大幅度波动的规律.

A cause-and-effect diagram and a System Dynamic Flow Chart about the pig price fluctuation were drawn in first. And the System Dynamic Model was built based on the flow chart. Then, make simulation for the influence factor of pig price fluctuation and the government policy to adjust and control the pig price. The result shows: the production delays and the larger price elasticity of supply is the basic reason of the pig price fluctuation; the center government policy about frozen meat reserves, and sow insurance subsidies can not change the discipline of the pig price fluctuation; the only way to change the discipline of the pig price fluctuation is to reduce the supply price flexibility by increasing the degree of the scale rearing and the specialization.