In this paper, to study the production capacity expansion decision under uncertain marketing environment, the multi-period capacity planning models are built based on scenario analysis.There are two kinds of models considered: In the predictive model,the capacity investment plan doesn't change with the realistic scenarios of the stochastic market. In another one, the adaptive model, decision maker can change his investment project according to the realistic marketing scenarios. Numerical study demonstrates the decision results of these models. Furthermore, the decision risk of investment is discussed by a predictive capacity planning model that integrates the expected revenue risk. Using the downside risk analysis method, the model considers a constraint based on the expected downside risk, which represents the decision maker's risk preference. The decision difference between the model with risk and the model without risk is explored by numerical study.
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