本文将含油储层中任一直线穿越孔隙合理地假设为Ｐｏｉｓｓｏｎ过程，应用概率论和随机过程的有关方法，综合利用孔隙大小的统计分布及其它储层参数，导出注水开采油藏任一宏观流线上水淹速度的表在式，为进行误差估计，同时导出了这一速度的方差表达式，从而解决了注水开采油藏任一时刻水浸范围及含水饱和度的分析预测问题．文章结果还可用于生产井见水时间及含水率变化的分析计算，实例验证了上述理论结果，并示范了具体计算的方法步骤．

In this paper, based on supposing the porosity distribution of a crossed formation straight line saifies Poisson process, bread out velocity formula of formation water in any stream line has been put forward by applying stochastic process theory, probabilitic method, pore siz statistical distribution and other formation parameters in the water injection reservoirs. In order to estimate the error, a deviation formula for this velocity has been also presented. Therefore, we can apply these formulae in this pa...