本文首先指出了Ｂａｙｅｓ方法和冗余系统的重要性,然后,提出了建模的数学背景,并作出并联系统的Ｂａｙｅｓ可靠性分析,最后给出了算例和分析结果.

In this parper, we present importance of Bayes methods and redundant’ system. Then we propose mathematical background of modelling, and we make Bayesian reliability analysis. Finally, we give numerical example and analysis results.